2209 Cipriani in Belmont CA closed escrow yesterday

For the last 28 years, 2209 Cipriani has been lived in and enjoyed by the same family. They held their wedding reception there, shared their home and many holidays with family and friends, held cooking classes in the spacious kitchen, and always enjoyed the gorgeous view and serenity it brought.

Now they are excitedly embarking on the next chapter of their lives, and have found a house they already love--and it's on one level, right for them at this time.

On Labor Day, the sellers met with the buyers, and showed them around the house, explained how various things worked, shared the little 'secret' places which make a house unique. They like the buyers immensely, and the buyers' obvious enthrallment with the house which helps the sellers leave with fewer regrets.

Today, a new family owns 2209 Cipriani home and is ready to create their own special moments in this well-loved house. We all wish them well, and years of happiness in their special Belmont spot.

What's the market like in Belmont CA 94002?

With the Labor Day weekend behind us, kids back in school, vacations winding down I'm often asked about the real estate market, and whether or not houses are selling.

Today, we'll take a look in Belmont California where there are:

• 45 active listings, priced between $479,000 and $1,995,000
  
• 24 pending sales, priced between $449,950 and $1,860,000
• 10 homes that have closed escrow since July 15

One of those pending sales, at 2209 Cipriani, is ready to close escrow today, if the County can accommodate a special recording, otherwise we need to wait until Monday. Not only will an excited new buyer be moving into 2209 Cipriani, I'm showing 2 Belmont properties to buyers tomorrow.

I'm working with 3 other buyers, all looking on the mid-Peninsula or Silicon Valley, and getting a San Carlos house ready to come on the market on Monday.

In my opinion, the market is moving right along, without showing signs of stopping.

The media helps keep us informed about the world we live in. They tell us what is going on globally, what our government is up to and on a local level what the weather might be like (even though they bat just over 500 on that one), and they can even tell us the best route home when there’s traffic. We trust the media to give us accurate information and they have a duty to ensure that it is. But what about the stories they just choose not to report?

Let’s face it. Bad news sells and the media know it. They also know that sensational news sells and can afford to devote little space or time to reporting “feel good” stories.

In the real estate industry we are keenly aware of how the media focus on certain issues while choosing not to report others. And when they do report sensational news, often it is fraught with poor investigation—why ruin a good story with the facts?

Such is the case for our local housing news. We’ve been barraged with the doom and gloom stories for the past several years. One might think that when there’s some good news they’d be tempted to reverse their course of tenebrous stories. If the market continues on a course of recovery as it has been doing so far this year (ahem—six months have ggone by hello…), they just might be forced to report the bright side of San Mateo County’s rebounding housing market else be scooped by their competition. This is our report for June 2011, assessing the housing situation both nationally and locally—comparing the national housing news with our local market. We’re been waiting for the news to break about the staggering median price increase in San Mateo County but alas we are relying on our own reporting to bring you the facts: Interest rates are reaching 50 year lows again. Rates this week were unchanged. A 30 year fixed rate was hovering around 4.5%. Time to refinance if you haven’t already. September 30th is the drop dead date for the $729,750 conforming loan cut-off. As of October 1, 2011 it drops down to $625,500. Rumors that Congress may extend the temporary high cost area cap are doubtful. “The February report to Congress by the Departments of Treasury and Housing and Urban Development (HUD) stated “the Administration recommends that Congress allow the temporary increase in limits that was approved in 2008 to expire as scheduled on October 1, 2011 and revert to the limits established under HERA [Housing and Economic Recovery Act].” As such, we do not expect any further extensions.” Case-Shiller report for May showed that the U.S. National Home Price Index declined by 4.2% in the first quarter of 2011, after having fallen 3.6% in the fourth quarter of 2010. The National Index hit a new recession low with the first quarter’s data and posted an annual decline of 5.1% versus the first quarter of 2010. Nationally, home prices are back to their mid-2002 levels. The San Francisco MSA (metropolitan statistical area) which encompasses the counties of San Francisco, San Mateo and Marin fell 5.1% year over year, 2.6% for Q1 ’11 and .1% from March 2011-April 2011. Meanwhile San Mateo County fared much better. The median home price rose for the fourth straight month in a row—up 15% in Q1 2011 over Q4 2010, up 13.8% over last month, and up 10% over May of 2010. And here’s a staggering statistic which the media has managed to ignore—the median home price in San Mateo County is up 40% since January 2011. Stabilization appears at hand with more local job driving the demand for housing. San Mateo County home sales were up 14.8% over last month. Don’t compare May home sales to last year—the $8,000 tax incentive skewed the numbers for May and June last year—the drop dead date for the rebate last year—but on a side note, the same number of homes 418, sold last May even with the now expired incentive. Are buyers jumping in to catch the higher conforming loan limits and pushing up sales/prices? Perhaps. This October’s year over year sales should be a good indicator. Watch for July’s housing report—the first year-over-year comparison devoid of government incentives. *Data from the San Mateo County Multiple Listing Service. Interested in keeping up on Belmont home values visit monthly published stats on our web page: MorganHomes.com Drew and Christine Morgan are REALTORS® in Belmont, CA employed by RE/MAX Star-Carlmont. (650) 508-1441 The information contained in this article is educational and intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute real estate, tax or legal advice, nor does it substitute for advice specific to your situation. Always consult an appropriate professional familiar with your scenario.

