Burlingame, CA

Looking Ahead - California Association of Realtors Releases 2010 Housing Market Forecast

RISMEDIA, November 9, 2009-"California's housing market continued its strong sales rebound this year, resulting from the continued pace of distressed properties coming to market," said California Association of Realtors (C.A.R.) President James Liptak. "This follows two years of double-digit sales declines in 2006 and 2007. Looking ahead, we expect sales to moderate to a more sustainable pace."

"After experiencing its sharpest decline in history, we expect the median price to rise modestly next year," Liptak added. "2010 will mark the beginning of the ‘new normal' for California's housing market. This ‘new normal' likely will feature a steady stream of sales driven by distressed properties in the low end of the market, coupled with moderate home-price appreciation."

The median home price in California will rise 3.3% to $280,000 in 2010 compared with a projected median of $271,000 this year, according to the forecast. Sales for 2010 are projected to decrease 2.3% to 527,500 units, compared with 540,000 units (projected) in 2009.

"Housing in California has become a tale of two markets," Liptak said. "The low end continues to attract first-time buyers and investors, with a resulting shortage in the number of homes for sale. Sellers at the high end, however, continue to be challenged by the ability of home buyers to secure financing as well as their concerns about where prices are headed. While demand from first-time buyers for low-end properties will continue throughout next year, sales could be impacted if discretionary sellers do not return to the market by the second half of 2010.

"2009 marked a unique opportunity for first-time home buyers," Liptak said. "Homes were more affordable than they have been in years, interest rates hovered near historic lows, and the federal tax credit helped more than 1 million people become homeowners nationwide. Now is the time for Congress to extend the federal tax credit and to expand it to all buyers, not just first-timers."

"With distressed properties accounting for nearly one-third of the sales in 2010, inventory will be relatively lean, under six months during the off-season months, and a roughly four-month supply during the peak season," said C.A.R. and Vice President Leslie Appleton-Young. "We expect the median price to decrease slightly through the remainder of 2009 and into next year, then rise before leveling off next summer. For the year as a whole, home prices are forecast to reach $280,000."

"Although it appears at this time that lenders are closely monitoring the flow of distressed properties onto the market, there could be an exertion of downward pressure on home prices should a heavier than expected wave of foreclosures come to market next year," she said.

"The wild cards for 2010 include foreclosures, loan resets, the labor market, and the California budget crisis, as well as the actions of the federal government," Appleton-Young said.

For more information, visit www.car.org.

1.4 Million Families Have Taken Advantage of First-Time Home Buyer Tax Credit, More Claims Expected

RISMEDIA, November 9, 2009-With the First-Time Home Buyer Tax Credit deadline now extended, the Internal Revenue Service recently reminded potential home buyers they must complete their first-time home purchases before April 30, 2010 to qualify for the special first-time home buyer credit.

The American Recovery and Reinvestment Act extended the tax credit, which has provided a tax benefit to more than 1.4 million taxpayers so far.

The credit of up to $8,000 is generally available to home buyers with qualifying income levels who have never owned a home or have not owned one in the past three years.

The IRS encouraged all eligible homebuyers to take advantage of the first-time home buyer credit but at the same time cautioned taxpayers to avoid schemes that help ineligible people file false claims for the credit. Currently, the agency is investigating a number of cases of potential fraud and is using computer screening tools to identify questionable claims for the credit.

Because the credit is only in effect for a limited time, those considering buying a home must act soon to qualify for the credit. Under the Recovery Act, an eligible home purchase must be completed before April 30, 2010 provided closing occurs prior to July 1, 2010.

The credit cannot be claimed until after the purchase is completed. For purchases made this year before Dec. 1, taxpayers have the option of claiming the credit on their 2008 returns or waiting until next year and claiming it on their 2009 returns.

For those considering a home purchase this fall, here are some other details about the first-time home buyer credit:

-The credit is 10% of the purchase price of the home, with a maximum available credit of $8,000 for either a single taxpayer or a married couple filing jointly. The limit is $4,000 for a married person filing a separate return. In most cases, the full credit will be available for homes costing $80,000 or more.

-The credit reduces the taxpayer's tax bill or increases his or her refund, dollar for dollar. Unlike most tax credits, the first-time home buyer credit is fully refundable. This means that the credit will be paid to eligible taxpayers, even if they owe no tax or the credit is more than the tax owed.

-Only the purchase of a main home located in the United States qualifies. Vacation homes and rental properties are not eligible.

-A home constructed by the taxpayer only qualifies for the credit if the taxpayer occupies it before Dec. 1, 2009.

-The credit is reduced or eliminated for higher-income taxpayers. The credit is phased out based on the taxpayer's modified adjusted gross income (MAGI). MAGI is adjusted gross income plus various amounts excluded from income-for example, certain foreign income. For a married couple filing a joint return, the phase-out range is $150,000 to $170,000. For other taxpayers, the range is $75,000 to $95,000. This means the full credit is available for married couples filing a joint return whose MAGI is $150,000 or less and for other taxpayers whose MAGI is $75,000 or less.

