Plymouth, MN

Mortgage markets improved last week after a series of hugely volatile trading sessions.

Rates carved out a wide range on the week, culminating in a late-Friday plunge that dropped rates by about 1/8 percent.

It was the first time in 5 weeks that mortgage rates fell.

Volatility like that of last week is nothing new on Wall Street; it's been a running theme in 2009. Volatility occurs when markets don't agree on what's next for the economy and, this year, there's been a lot of disagreement like that.

Data has been inconsistent. Take last week for example.

At 9:00 AM Tuesday morning, the Case-Shiller Index showed home prices rising nationwide. Because many analysts believe housing fueled the recession, strength in the sector is widely construed a positive for the economy.

Mortgage rates rose on the news.

But then, an hour later, the national consumer confidence report revealed a substantial deterioration in sentiment versus the month prior. The data forced Wall Street to do an about-face.

Housing is important to the economy, but it can't affect growth like consumer spending can. When Americans are less confident about their future income, they tend to keep their wallets closed, retarding economic growth.

Holiday Shopping Season is getting underway and the last thing businesses want to see is a suddenly reserved American shopper.

This week, the volatility should continue.

In addition to the release of key employment and housing data, the Federal Open Market Committee has a scheduled 2-day meeting. The group's Wednesday afternoon adjournment will influence mortgage rates.

The Fed is widely expected to keep the Fed Funds Rate in its target range near 0.000 percent, but it won't be what the Fed does that will matter as much as what the Fed says.

If the FOMC's press release shows optimism for the economy, mortgage rates will rise in response. Alternatively, if the Fed appears more dour, rates will fall.

Either way, consider locking your rate before the Wednesday afternoon announcement.

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youtube channel: http://www.youtube.com/midwesthomeloans

blog: http://www.homeloansmidwestblog.com/

At some point in their lives, every home buyer in America has wondered "Is now the best time to buy a home?" In this 3-minute video, NBC's The Today Show does a good job of answering the question.

The conclusion? Yes, but not if you're going to overpay.

The Buyers Market is ending, we learn, as home prices rise across most of the country.  Pockets of opportunity remain, however, and the focused home buyer can still find a "good deal".

Some of the video's tips include:

• On what types of homes can you get the best prices
• What you can learn from looking in a seller's closet
• How to identify a desperate seller

The piece also goes negative on short sales, noting the amount of time required to buy one.  Short sales typically do take longer to close versus a "traditional" purchase, but that doesn't mean they should be avoided. 

There's plenty of bargains in the short sale arena, too.

website: http://www.homeloansmidwest.com/

youtube channel: http://www.youtube.com/midwesthomeloans

blog: http://www.homeloansmidwestblog.com/

Some days, newspaper headlines are a terrible place to get your real estate news.

Today is one of those days.

After the September New Home Sales report showed sales volume down from August, the mainstream media jumped on the story:

• New Home Sales fall a surprising 3.6%.
• Surprise Drop In New Home Sales.
• Stocks slide as New Home Sales fall.

But the headlines miss the point, somewhat. Yes, home sales volume is important to housing, but it's not as important as home supply.

A deeper look at the New Home Sales data reveals an interesting comparison point:

• New home sales volume fell 3.6%.
• The number of new homes available for sale fell 3.8%.

In other words, sales outpaced supply -- a running theme this year and a positive signal for housing.

Since peaking in January 2009, the supply of newly-built homes has now dropped by 40 percent. The average sale price is up 15% over the same period.

This is why you can't get your real estate news from the headlines. You have to dig a little bit deeper to get the real story.

September's New Home Sales report was plenty strong. The housing market recovery continues.

website: http://www.homeloansmidwest.com/

youtube channel: http://www.youtube.com/midwesthomeloans

blog: http://www.homeloansmidwestblog.com/

For August, the Case-Shiller Index showed annual home values improving across 19 of 20 U.S. markets. It's the first time in 3-plus years that the benchmark housing index has shown such strength.

According to a Case-Shiller Index spokesperson, "The rate of annual decline in home price values continues to improve."

It's yet another sign that housing may have already bottomed.

However, just because the Case-Shiller Index shows a stabilization in home values, that doesn't necessarily make it true. This is because real estate happens on the local level and the Case-Shiller Index is more "national". It tracks data in just 20 U.S. cities.

Homeowners everywhere else are unaccounted for.

Furthermore, even within the 20 tracked Case-Shiller markets, there's no allowance for the natural sub-markets that exist. Some neighborhoods under-perform and some neighborhoods out-perform.

Case-Shiller treats them all the same.

Despite its imperfections, though, the Case-Shiller Index remains a helpful, broader measurement of U.S. real estate. Economists believe that housing led the U.S. into the recession and they believe housing will lead us out, too.

If that's true, August's Case-Shiller data is another step in the right direction.

website: http://www.homeloansmidwest.com/

youtube channel: http://www.youtube.com/midwesthomeloans

blog: http://www.homeloansmidwestblog.com/

Initial unemployment claims hit their lowest level since January. Retailers post better-than-expected same-store sales. Cisco CEO sees recovery building.

Posted by Elizabeth Strott on Thursday, November 5, 2009 9:59 AM

Updated at 1:30 p.m. ET 

Stocks were surging today as bulls took this morning's economic data as another sign of a recovery. 

At 1:30 p.m. ET, the Dow Jones Industrial Average($INDU) had gained 168 points to 9,970. The NASDAQ Composite Index ($COMPX) had added 43 points to 2,099, and the Standard & Poor's 500 Index ($INX) was up 16 points to 1,063. 

The gains came after the Labor Department this morning said initial jobless claims fell 20,000 to 512,000 last week -- the lowest level since January -- and a report that showed that U.S. productivity rose at the fastest pace in six years in the third quarter. 

Crude oil fell 49 cents to $79.91 a barrel this afternoon. Gold was trading at $1,089 an ounce after hitting a record high of $1,097.72 on Wednesday. 

Both the European Central Bank and the Bank of England kept their key lending rates on hold this morning. The Federal Reserve did the same on Wednesday.

website: http://www.homeloansmidwest.com/

youtube channel: http://www.youtube.com/midwesthomeloans

blog: http://www.homeloansmidwestblog.com/