About Santa Cruz County, CA

Today represents the opportunity of a lifetime for real estate investment. One only needs to study the wealthiest people in the world to know how to capitalize on timing. Warren Buffet recently pointed out that when everyone else is selling is the time to buy.

In Santa Cruz County home prices and interest rates are at historic lows. Never has the affordability index been greater in our adult lifetime. Affordability translates to the ability to purchase a home and this is represented by the percentage of a median family's income consumed by the median mortgage. Nationally in 1981 a mortgage represented 36% of a family's income, today the national percentage is 15% of the family's income. This affordability combined with low prices and low interest rates is known as a "Buyer's Market" and a buyer's market is defined as the time to buy. It is not the time to kick the tires or to wait hoping the market will go lower. The waiting is over.

Now is the time to capitalize on the low prices and low interest rates which make Santa Cruz homes more affordable than ever. In August 2010 inventory of single family homes for sale in Santa Cruz County was 1102, in August of 2011 it was 1014 which represents an 8% decline. In August of 2010 we sold 150 homes countywide and in August 2011 sales of single family residences increased to 164 which represented a 9% increase in sales. So our inventory has decreased and our sales have increased. The average price of a Santa Cruz County home decreased from $578,159. to $557,810. and the median price decreased from $522,500. To $490,000 when comparing to August 2011 to August 2010.

For years I have advised my home buying clients to wait to buy unless they planned to hold their home for 10+ years. I also previously advised my home selling clients to sell quickly if they had to sell since the market showed all indications of decreasing in value for years. Agents used to say that we need a crystal ball to know what the market will do in the future but the years from 2005 until now have had such obvious economic indicators that only a person living under a rock would not have seen the signs leading to the continual decline we have experienced as a result of stalled sales and ballooned inventory through these years of lending issues, short sales, REOs, phantom inventory, high unemployment and numerous other blows to the real estate market and to the economy.

While the national economy has a ways to go, the Silicon Valley economy is on the upswing and historically our market follows the Silicon Valley market due to the nature of our bedroom community. In other good news we now have 6.18 months of inventory of single family homes currently on the market and 6 months represents a balanced market.

Fun stuff to do in Boulder Creek

February 11^th: This weekend, the town merchants are “putting out.” … Putting their merchandise out on the streets that is, in the manner of a street fair. There will be a raffle, crafts demonstrations, discounts, and Valentines’ gift ideas. These street fairs occur on the 2^nd Saturday of every month…

February 14^th - Valentines Day - this coming Tuesday

Take your loved one for a Valentines’ Dinner – 4pm to 10pm at Boulder Creek’s legendary Scopazzi’s Restaurant 338-6441

and consider coming back to help celebrate their 100th year in business at the end of April...details soon :) http://www.scopazzisrestaurant.com/

February 18^th – Windy Hill – Bluegrass at Joe’s Bar

These guys appear at venues like Freight and Salvage in Berkeley, Amnesia in San Francisco... 338-3417

http://www.facebook.com/pages/Joes-Bar/132408613439331?ref=ts&sk=wall

February 19th - SLV Water District History - 3pm at the Senior Center in Ben Lomond Admission/Donation $5 per family - details 338-8382 - sponsored by Terry Vierra of Century 21 Showcase REALTORS.

February 25^th – Flea Market at Junction park – hosted by Boulder Creek Parks and Recreation District 338-4144

ALL MONTH:

SHOP LOCAL BC Hardware- say Hi to Doug and Ann Marie - featuring a February sale on Stanley Shop Vac ($17.95) - 338-3866

Great coffee, baked goods and bagels at Jenna Sues /Dessert First 338-7008http://www.facebook.com/pages/Jenna-Sues-Cafe/110143085713000?sk=info

Winter clearance sale at Plumline Vintage – boots, sweaters and more 338-2701http://www.facebook.com/PLUMLINEVINTAGE?sk=info

BC Liquors – where the prices are good, the wine selection is awesome, and the clerks provide off beat humor 338-6448

Boulder Creek Brewery – Live Bluegrass Thursdays and Sunday nights - http://www.facebook.com/bouldercreekbrewery

Crab Feed - Boulder Creek Volunteer Fire Department Annual Fundraiser

March 3^rd at 6pm at the BC Firehouse on HWY 9

Hurry to make your reservation: there will only be 200 tickets sold!

$45 tickets sold only in advance – call extension 338-7222 extension 29

Call/text/e-mail me to post your upcoming events anywhere in the Santa Cruz Mountains

Graph is between Aug 2011 and Jan 2012
Property Class includes- 'Single Family Residential', 'Townhouse/Condo’
Area is '44 Capitola'
Results calculated from approximately 130 Listings

Capitola Real Estate Market Update - For the last 6 months, the Capitola Real Estate market held under 7 months of unsold inventory indicating a strong seller’s market. In January 2012 the inventory increased to 57 single family homes with only 2 sold units. This sky-rocketed the unsold inventory to 28.5 months from December’s 6.2 months, indicating a transition to a strong buyer’s market.

