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Kauai Absorption Rate--Today and 2 years ago

12-18-08
Richard T Dolbeare (RA), ABR, CRS, RSPS, BS/MS - Engineering Hawaii Dreams Today
Richard T Dolbeare (RA), ABR, CRS, RSPS, BS/MS - Engineering Hawaii Dreams Today: Real Estate Agent in Koloa, HI
  • view my blog
  • Office: (808) 651-4550
  • Mobile: (808) 651-4550

The December absorption rate chart for the island of Kauai is posted herein. Clearly the supply of homes and condos continues to far exceed a healthy rate of sales for most island zones. The one exception is the central zone of Lihue which is comparatively HOT with less than a 1 year supply of homes. This exception has continued throughout the year and I would classify it as more than an anomoly at this point. Clearly the Lihue area has a relatively high demand for homes compared to what's available. I still don't have anything other than guesses about the reason. Perhaps there is a shift to living "close-in" to the center of commerce because of high gas prices, or access to island amenities, or maybe both.

Chart image

How quickly our reference point changes however because we would have thought a year's supply was awful in the feverish seller's market of yore. I first started tracking this data in February 2007 which will soon be 2 years ago. I have contrasted current and "back then" data with the sid-by-side charts below. When I first started, the different color bands were obvious without a magnifying glass. Today, almost everything is well within the red zone. Perhaps Business Week needs to rewrite their 2006 article with now bands of what is acceptable. If not that, then at least what is the norm.

Current absorption rate on left and ~2 years ago on right

Chart imageChart image

I've had a request to show how these color-band charts are prepared. If there is additional interest, I will do my best to map out some time to describe the steps.

Aloha!

Search Kauai/Big Island | Search Maui | Email | About Me | Visit Website | Phone/Text (808) 651-4550 Richard Dolbeare (RA)

Engineering Hawaii Dreams Today--Helping Buyers Find Dream Homes & Sellers Find Buyers

Visit www.KauaiRocks.com for Hawaii real estate information

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Poipu Beach Kauai Condominium Mean Sales Prices

11-29-08
James G. Pycha (R), Kauai Estate Broker
James G. Pycha (R), Kauai Estate Broker: Real Estate Brokerage in Princeville, HI
  • view my blog
  • Office: (808) 826-9675
  • Mobile: (808) 639-2622
  • Secondary: (808) 826-7779

The National Association of Realtors projects that as the US economy continues to back-pedal, Real Estate prices nationally will soon contract to 2004 levels. Based on current figures as shown on the graph below, Poipu Beach condo prices have already returned to those levels. This suggests that Poipu Condominium prices may contract even further (2003 levels) since they are essentially second home investment properties.

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Recent Poipu Land Sales

11-06-08
James G. Pycha (R), Kauai Estate Broker
James G. Pycha (R), Kauai Estate Broker: Real Estate Brokerage in Princeville, HI
  • view my blog
  • Office: (808) 826-9675
  • Mobile: (808) 639-2622
  • Secondary: (808) 826-7779
poipu
Land Area Location Price Price per sq. ft. Taxkey Sold Date
12,333 Kukuiula Ph I Lot #:9 $830,475 $67.00 4-2-6-16-9 6/13/2008
9,105 Kukuiula Ph I Lot #:7 $1,125,000 $124.00 4-2-6-16-7 9/17/2008
13,530 Kukuiula Ph I Lot #:51 $1,315,000 $97.00 4-2-6-16-51 7/25/2008
21,474 Kukuiula Ph Iib Lot #:23 $1,680,000 $78.00 4-2-6-18-23 6/13/2008
26,944 Kukuiula Ph Iib Lot #:24 $1,736,000 $64.00 4-2-6-18-24 6/13/2008
20,751 Kukuiula Ph Iib Lot #:22 $1,760,000 $85.00 4-2-6-18-22 6/13/2008
13,482 Poipu Beach Estate Lot #:163 $625,000 $42.00 4-2-8-31-163 9/23/2008
15,744 Poipu Beach Estate Lot #:155 $657,000 $42.00 4-2-8-31-155 9/19/2008
16,208 Poipu Beach Estate Lot #:158 $675,000 $42.00 4-2-8-31-158 9/16/2008
15,824 Poipu Beach Estate Lot #:154 $685,000 $43.00 4-2-8-31-154 9/5/2008
16,540 <<< Averages >>> $1,108,848 $68.40
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Poipu Area Home Sales (From June 5, 2008)

11-06-08
James G. Pycha (R), Kauai Estate Broker
James G. Pycha (R), Kauai Estate Broker: Real Estate Brokerage in Princeville, HI
  • view my blog
  • Office: (808) 826-9675
  • Mobile: (808) 639-2622
  • Secondary: (808) 826-7779
Subdivision Location Price Bed rooms Bath rooms Living Area Sold Price Sold Date Price per square foot
Koloa Estates Subdivision 2963 Pua Alani Pl $1,695,000 6 4.5 4,019 $1,350,000 6/26/2008 $336.00
Koloa 4432 Lawai Beach Rd $5,900,000 3 2 2,341 $5,650,000 7/7/2008 $2,414.00
Weliweli Houselots 2418 Kipuka St $799,000 3 2 980 $750,000 6/24/2008 $765.00
Lanai Villas @ Poipu Kai 1691 Kelaukia St $1,450,000 4 3 2,135 $1,338,000 7/16/2008 $627.00
WAINANI AT POIPU Wainani #:41(27) $1,795,000 3 3.5 2,026 $1,650,000 7/3/2008 $814.00
Bayview @ Poipu Kai 2228 Iukika Pl $1,900,000 5 4 2,950 $1,750,000 6/16/2008 $593.00
Kiahuna Golf Village 5347 Puuone Pl $1,995,000 3 3 3,124 $1,862,500 6/5/2008 $596.00
Kiahuna Golf Village 2868 Milo Hae Loop $1,995,000 4 4 3,261 $1,780,000 6/10/2008 $546.00
Kiahuna Golf Village 5314 Opua Pl $2,100,000 3 3 2,161 $1,700,000 9/5/2008 $787.00
$2,181,000 2,555 $1,981,167 $830.89
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Blog_tag

Kauai Home Sales & Past Recessions

11-02-08
James G. Pycha (R), Kauai Estate Broker
James G. Pycha (R), Kauai Estate Broker: Real Estate Brokerage in Princeville, HI
  • view my blog
  • Office: (808) 826-9675
  • Mobile: (808) 639-2622
  • Secondary: (808) 826-7779

Kauai Home Sales & Past Recessions

Start of Recession

Worst two quarters

Change peak-to-trough

Change in unemployment rate*

Quarters in recession

Quarters of slow growth

1948

-3.5

-1.7

3.3

4

0

1953

-4.3

-2.6

3.4

4

5

1957

-7.4

-3.2

3.4

3

8

1960

-2.3

-0.5

1.9

3

4

1969

-1.3

-0.2

2.6

4

10

1973

-3.1

-3.1

4.1

5

8

1980

-4.3

-2.2

2

2

7

1981

-5.6

-2.6

3.3

5

7

1990

-2.5

-1.3

2.4

2

11

2001

-0.1

0.3

2.2

3

11

2008 (projected)

-3

-1.6

3.1

3

12

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