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The following link takes you to an article that appeared in the Wall Street Journal about global warming. It is yet another explanation, but perhaps more plausible. http://ow.ly/12gus
The national real estate markets, save for commercial, are generally looking very positive. Financing is still an issue and selling one home to buy another is still not the easiest task to complete. Nevertheless, the overall trend seems strong and sustainable. The Mountain Empire market is still undergoing some adjustment as there have not been nearly enough purchases of homes to offset the replacement inventory. Last year there were about 70 homes in our area listed in the Tucson MLS. The other day the total was 102! The normal level should be in the 60's, or about 1 1/2 years. (Normal for urban markets is about 6 months which is about where Tucson is.) So, we have a great buyer's market with many choices in all price ranges. The way we are absorbing inventory (not!) leads me to think it will be a year to two years before we are close to normal levels. -- As for land, it is still hardly selling at this point. This fact is the result of too many homes on the market and too few buyers in general. Have a wonderful week!
In summary: If you are a seller, you must be patient and you must make sure your home or lot is priced right. If you are a buyer, you won't see a better time than now in our market.If you have spare cash to invest, think about land. If you are thinking of relocating here, aggressively price your current home so you can take advantage of the excellent inventory we now have.
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Well a couple of things happened: Active home listings climbed from 79 to 95 and total transactions (homes and land) were almost identical to 2008 and half of 2007. So our inventory is still way out of balance and actually moving in the wrong direction. Tucson, on the other hand, is now virtually in balance with about a six months supply of homes versus our three year supply! In order to see this market return to normal, we need the target markets from whence our buyers come to come back in balance like Tucson so they can sell their current homes. Even though interest rates are still historically low, lenders are not lending without reasonable down payments and very good credit. Cash is king! I believe our market is poised to begin a sustained rebound by mid-year, if not sooner. We have traditionally lagged Tucson by six months or so and that market "normalized" in the third quarter. I am excited to have so many opportunities for my buyer clients and I believe my sellers will be happy as well!
All of us in the real estate business were faced with new and challenging opportunities this year. It wasn't so much that we didn't know it was coming, but most of us are optimists and accepting the reality of fewer buyers in the market - and many fewer they were in the Mountain Empire - was really uncharted territory. We hunkered down and readjusted all our marketing and promotional efforts to bring in buyers to our overabundant inventory. It was a real buying opportunity!
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Last Friday I ran a list of homes for sale in my market and listed on the Tucson MLS. It is astounding! The number just keeps on rising. The tally was 97 and there are several other homes listed elsewhere. Our normal sales level is about 35 and our normal number of homes for sale is about 45, with 60 being off the charts in the past.
I believe everyone of the local REALTORS® is doing what they can to attract buyers, but it seems we just attract more and more sellers. I'm looking for any novel ideas out there to see if I can expand the universe of buyers into more markets. We have a graet climate - maybe the best! - and we have easy access to the Tucson airport and Tucson shopping as well as Sierra Vista and Nogales. This is not the desert. This is a grassland with mountain views in all quadrants at 5,000' MSL.
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Believe it or not, we had snow flurries about a week ago here in the high mountain grassland south of Tucson! We've also had a flurry of market activity, but will it develop into a full-flegged blizzard? I think not. This real estate recovery is going to take several years to get back to normal, but there will be bursts of activity in the interim. That's because there will be intermittent periods of bad news, the unemployment rate is going to take some time before it drops significantly and the lenders are still trying to figure out what to lend on. But go figure, the number of people signing on with the Tucson Association of Realtors® and MLS is increasing! The number of homes being listed for sale in my market is increasing! (Yesterday, it was 86 which is well over a two year supply.) I guess a lot of people don't feel the way I do. What do you think?
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The Arizona Cowboy Symposium, "a western heritage event that preserves the tradition, heritage and memories of the rural American West," is coming to the Santa Cruz County Fairgrounds November 13-15, 2009.
Supporters of The Arizona Cowboy Symposium include Southwest Strings right here in Tucson, purveyor of quality instruments & accessories at exceptional prices, and Larrivee Guitars, beautifully crafted guitars endorsed by Doc Stovall.
If (like me) you're fortunate enough to attend, here's what awaits us:
The Mission
The mission of the Arizona Cowboy Symposium Association is to perpetuate and preserve the heritage and values of the Old West and the American Cowboy, by producing the Arizona Cowboy Symposium, a western heritage event, and any other event that promotes and preserves the tradition, heritage, and memories of the rural American West.
These events will bring to the public the art, music, prose and poetry of the American Cowboy and his legacy.
Through our endeavors [we will] establish and support the Brielle Boisvert Scholarship Fund for students who wish to continue their studies in music, literature or rural agricultural endeavors including, but not limited to, veterinarian science and ranch management and operation.
I expect to be there! I'm hoping to see you.
___________________
I'm Mike in Tucson, and I blog here on the Active Rain Real Estate Network just about every day.
I'm an internet-based mortgage lender who happens to reside in Tucson, Arizona. Read my blog, and get to know me. The internet allows me to perform at the highest level of trust and productivity for clients anywhere in the world.
At the moment, we're completing purchase loans in less than 30 days for US Citizens in Iraq and Afghanistan.
Click the Active Rain link below to see my guarantee of service.
SUNSTREET MORTGAGE, LLC
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Call me if I can help you or someone you know
with a purchase or refi mortgage.
(520) 349-9090
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