-The credit must be repaid if, within three years of purchase, the home ceases to be the taxpayer's main home. For example, a taxpayer who claims the credit based on a qualifying purchase on Sept. 1, 2009, must repay the full credit if he or she sells the home or converts it to business or rental use at any time before Sept. 1, 2012.

For more information, visit www.irs.gov.

Ask the Experts: More Than an Agent - Today's Real Estate Advisor

RISMEDIA, November 9, 2009-As a new and different economic environment continues to evolve around us, a unique opportunity exists for real estate agents to take a position of authority and provide guidance which will earn them respect, a strong reputation and long-term career success. Here, Glenn Melton, CEO of Realty Executives Int'l., Inc. discusses what you must be doing to position yourself now and for the future.

Trying to wrap your arms around the myriad of market conditions, government policies and economic trends is a tall order, but well worth the investment. A unique opportunity exists right now for real estate agents to take a position of authority and provide guidance to customers that will earn them respect, a strong reputation and long-term career success. So the question is: What are you doing to position yourself now and for the future?

Stay current, yet know your history. Consumer confidence hinges largely on information dispersed in the news. However, the media, by-and-large, communicates the story of the moment, focusing on micro trends. The biggest increase in sales in the past nine years, the Case-Shiller index increasing after nearly three years of steady decline, home prices finally going up in major cities like Boston, San Francisco and D.C.-what does this mean for the client? It appears that the market is trending toward stabilization, but making informed decisions on future investments requires an understanding of the events that led to the collapse of the housing and credit markets, as well as capitalizing on the resulting dislocations and opportunities for government-subsidized aid.

Know government programs and policies. Today, the government has taken the role of lender of last resort to stem an economic collapse. The Housing and Economic Recovery Act of 2008 has generated a significant increase in first-time home buyers due to its tax credit provision. The success of the newly enacted stimulus package and its focus on job retention is the key to curtailing rising foreclosure rates and stabilizing prices. The Administration has also supported bank stabilization with TARP by injecting capital into banks to free up lending. The Federal Reserve has so far been successful in keeping mortgage rates low so buyers can better absorb the inventory, as well as helping to mitigate the consequences of adjustable rate mortgages for those unable to refinance. All of this and more is going on during the challenging and painful events described in the headlines.

Familiarity with current laws, regulations and available programs is vital to effectively make prudent recommendations. With more understanding, a real estate advisor is better equipped to educate their client and offer superior guidance.

Know your customer. The economy is improving and the pace of decline in the residential real estate market has slowed. We are seeing the average days on the market coming down and the inventory absorption increasing, which are signs that cautious buyers are tiptoeing back into the market from the sidelines. So is now the time to buy and sell? The answer is, of course, it depends. This is a great time for consumers to leverage the pricing and opportunities available in this market, particularly for first-time home buyers, move-up buyers, investors, and second and vacation home buyers. However, understanding the economic realities allows agents to identify who should buy and who should not, who should modify their loan, rent, short sale, sit or hold and so on.

In this dynamic and uncertain environment, it is vital for buyers and sellers to receive insightful counsel to achieve their goals and objectives based on their individual circumstances. This cycle presents a unique window for agents and brokers to be that resource to clients and to define their leadership in what will be the new and different economic environment we are seeing evolve around us.

Big Rebound in Existing-Home Sales Shows First-Time Buyer Momentum

RISMEDIA, November 9, 2009-Existing-home sales bounced back strongly in September with first-time buyers driving much of the activity, marking five gains in the past six months, according to the National Association of Realtors®. Existing-home sales-including single-family, townhomes, condominiums and co-ops-jumped 9.4% to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 5.57 million units in September from a level of 5.10 million in August, and are 9.2% higher than the 5.10 million-unit pace in September 2008. Sales activity is at the highest level in over two years, since it hit 5.73 million in July 2007.

Lawrence Yun, NAR chief economist, said favorable conditions matched with a tax credit are boosting home sales. "Much of the momentum is from people responding to the first-time buyer tax credit, which is freeing many sellers to make a trade and buy another home," he said. "We are hopeful the tax credit will be extended and possibly expanded to more buyers, at least through the middle of next year, because the rising sales momentum needs to continue for a few additional quarters until we reach a point of a self-sustaining recovery."

Even with the improvement, Yun said the market is underperforming. "Despite spectacular gains in the stock market, principally from the financial sector recovery, most of the 75 million home owning families have more wealth tied to their homes. Home values could soon turn consistently positive and help the broad base of middle-class families, but we are not there yet," he said. "We're getting early indications of price stabilization, but we need a steady supply of qualified buyers to meaningfully bring inventories down and return us to a period of normal, steady price growth and to fully remove consumer fears, which would then revive the broader economy. Without a firm foundation for middle-class wealth recovery, the post-recession economic growth likely will be one of the weakest in U.S. history."

