Daphne, AL

2008? Whew! Glad that's over.

2009? At least we know what we're dealing with.

Here's a backward look on a sorry year in real estate, and a forward look in which I will stick my neck out.

2008:

•n Twenty-four percent fewer homes sold than in 2007 from Spanish Fort to Point Clear.

•n Foreclosures, short sales and distress sales (essentially pre-foreclosures) captured buyers' attention.

•n On the Eastern Shore, the average sales price was down only 1% from the previous year and the median sales price was down just 6%. But it didn't feel that way, and a late-year statistic proved the point: In December, sellers took on average 8% off the list price to move their homes.

2009:

•n Interest rates have already dropped after the Fed unveiled a plan to buy $500 billion in mortgage securities and debt. For just a few hours one day in December, the rate hit 4.25%. The drop has triggered a new refinancing boom and hopefully will spill over into home sales.

•n Business Week magazine predicts the market has hit bottom, but prices will remain weak through the end of 2009. It cites the large inventory of houses as a negative and predicts potential sellers who have been sitting on the fence will put their homes on the market at the first sign of improvement, leading to more inventory. Locally, November was the worst month for sales (only 47 on the Eastern Shore), mirroring sales the month after the terror attacks of Sept. 11, 2001. I agree - and hope - we've hit bottom in terms of the number of sales.

•n There's a lot of pent-up demand. Marriage, divorce, new babies, retirement: Think about everyone who had a housing need that they didn't act on in 2008. This year may be their year.

•n Finally, a couple of opinions: Houses with great prices, and great houses, will sell, as always. If you're considering buying up or down, why wait? You may get less for your present house, but you will probably pay less for your new one, and the interest rate will be very attractive.

On to the stats:

Fourth quarter sales on the Eastern Shore registered a yearly low. Only 162 sold, compared with 265 in the third quarter. Average sales price was $260,838, with sellers taking on average 6% off the list price to sell. Average days on market were 162.

For the year, 833 homes sold, compared to 1,092 in 2007. Average sales price declined slightly from $292,091 to $287,736. The time it took to sell lengthened from 144 days in 2007 to 166 days in 2008. (Note: Both figures were skewed by houses being re-listed.)

Fairhope: 57 homes sold in the 4^th quarter, compared with 68 during the same time in 2007. Average price was $304,455, compared with $356,772 the previous year. Average time to sell rose from 157 days to 172 days.

For the year, 293 homes sold, compared with 400 sales in 2007. Average prices actually rose from $339,028 in 2007 to $353,765. Days on market rose from 162 to 197.

Daphne/Montrose: 69 homes sold in the 4^th quarter, compared with 58 in the 4^th quarter of 2007. Average sales price declined to $248,922, from $258,273 at the same time in 2007. Days on market rose from 153 to 166.

During all of 2008, 321 homes sold, compared with 394 in 2007. Average sales price was $271,599, down from $295,486 for all of 2007. Days on market stretched from 141 to 150.

Lake Forest: 15 homes sold, compared with 25 sales in the 4^th quarter of 2007. Average sales price dropped from $162,768 to $139,600. Days on market lengthened from 101 days to 124 days.

For the whole of the year, 99 homes sold, compared with 114 in 2007. Average prices dropped from $170,930 to $157,355 in 2008. Days on market rose from 110 to 159.

Spanish Fort: 21 homes sold in the 4^th quarter, compared with 33 during the last quarter of 2007. Average sales price dropped from $304,803 to $268,198 in 2008. The time it took to sell was virtually unchanged at about 130 days.

In 2008, 120 homes sold vs. 145 in 2007. Average sales price dropped from $281,232 to $277,245. The days on market stretched from 123 days to 140 days.

Inventory: As of Jan. 8, there were 1,082 homes on the market on the Eastern Shore.

■ Spanish Fort: 118

■ Daphne/Montrose: 328

■ Fairhope: 502

■ Lake Forest: 134.

If you have specific questions about your home's value, feel free to call or email.

Home sales improved in December in Spanish Fort, Daphne, Fairhope and Point Clear. Sixty-six homes sold in December, up from the abysmal statistic of only 47 home sales in November.

Pending sales dropped to 86 under contract as of Jan. 3, 2009. That's a decrease from the 98 under contract in November.

Inventory dropped from 1,157 homes for sale on the Eastern Shore as of early December to 1,079 homes for sale Jan. 3, 2009. But this is only because a tremendous number of listings expired with the old year. Expect them to be brought back on the market rapidly.

Interest rates dropped before Christmas to a low of 4.25%, but that held briefly. Still, rates have vacillated in the upper-4% to lower-5% area since.

