Idaho

I was fortunate enough to have dinner last night with Dr. Jed Smith on his trip to Boise to talk to the Ada County Association of Realtors Annual meeting. With the current upheval in the financial markets, we couldn't have chosen a better time to get his insight. A few key points he made was that he felt we were really close to the turn around point of the housing market because:

• Inventory is shrinking,
• we aren't adding in new inventory very fast (new construction slowdown),
• interest rates projected to stay low;
• we have corrected many of the things that lead up to this;
• He said home sales nationwide are well below their unrealistic peak but stabilizing now.
  

A lot of the problem before was the excess money in the market which allowed for the sub-prime market to go from $295 million in 2001 to $882 million (nearly tripled) in 2004, to $1.138 Trillion in 2005. It started back down in 2006 to $1.051 Trillion. By 2007 it had already dropped to $466 million. He said that even though the sub-prime market only accounted for 9% of the lending portfolio, it accounted for 53% of the foreclosures! In conclusion, he said he felt we were pretty close to the bottom based on the "known" factors, but this is a unique time that he said is best compared to the 1907 market. We still don't know the "unknown" factors that still may be lurking around the corner (inflation?, hedge fund impacts, consumer confidence, international markets, etc.) When things like this happen, he said, we tend to "overshoot" the target so there are profits waiting for those that time the bottom correctly.

Jim Paulson, CRS, GRI, EPRO - Owner/Broker - Progressive Realty Corporation
http://www.Progressive-Realty.info

Anyone who has been out and about has certainly noticed that the pain at the pump is easing up a bit. Here is a photo documentary by my sister Kerri of the price falling over three days earlier this week.

Just this past Sunday, October 5, the price for a gallon of regular was at $3.14. The next day was down to $3.09. Tuesday, it dipped below $3.00 to $2.99 for the first time in I cant remember how long! It is still stuck at that $2.99 mark at just about every station around Coeur d'Alene.

These falling prices are good news for all of us who have been squeezed by hyper-inflated gas prices. Yesterday, it cost me $17 dollars less than it did in August to fill my gas tank. Multiply that by AT LEAST four tanks a month and it adds up to $68 a month in expendable income that will stay in our local North Idaho economy. I can't help but think that lowering gas prices to reasonable levels will be as much of a boon to stabilizing our struggling economy as anything else that Congress schemes up.

I never would have thought that gas at $2.99 would be cause to celebrate! Let's hope that whoever it is that is manipulating the gas prices will keep cranking them down.

Janna Rankin Scharf, GRI, CSP, CLHMS
Associate Broker
Coldwell Banker Schneidmiller Realty
(208)651-9700
NorthIdahoJanna@gmail.com
www.JannaScharf.com

Please make these freeloaders go away.

It was just anounced today that our largest private employer in the state, Micron, will be eliminating 15% of it's global workforce of which, 1,500 will come from Boise. Have any of you seen any stistics that claim the ecomomic impact of a job lost?

I know our economic community development gurus claim roughly 3.2 new jobs for each "new" job; but apparently the research is not readily availble on jobs "lost".

One economist told me tonight that typically you figure about 2x if a job was "exported".

Does trickle down = tricle up in economic terms?

That's a great statement for me at the end of the day-- to honestly be able to say nothing else I could have done would have made this day any better.

Did I sell a house? No. Win the lottery? Not a chance! I didn't buy a ticket (and rarely do. Although it's fun to buy them and give them to clients :-)!) With either of these activities, there are too many factors beyond my control to say there's something I could have done.

So what did I do that made it such a great day?

First, I wrote out a plan the night before. This is something I've been doing for decades (former school teacher, ya know, so it started in the form of 'lesson plans' and has evolved....) But then I did something I don't always manage to do, which is...

completed every item on the list. My "to do" lists are usually long. Lots of items carry over into the next day. Not today. I started the day with some really positive statements said out loud to myself in the mirror. Okay, confession time: I used to think such behaviors were quirky and corny, but I can't argue with success. The best sales professionals in real estate make positive statements to themselves daily.

This positive start to the day led to a great meeting involving a new prospect, myself, and a mutual acquaintance who wants to grow business for all of us! (What great people to spend time with.) Besides bringing enthusiasm, faith, and courage to the meeting, I also applied some of the skills I've been learning about in order to help people. Most notably, asking great questions (see Bob Burg's book, Endless Referrals for great questions) and then practicing the art of listening. Asking the questions and then hearing the answers was really enjoyable. I left the meeting with an even bigger dosage of enthusiasm than I'd brought to it. With batteries fully charged (the coffee helped too!), I returned to my home office and completed those "top priority" tasks-- the ones that will really grow my business.

I called people in my data base... and lined up meeting with three of them for coffee next week.

I wrote personal notes. (The goal was to write three, but I wrote six.)

I popped by the businesses of two former clients and gave them little gifts. (That makes five pop-bys so far this week.)

I also pushed through to complete a huge project I've been working on for months. Finishing that is exhilarating!

Simple stuff, really. Not at all earth shattering, but that's what's great about it. It can easily be duplicated tomorrow. No reason tomorrow can't be great and I can make the same statement about that day as well.