![]() |
|
|

Well the stats are out. The market did perform quite well in May as was expected. The main points are:
1) May Sales (2161 sales) are consistent with 2005 numbers (before we had our boom in 2006-07). The sales are not recordbreaking but strong. Throughout 2008 we never sold more than 2000 homes in a month. Year to date sales are still lower than 2008 (by 8%).
2) Listing inventory is DOWN 100 properties from April. Normally May is the peak level of inventory for the calender year.
3) PRICES are being impacted up by 4%. Buyers are shifting up in price, this is the first month we have really seen a dramatic change for both condos and single family dwellings.
4) We are now sitting at 3.4 months of inventory which is more of a Sellers' market than a balanced market.
The big question out there is will this strength continue. The supply and demand definitely indicate prices should increase (as they have). Our sales are very similar (actually we are down by 8% year to date) to 2008. The difference is on the supply side. Our number of listings are way down (30% range). That is what has kicked the market out of a buyers' market and into a sellers' market. As I had mentioned in a previous post, the one wild card that is out there is interest rates. If interest rates move up 1 to 2%, I think the market will cool off quickly. In 2006 and 2007 it was more of a "I have to buy before prices go up and I'm going to get rich" mentality. This year it has been more of a "I can finally afford a home now with the reduction in prices and interest rates" . This is more of an affordablity driven market, 2006-07 was more of a speculative panic market. That is why I am cautiously optimistic in the market, but also know that a return to the boom months of 5% price increase per month is probably unlikely.
We did see an increase of prices by 4% last month, I just don't see that becoming a pattern in 2009. If anyone has any thoughts on the market, I would love to hear them.
![]() |
|
|
Hi everyone. It looks like we will end up with close to 2250 sales for May (up from 1843 in April)and an inventory of 7500 homes for sale (close to April's numbers). The market is now tipping more towards a Seller's Market than a balanced market. We only have a 3 month supply of homes for sale with the current rate of sales. The market currently is very strong.
The only thing that could pour some cold water on the market is the talk that interest rates are going up. Our market has been very price sensitive. 50% of the sales are under $300,000 and that has not changed since the beginning of 2009. I think an interest rate increase combined with price increases will knock out alot of buyers that are in the market right now. So, I am cautiously optimistic on the market.
I will be putting out the official stats once they are posted by the Edmonton Realtors Association.
![]() |
|
|
I’ve been noticing more and more lately how Edmonton real estate agents are forming teams to “Serve you better”. But I have to ask, does it really benefit the customers? Sometimes it does. Sometimes it’s just a marketing strategy. I’ve spent some time on this subject over the past year, as I’ve been rebuilding my own real estate business. Through this, I’ve categorized real estate teams into 3 groups: 1. More Agents, Not More Clients This is a fairly rare model in the Edmonton real estate landscape, but one that I think should be noted all the same. I’ve only seen it successfully dome once, and that’s by a couple of guys in my own ReMax office. They go together on all of their appointments, so that the clients know both of them. This would be a highly effective model for the client, as they get 2 agents present for all discussions. They also benefit from never being “handed off” when their agent goes on holiday; as these 2 guys never holiday together. The weakness is in the cash-flow. You have 2 agents who have to make a living from a single set of clients. That means 2 office bills, 2 mortgages, 2 car payments, etc. But they make the same as a single agent, so there’s less margin available. That means less advertising when the market gets tight. 2. Several agents, several clients. This real estate model is what we see most in Edmonton. It’s the flavor of the decade, as it were. Basically, a bunch of agents get together and become a team. They service their individual clients, pool their production to get more awards, and share some marketing costs to reduce expenses or increase their reach. The advantage here is that you tend to get a professional group of agents. They usually group around a single experienced real estate agent (the rainmaker) who leads the team and gives everyone direction. Their expenses are lower than single agents, so they can do more marketing to bring in new business. The disadvantage is that this doesn’t really ever benefit the client. Why not? Well… you only ever deal with 1 agent at a time. So 1, 2, or 10 agents doesn’t matter; only 1 of them can show you homes or negotiate your offer at a time. I spent 7 years in this business model, and I have to admit that it is effective. The biggest advantage in my opinion was that I could take a day off, recharge my batteries, and know that my clients were being taken care of. 3. 