Belmont Home Sales for May 2011

Belmont home prices slipped back a bit in the month of May 2011 while sales continued to be less than impressive.

Home sales in Belmont were down considerably from May of 2010 and for good reason—home sales last May were buoyed by the last minute deadline for the $8,000 tax credit which lifted sales across the nation. Our sales analysis for May of 2010 addressed the temporary nature of the uptick in homes sales for the month of May 2010.

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SALES

Last year in May there were 34 home sales in Belmont as compared to only 15 this year. That’s one less sale than last month and two less than in February. Looking at the big picture, over the last 13 years the average home sales in Belmont has been 25 for the month of May—of course many of the last 13 years were boon years as well.

MEDIAN PRICE

The median price for a home in Belmont for May 2011 was $949,000, an increase over April of 14% and an increase over last May when the median home price was $848,500. We could stop right there and change our headline but looking a little closer we see that the mix of homes which sold in these periods varied dramatically.

Last month, and in May of last year, the median size homes which sold were smaller than homes selling in May of 2011. Part of the reason for so many smaller homes selling last May was the $800,000 purchase cap to qualify for the $8,000 tax credit. This rebate lured many first-time buyers into the market but had an incidental effect of lowering the median home price with many smaller homes selling.

The median size home that sold in Belmont in May of 2010 was 1,845 square feet and in May of 2011 it had increased to 2,157. The increase of 312 square feet represents a 17% increase in the size of homes selling in the two periods while the increase in median price represents only an 11.8%. At the going rate of $478 per square foot in 2010 that could account for $149,136 of price differential—the actual differential in the two periods was only $100,500. This could loosely be translated into a real decline in median home price of $ 48,636 or 5.1% year over year.

While the median home price may have slipped back a bit the average time it took to sell a home dropped from 25 days in May of 2010 to 17 in May 2011.

PRICE REDUCTIONS

Four sellers in May of 2010 lowered their asking price by on average $64,750 in order to attract a buyer while this May only one seller lowered their asking price by $30,000. These fewer price reductions might be attributed to sellers (and agents) pricing their home more accurately to reflect the current market conditions.

PERCENT RECEIVED

May of 2011 found sellers netting more than last year during the same period. Seller’s received 101.3% of their asking price this year as compared to sellers netting only 99.8% last May.

A correlative effect of pricing one’s home right is that offers will usually come in closer to the asking price. This May five (33%) of the home sales were under the asking price for on average $22,000, four homes sold at the asking price and six (40%) sold for on average $40,000 more.

In May of 2010 15 homes (44%) sold for on average $26,000 less than what the seller was asking, three homes sold at the asking price and 16 (47%) sold for on average $22,000 more than asking.

The peninsula market appears to be picking up some steam, though the numbers have yet to reflect what we see occurring locally.

Homes which are priced right are often snapped up within days with multiple offers while sellers (and agents) who push the pricing envelope quickly lose market enthusiasm and are more often than not relegated to months of marketing, open houses, showings and multiple price reductions before finding a buyer.

