About Koloa's Poipu

The updated Kauai real estate inventory chart is presented below. The 3+ year climb may have resumed as shown in the chart. The dip in early November was hopeful but as I always say "one month does not a trend make". Nevertheless, we may be starting to flatten out and another few months will give a better picture on that. Unfortunately, the Koloa/Poipu area on Kauai's south shore continues to climb without a break. This is likely because of the high concentration of condos in Poipu which normally attract mainland buyers. Those buyers have been conspicuously absent, both as measure in real estate sales and in tourism. Todays lower prices and ultra-low interest rates should start to make some of these properties irresistable.

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The December absorption rate chart for the island of Kauai is posted herein. Clearly the supply of homes and condos continues to far exceed a healthy rate of sales for most island zones. The one exception is the central zone of Lihue which is comparatively HOT with less than a 1 year supply of homes. This exception has continued throughout the year and I would classify it as more than an anomoly at this point. Clearly the Lihue area has a relatively high demand for homes compared to what's available. I still don't have anything other than guesses about the reason. Perhaps there is a shift to living "close-in" to the center of commerce because of high gas prices, or access to island amenities, or maybe both.

How quickly our reference point changes however because we would have thought a year's supply was awful in the feverish seller's market of yore. I first started tracking this data in February 2007 which will soon be 2 years ago. I have contrasted current and "back then" data with the sid-by-side charts below. When I first started, the different color bands were obvious without a magnifying glass. Today, almost everything is well within the red zone. Perhaps Business Week needs to rewrite their 2006 article with now bands of what is acceptable. If not that, then at least what is the norm.

Current absorption rate on left and ~2 years ago on right

I've had a request to show how these color-band charts are prepared. If there is additional interest, I will do my best to map out some time to describe the steps.

Aloha!

Search Kauai/Big Island | Search Maui | Email | About Me | Visit Website | Phone/Text (808) 651-4550

Engineering Hawaii Dreams Today--Helping Buyers Find Dream Homes & Sellers Find Buyers

Visit www.KauaiRocks.com for Hawaii real estate information

The National Association of Realtors projects that as the US economy continues to back-pedal, Real Estate prices nationally will soon contract to 2004 levels. Based on current figures as shown on the graph below, Poipu Beach condo prices have already returned to those levels. This suggests that Poipu Condominium prices may contract even further (2003 levels) since they are essentially second home investment properties.

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