So what does months of unsold inventory mean and why is it important to follow? To understand Capitola’s unsold inventory, we take the total number of listed homes available and divide by the number of homes sold per month in the area. This is the best determinant of a real estate market’s health. A stable market maintains a 7-9 month supply of available homes. Under 7 months indicates a seller’s market while over 9 months indicates a buyer’s market.

We won’t know until next month if this is the sign of an unhealthy market or a numerical anomaly caused by the end of the calendar year. A 28.5 month’s supply of real estate inventory for Capitola could drop prices further and open up more opportunity for home buyers in Capitola, CA.

Month Months of Unsold Inventory
Aug 2011 4.5
Sep 2011 6.0
Oct 2011 4.1
Nov 2011 6.5
Dec 2011 6.2
Jan 2012 28.5

Ben Lomond Home Sales, Prices and 2011 Market Update

2011 –year in review

Home sales rose by 50% in Ben Lomond during 2011 - 62 homes sold! The average home sales price was $378,905, taking an average of 2 months on the market prior to going into escrow. The discount between the list price and eventual sale price was 3.7% overall. The average home price fell about 10% compared to 2010.

The highest priced home sold for $821,000 – this was a 4 bedroom, 3 bath home on 25 acres – a traditional sale between people.

The lowest priced home sold for $77,000 – it was a shack deemed uninhabitable by the county, on just under an acre along the San Lorenzo River, sold by JP Morgan Chase.

Here is an example of a short sale I helped my clients sell, after the family breadwinner got a better job on the east coast. Situated on 7 hilltop acres, the buyer was lucky to purchase it for just $563,000.

2010 –year in review

42 homes sold in Ben Lomond during 2010. The average home sales price was $421,672, taking an average of 2 1/2 months on the market prior to going into escrow. The discount between the list price and eventual sale price was just over 2 % overall.

In 2010, the highest priced home sold for $875,000: described as “a funky old farmhouse” on 27 acres.

The lowest priced home sold for $60,000 – this was a red-tagged property high in the mountains along Love Creek without power.

Why did prices fall in 2011? In Ben Lomond the number of higher end homes - those selling for more than $500,000 – was fairly stable between 2010 (10) to 12 in 2011. On the other hand, in the affordable and fixer-upper home segment, 21 homes sold in 2011 for less than $300,000, more than 3 times the number (just 6) that sold in that price range in 2010.

50% of all sales (31 houses) were distressed sales in 2011 - homes that were either foreclosures or short sales, quite similar to 2010, when 54% (22) were distressed residential transactions.. All but 5 of the homes which sold in the affordable segment in 2011 were distressed sales. It’s my feeling that Ben Lomond prices fell due to the mix of homes that actually sold as much as anything else. Most buyer activity lately has come from first time buyers, investors, and those seeking vacation homes

To find out what your Ben Lomond home is worth now, click here

Felton Home Sales, Prices and 2011 Market Update

2011 –year in review

63 homes sold in Felton during 2011. The average home price fell about 23% when compared to 2010. The average home sales price was $328,643, taking an average of just over 3 months (101 days) on the market prior to going into escrow. The discount between the list price and eventual sale price was 4% overall.

The highest priced home sold for $736,861 – this was a bank owned 5 bedroom, 3 bath home on 22+ acres.

The lowest priced home sold for $44,000 – it was a tiny, bank owned, burned down home on Highway 9.

Why did prices fall so dramatically? In my opinion, the main reason is that the number of higher end homes - those selling for more than $500,000 - shrank from 14 in 2010 to only 5 in 2011. On the other hand, in the affordable and fixer-upper home segment, 28 homes sold in 2011 for less than $300,000, nearly 3 times the number (just 10) that sold in that price range in 2010.

63% of all sales (40 houses) were distressed sales in 2011 - homes that were either foreclosures or short sales. All but 2 of the affordable segment were distressed sales – just two were normal, owner occupied sales. This is in contrast to 2010, when 47% (28) were distressed residential transactions.

In conclusion, prices fell due to the mix of homes that actually sold as much as anything else. Most buyer activity is either first time buyers or investors.

What I am seeing is that many people who might be trying to move up into a bigger home, or downsize into a smaller home, are waiting for the market to recover before they put their home on the market. A few people are able to rent out their homes, and taking advantage of low interest rates to buy a second home that suits them better.

If you would like to find out what your home is worth now, click here

2010 –year in review

In 2010, 60 homes sold in Felton. The average home sales price was $427,195, taking an average of 80 days on the market prior to going into escrow. The eventual sales price was an average discount of 2.2% off the list price.

The highest priced home sold for $795,000 – a lovely owner occupied 4 bedroom, 3 ½ bath home on about 3 ½ acres.

The lowest priced home sold for $97,000 – a small 1 bedroom, bank owned cabin.

Source: MLSListings.com, Single Family Dwellings