We’ve also noted that many more people are contacting us for rentals than in the past several years. This increase in demand for rental housing has created a shortage in the supply and rental units are harder to come by while rental prices are skyrocketing. And when rents rise (and the number of units unavailable to meet the demand) people look at purchasing as an alternative. We suspect that the peninsula housing market is poised for a rebound sooner than the rest of the nation but don’t expect to hear about it in the news just yet.

Increased affordability in the housing sector with lower home values and historically low interest rates makes considering buying VS renting very attractive.

Investors of rental units are simply giddy at locking in historically low interest rates for 30 years and will reap handsome rewards when inflation returns.

The information contained in this article is educational and intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute real estate, tax or legal advice, nor does it substitute for advice specific to your situation. Always consult an appropriate professional familiar with your scenario.

San Mateo County Market Snapshot--Are We Treading Water?

Those of you who follow our market updates know we put our hometown, Belmont, under a market microscope every month to get a glimpse as to where the market appears to be headed.

Of course that really is living in a Petri dish when it comes to the real estate market as a whole.

Real estate is very local—what goes on in even one part of a city could be entirely different from another. That said eventually positive market trends trickle down and negative ones up.

As evidence of this phenomenon one can go back and look at our charts from 2007 when Palo Alto was still doing famously yet Daly City may as well have slid into the ocean (many homeowners probably wish it had).

Today we visit the numbers—year over year—for San Mateo County as a whole, hoping to see some trends that will give us an inkling as to where consumer sentiment is, as reflected in sales, median price, etc.

SALES

It’s easy to see that the ripples of consumer uncertainty could easily capsize the boat of recovery if the tides of low interest rates come in too fast.<!--[if gte vml 1]><v:shapetype id="_x0000_t75" coordsize="21600,21600" o:spt="75" o:preferrelative="t" path="m@4@5l@4@11@9@11@9@5xe" filled="f" stroked="f"> <v:stroke joinstyle="miter" /> <v:formulas> <v:f eqn="if lineDrawn pixelLineWidth 0" /> <v:f eqn="sum @0 1 0" /> <v:f eqn="sum 0 0 @1" /> <v:f eqn="prod @2 1 2" /> <v:f eqn="prod @3 21600 pixelWidth" /> <v:f eqn="prod @3 21600 pixelHeight" /> <v:f eqn="sum @0 0 1" /> <v:f eqn="prod @6 1 2" /> <v:f eqn="prod @7 21600 pixelWidth" /> <v:f eqn="sum @8 21600 0" /> <v:f eqn="prod @7 21600 pixelHeight" /> <v:f eqn="sum @10 21600 0" /> </v:formulas> <v:path o:extrusionok="f" gradientshapeok="t" o:connecttype="rect" /> <o:lock v:ext="edit" aspectratio="t" /> </v:shapetype><v:shape id="Picture_x0020_7" o:spid="_x0000_i1025" type="#_x0000_t75" alt="Cast-of-gilligans-island" href="http://beautifulmountainblog.typepad.com/.a/6a00e54ede755a8833014e5f299d1f970c-popup" style='width:240pt;height:150pt;visibility:visible;mso-wrap-style:square' o:button="t"> <v:imagedata src="file:///C:\Users\Drew\AppData\Local\Temp\msohtmlclip1\01\clip_image001.jpg" o:title="Cast-of-gilligans-island" /> </v:shape><![endif]--><!--[if !vml]--><!--[endif]-->

Sales are certainly better than the low of 2009 and remain steady as they did in our Belmont example. But as in the Belmont report the median price showed a decline in home values since last January. That’s not necessarily a bad thing, especially if you are a potential home buyer and it doesn’t mean values are still dropping, just that they did drop year over year.

Interest rates are going up, and have done so rapidly in the last few months—around ¾ of a point. That hurts the ability for people to qualify for a home and with less demand there’s a potential for prices to decrease further.

But as we cautioned ourselves, we are comparing 2010--a year of government sponsored tax rebates to 2011 without. Let's see if our minnow of a recovery can weather the storm without a life raft.

Thanks for checking back in with us.

*Data San Mateo County MLS.

Disclaimer: This information is for entertainment purposes only and includes no legal, accounting or real estate advice nor is this response in tended to be specific to your situation-consult a specialist for your specific situation.