About Scott County, MN

If last year was any sign of what will happen this year, despite the media reports of doom and gloom, we are personally optimistic.

All the signs are pointing towards a housing turnaround. This morning, many of our real estate news sources had positive and encouraging things to say about the market. Low inventories, rising sales rates, historically low interest rates, and high affordability are working towards creating a balanced market.

This morning, Corelogic reported that housing may turn the corner this year. The Wall Street Journal reports that sales in the market are "stirring hope" but it is not quite as optimisic. And Inman News reports that sales ended on a positive note in 2011, but while it reports sales level increases, it is not reporting optimism in pricing.

On January 16 we issued our predictions for the market for 2012. Our predictions are consistent with the variety of news sources. Will we/they be right? Who knows? What we DO know is that we are seeing positive signs, personally, in our local West Savage and Scott County marketplace.

If you have noticed a general decrease in for sale signs lately, you're perceptive! With only 12 listings on the market in West Savage, 2 sales and ZERO cancelled /expired listings, in the past 45 days one might think the market is quiet. When considering only the inventory, it’s true. Inventory is WAY down.

But the buyers are out there….and early. We did an Open House in The Pointe yesterday (Jan. 15) and had 9 groups of people through – somewhere in the ballpark of 25 people in all. And it’s only January. If we had to pinpoint a reason for all this scuttle, we’d attribute it to low interest rates and the weather. One thing is unchanged though: Urgency. While they are out looking, buyers are not rushing.

Let’s do quick breakdown on the ACTIVE West Savage inventory: 9 of the 12 are TRADITIONAL. 3 of the 12 are DISTRESSED. The pending sale in your Update this month is distressed. Of the two sold properties, one is a foreclosure and one was traditional.

We have enclosed an additional letter in your packet this month. This letter is going out to people we know, and discusses our predictions for the 2012 market. Of particular interest to you might be the notes on foreclosures and what we are hearing “on the street” in our industry.

Single family and townhome inventory in Savage has remained virtually unchanged, while Scott County (as a whole) inventory is on the rise. Our West Savage absorption rate is 3.79. That means if zero new homes come on the market, it will take 3.79 months to sell our existing inventory.

More on http://wwww.WestSavageBlog.com!

Happy New Year! There is a lot of speculation surrounding the 2012 real estate market and what it will bring for buyers and sellers alike. While we do not have a crystal ball, we can take what we saw in 2011, and examine some emerging trends. Here are our predictions for the 2012 market:

• Days-on-market will decrease. In 2011, days-on-market averaged 4-6 months for competitively priced homes. By year end, sales rates increased and inventory levels shrunk, finally bringing us close to a balanced market. (Less than 5 months of supply = balanced market.)
• Buyers will remain active. Interest rates remain at historic lows, and are expected to stay low through 2012. Affordability is at an all time high. Buyers will continue to look but many won’t be in a hurry.
• Big changes are coming to foreclosures, with the intent being to decrease vacancy levels and prevent vandalism. Foreclosure moratoriums and backlogged processing of foreclosures have significantly slowed the rate in which foreclosures hit the market in 2011. Hence, “shadow inventory” – foreclosed homes that have not been listed for sale by the banks - is very high.
  • Banks are expected to begin functioning as landlords, renting out foreclosed homes and keeping them off the market for a period of time. Locally, we are already seeing this in some cases where smaller banks are involved.
  • HUD is permitting buyers to continue to use FHA-insured financing to purchase HUD/ bank-owned properties, no matter how long the homeowner has held the title. (Under normal circumstances, HUD has a no-flipping policy.) This extension is being put into place to keep investors in the market and help absorb inventory more quickly. See our blog at www.WestSavageBlog.com for more on this topic.
  • Some banks are pilot-testing programs where they pay sellers to sell short, vs. foreclose, with incentive payments ranging from $3,000 to $30,000. If programs of this nature take hold in our market, it will reduce our foreclosure inventory and increase short sale inventory. This will remain the most volatile and frustrating part of our market.
  • Pricing will “bob” along. All aspects of the previous point considered, shadow inventory is expected to begin hitting the market this year. As a result we do not expect to see any notable appreciation. Stability remains the goal.

We hope 2011 was a great year for you and your family. If you know of anyone looking to buy or sell a home, or if we can do anything to help with the success of your business, please do not hesitate to contact us.

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