Early information from a large annual consumer study to be released November 13, the 2009 National Association of Realtors® Profile of Home Buyers and Sellers, shows that first-time home buyers accounted for more than 45% of home sales during the past year. A separate practitioner survey shows that distressed homes accounted for 29% of transactions in September.

"The current housing supply is the lowest we've seen in two and a half years," Yun said. "If we could continue to absorb inventory at this pace, home prices would return to normal, modest appreciation patterns next year.

According to Freddie Mac, the national average commitment rate for a 30-year, conventional, fixed-rate mortgage fell to 5.06% in September from 5.19% in August; the rate was 6.04% in September 2008. The national median existing-home price for all housing types was $174,900 in September, which is 8.5% lower than September 2008. Distressed properties continue to downwardly distort the median price because they generally sell at a discount relative to traditional homes in the same area.

Single-family home sales rose 9.4% to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 4.89 million in September from a pace of 4.47 million in August, and are 7.7% above the 4.54 million-unit level in September 2008. The median existing single-family home price was $174,900 in September, which is 8.1% below a year ago. Existing condominium and co-op sales jumped 9.7% to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 680,000 units in September from 620,000 in August, and are 9.7% above the 561,000-unit pace a year ago. The median existing condo price was $175,100 in September, down 11.7% from September 2008.

To reduce or minimize the risk of becoming a victim of identity theft or fraud, there are some basic steps you can take. For starters, just remember the word "SCAM": Be Stingy about giving out your personal information to others unless you have a reason to trust them, regardless of where you are:

At Home

1. Start by adopting a "need to know" approach to your personal data. Your credit card company may need to know your mother's maiden name, so that it can verify your identity when you call to inquire about your account. A person who calls you and says he's from your bank, however, doesn't need to know that information if it's already on file with your bank; the only purpose of such a call is to acquire that information for that person's personal benefit. Also, the more information that you have printed on your personal bank checks - such as your Social Security number or home telephone number - the more personal data you are routinely handing out to people who may not need that information.
2. If someone you don't know calls you on the telephone and offers you the chance to receive a "major" credit card, a prize, or other valuable item, but asks you for personal data - such as your Social Security number, credit card number or expiration date, or mother's maiden name - ask them to send you a written application form.
3. If they refuse to send the application form, tell them you're not interested and hang up.
4. If they will send it, review the application carefully when you receive it and make sure it's going to a company or financial institution that's well-known and reputable. The Better Business Bureau can give you information about businesses that have been the subject of complaints.

On Travel

1. If you're traveling, have your mail held at your local post office, or ask someone you know well and trust - another family member, a friend, or a neighbor - to collect and hold your mail while you're away.
2. If you have to telephone someone while you're traveling, and need to pass on personal financial information to the person you're calling, don't do it at an open telephone booth where passersby can listen in on what you're saying; use a telephone booth where you can close the door, or wait until you're at a less public location to call.

Check your financial information regularly, and look for what should be there and what shouldn't:

What Should Be There?

1. If you have bank or credit card accounts, you should be receiving monthly statements that list transactions for the most recent month or reporting period.
2. If you're not receiving monthly statements for the accounts you know you have, call the financial institution or credit card company immediately and ask about it.
3. If you're told that your statements are being mailed to another address that you haven't authorized, tell the financial institution or credit card representative immediately that you did not authorize the change of address and that someone may be improperly using your accounts. In that situation, you should also ask for copies of all statements and debit or charge transactions that have occurred since the last statement you received. Obtaining those copies will help you to work with the financial institution or credit card company in determining whether some or all of those debit or charge transactions were fraudulent.

What Shouldn't Be There.

1. If someone has gotten your financial data and made unauthorized debits or charges against your financial accounts, checking your monthly statements carefully may be the quickest way for you to find out. Too many of us give those statements, or the enclosed checks or credit transactions, only a quick glance, and don't review them closely to make sure there are no unauthorized withdrawals or charges.
2. If someone has managed to get access to your mail or other personal data, and opened any credit cards in your name or taken any funds from your bank account, contact your financial institution or credit card company immediately to report those transactions and to request further action.

Ask periodically for a copy of your credit report.

Your credit report should list all bank and financial accounts under your name, and will provide other indications of whether someone has wrongfully opened or used any accounts in your name.

Maintain careful records of your banking and financial accounts.

Even though financial institutions are required to maintain copies of your checks, debit transactions, and similar transactions for five years, you should retain your monthly statements and checks for at least one year, if not more. If you need to dispute a particular check or transaction - especially if they purport to bear your signatures -your original records will be more immediately accessible and useful to the institutions that you have contacted.

Even if you take all of these steps, however, it's still possible that you can become a victim of identity theft. Records containing your personal data - credit-card receipts or car-rental agreements, for example - may be found by or shared with someone who decides to use your data for fraudulent purposes.