The list to sale percentage has widened, meaning sellers are making deals to get houses sold. In November, the list-to-sale percentage was 95.21%; in December it dropped to 91.99%. In other words, sellers took on average 8% off the price of the house.

Here are the stats for the Eastern Shore in December:

Total houses for sale: 1,079

Spanish Fort: 118

Daphne: 329

Fairhope: 501

Lake Forest: 1131

Pending sales

Total: 86

Spanish Fort: 20

Daphne: 28

Fairhope: 29

Lake Forest: 9

Closed sales for December 2008

Total: 66

Average sales price: $274,054

Median sales price: $225,000

List to sale percentage: 91.99%

Spanish Fort: 7

Daphne: 24

Fairhope: 21

Lake Forest: 5

I was recently asked to provide information to a potential seller about what today’s buyer is willing to pay for homes in the Lake Forest area of Daphne, Alabama. I thought after my research that I would post this timely information as others may benefit from it, and it does apply to all areas and subdivisions in Baldwin County as well.

As you have probably noticed in your neighborhood, many nice homes are sitting on the market and are not selling. Why is that? Because buyers are not willing to pay top dollar in this market we are now in. You may be wondering what is selling, what buyers are looking for today, and what prices homes will bring.

Today, there are 139 homes for sale in the MLS in Lake Forest alone, with 9 of these pending. In addition, there are a few dozen for sale by owner homes in the subdivision. Many other homes have expired from the MLS without selling.

From these numbers, you can see that competition is very tough for sellers to attract the few buyers that are out there. What this translates to is that PRICE is what will sell a home in this market. The lowest priced homes for the size are selling, and buyers can afford to be choosey with so many to look at.

Pretty much the lowest price house, in the best shape is getting offers, while other very nice homes just sit on the market and aren’t getting any offers.

These statistics are sobering: In just over three months, only 16 homes out of over 180 homes up for sale have sold in Lake Forest in Daphne. If no other homes entered the market for sale, it would take THREE YEARS to reduce the inventory of available homes at this rate.

From this you can see that PRICE is indeed what it will take to sell a home today. So, if you are taking the approach of , "Let's price it high because we can always come down", you may just have three years to see if your idea will work to attract your buyer.

November 2008 home sale statistics for Spanish Fort, Daphne and Fairhope, Alabama

Home sales in November, 2008, dropped to 47 houses sold in Spanish Fort, Daphne, Fairhope and Point Clear. This follows the home sales peak of 135 sales in July, then a decline to 84 in August, 71 in September, and 53 in October.

Pending sales have risen slightly to 98 homes under contract, compared with only 87 under contract in October.

Inventory continues to decrease slightly to 1,157 homes for sale on the Eastern Shore as of Dec. 3.

As we all know, there are few bright spots in the economy these days. A big however is that mortgage interest rates have fallen, hovering around 5.25 percent. Let's hope that word spreads.

Here are the stats for the Eastern Shore in November:

Total houses for sale: 1,157

Spanish Fort: 127

Daphne: 339

Fairhope: 561

Lake Forest: 130

Pending sales

Total: 98

Spanish Fort: 20

Daphne: 42

Fairhope: 35

Lake Forest: 7

Closed sales for November 2008

Total: 47

Average sales price: $266,916

Median sales price: $210,00

List to sale percentage: 95.21%

Spanish Fort: 6

Daphne: 18

Fairhope: 15

Lake Forest: 8

Janet English, RE/Max By The Bay, 251 591-2411

The last time the Eastern Shore home sales market was this slow was October, 2001, the month after 9/11 attacks on the United States.

Home sales in October 2008 dropped again to only 53 homes sold in Spanish Fort, Daphne, Fairhope and Point Clear. This follows the home sales peak of 135 sales in July, then a decline to 84 in August and 71 in September.

Pending sales have also fallen to just 87 homes under contract to sell.

While disappointing, this is not surprising as that nation was spellbound by the erratic spiral downward of the stock market, coupled with the last month of presidential politicking.

Inventory continues to slide slightly from a peak around 1,300 this summer to 1,183 for sale on Nov. 6.

Today, interest rates are reacting to market news and are entrenched above 6% locally.

Here are the stats for the Eastern Shore in October:

Total houses for sale: 1,183

• Spanish Fort: 133
• Daphne: 350
• Fairhope: 577
• Lake Forest: 123

Pending sales

• Total: 87
• Spanish Fort: 20
• Daphne: 26
• Fairhope: 29
• Lake Forest: 12

Closed sales for October 2008

• Total: 53
• Average sales price: $240,565
• Median sales price: $217,000
• List to sale percentage: 94.96% (down from 96.92% in July)
• Spanish Fort: 8
• Daphne: 24
• Fairhope: 20
• Lake Forest: 1