INDIANAPOLIS - Month after month, Central Indiana housing inventory steadily declined during 2008, with November showing a 13 percent drop, or 2,513 fewer homes on the market, compared to the same time last year, according to active listings statistics compiled December 8 by F.C. Tucker Company. Of the nine counties Tucker tracks, Hendricks County showed the largest decrease in inventory at -19.6 percent.
"As the number of homes available reaches a six-month supply in 2009, we will finally see a supply/demand correction of the local housing market," said H. James Litten, president of F.C. Tucker Company's Residential Real Estate Services Division. "Our current inventory is less than eight months, so the opportunity for central Indiana real estate to rebound gets closer and closer. Today, it remains a buyers' market, and with low interest rates, more and more buyers are seriously looking."
Tucker estimates that nearly 25,000 homes will be pended in the nine-county region by year-end. The average year-to-date sales price remained off 5 percent for the year; in November, the average price for a home was $145,014. Tucker estimates that the 5 percent decrease in the average sales price will track through December. Litten said, "Central Indiana's housing affordability index, according to the National Association of Home Builders, is one of the best in the nation, and our affordability bodes well for an earlier recovery than some areas of the country."
Of the nine counties, Hendricks County showed the least decline in homes pended in November, with 6.9 percent fewer homes pended compared to the same time last year. Hancock County showed the highest decline in November with 16.4 percent fewer homes pended compared to the same time last year. For this year, home sales are down 11 percent.
"As we reflect on 2008 and the challenges facing our nation, and the Central Indiana real estate market in particular, we can take comfort knowing that economic downturns don't last forever," added Litten. "I believe efforts to reform the nation's lending practices will strengthen consumer confidence in 2009. Moreover, Central Indiana continues to have a strong economic base of business activity and one of the steadiest real estate markets in the nation. I am optimistic that we'll see improvement in 2009."
In the coming year, Litten predicts the following changes in the local real estate market:
•¡ An increase in real estate sales in 2009 over 2008 numbers. According to panelists from Indiana University's annual business outlook, Indianapolis should see more positive numbers for Indianapolis in the fourth quarter. Our market could rebound more quickly than other U.S. cities, primarily due to our nationally recognized affordability.
•¡ Housing prices stabilizing at 2008 levels. Even in a year of significant foreclosures from the sub-prime debacle, the average home price in Central Indiana only dipped five percent, compared to some areas in the country such as California, Florida and Nevada that are down more than 20 percent. Because of the current slowdown, there is a tremendous amount of pent-up demand for buyers waiting on the sidelines. Sales are moving for people who need a home, and as prices level off, we will see an equilibrating of supply and demand in the housing market.
•¡ Residential real estate inventory declining further until Central Indiana reaches a six-month supply in late 2009. Despite being a buyer's market, sellers are encouraged because inventory is decreasing - which means less competition.
•¡ Interest rates to remain low in 2009. The Federal Reserve cut interest rates nine times in 2008, leaving rates at record lows heading into 2009. Also, contrary to popular belief, banks are still lending money, and there will continue to be unprecedented buying opportunities in Central Indiana through much of 2009.
•¡ A new administration in Washington will bring positive change. In January, Americans will welcome a new administration, allowing a fresh start in 2009. President-elect Obama will immediately focus on creating jobs and providing much needed relief for American families. Homeowners can take heart that Obama intends to provide direct, immediate assistance by reforming the bankruptcy code, enacting a 90-day foreclosure moratorium and providing state fiscal relief to aid in property tax increases, among other initiatives.