1-2 Agents and a Group of Specialties In Edmonton we don’t see this a lot. In fact, I can only think of 3 or 4 instances of it existing. But it is, from a customer standpoint, the most powerful and effective team possible. Typically there’s only 1 agent on this team (sometimes 2) rather than a group of realtors. He/she can often be identified by massive production and very little free time. What makes this model so ridiculously effective is that the additional team members aren’t Realtors… they’re unlicensed support personnel, and industry professionals. I first came across this model in Souther California. A single Relator was selling about 350 homes per year, with no “buyers agents”. Instead he had more than a dozen administrators who were incredibly effective at their own job; they were the best at what they do. He also had industry professionals who were on his team. But they didn’t just have him as a referral source, like most inspectors/lawyers/lenders interact with most Realtors, but instead were available “as part of the team” to contribute wherever they could. So he had a lawyer on speed dial to answer litigation questions for him. He had a termite inspector to assess the situation over the phone (am I ever glad I live in Edmonton, where termites aren’t an issue!). The effectiveness of this model is amazing to behold. With a single Realtor, there’s only 1 direction. This means the team moves forward quickly, and can adjust to changing market conditions very quickly. Because each team member of specialized, the client gets a higher level of service from the team as a whole. Costs are reduced for the client because much of this advice and “on call” service is free; it’s just part of the package. So why don’t we see it more often? Well, there’s 2 big reasons. First, it requires a ridiculous amount of personal time and commitment from the Realtor. Every single phone call, all the showings, every listing and seller… it’s all 1 person. Can you spell b-u-r-n-o-u-t ?? Second, building such a team is hard to do. Finding the right professionals, the right personalities, and trusting them to do their part the right way… that’s not easy to do! So there you have it; 3 “team models” that exist in the Edmonton real estate market. Which would you want representing you?
![]() |
|
|
With the the hint of warmer weather and a couple of dead cat bounces, market sentiment seems up. I'd say that for Edmonton real estate it is a combination of the increasingly lower prime rates; soon banks will be stuffing dollars into our pockets. And the cyclical
lift that spring/summer bring to home listings and sales.
Folks that have been waiting to buy are now cautiously dipping a toe or two testing the waters. Is it a good time to buy? Yes, of course it is - whenever you buy for cashflow in a fundamentally strong area, it is a good thing.
Did you know that CMHC has even backed mortgages for commercial multi-family apartment buildings for as low as 3.45% for a 35 year amortization?
Incredible... CASH FLOW CASH FLOW CASH FLOW!
It's great to see so many people taking action and adding additional properties to their portfolios. What an excellent time to build up cash flow and put another brick into the financial fortress.
“Formal education will make you a living; self-education will make you a fortune.” -Jim Rohn
![]() |
|
|
I was working on a graph that shows the number of properties sold in the Metro Edmonton area over the last 5 years. It clearly shows that May is normally our peak month for number of sales. The red line is this year's sales numbers. If the pattern continues we could see 2000 properties sold in May. That would put us on track with 2008 (blue line) and 2005 (yellow line) sales volume. 2006 (black line) and 2007 (green line) were unusual speculative years and should not be considered a "normal" number of sales.
The market has definitely been brisk. Our days on market average continues to fall (from the 70 days range to 58 days)and the list to sale's price ratio (ie how much the buyers are getting off the price) has been rising. These are two clear signals that the market is strengthening.
ActiveRain Corp. is not responsible for the accuracy of the site's content (which is written by members of the ActiveRain Real Estate Network) and does not endorse the views of the real estate agents, mortgage brokers, and others listed here.
Powered by the ActiveRain Real Estate Network
© 2009 ActiveRain Corp. All Rights Reserved