New Brunswick

October posted a negative -18% in listing production for the month of October. This follows a-17% in listing production in the month of September. As bad as this looks it will help correct the overall reduction in sales per month. Thus, keeping the listings to sales ratio relatively at the same spread so we might be able to stay in a prosperity market ( where there as many homes for sale as there are buyers for those homes ) which will help ward off a buyers market. As much as this consistant lose of listings for September and October looks scary it really only amounts to a -7% listing reduction year over year. Because this trend will continue for the rest of the year we will see about a -10% year to year reduction of both listings and sales. This prediction is contrary to this weeks newspaper report which predicts a stronger 2010 market. Although, we will have a relatively good 2010 market I don't see anything strong enough happening in our economy to change my belief that our average dollar production will coninue to decline -10% for 2010. Well, actually this is not so bad as we are riding a boom market this last 10 years so even if we go down 10% in volume we will still be doing just fine.

Sales for October are pleasantly pleasing as they are up 14% over last October. Wow, who would have ever believed that? Our unit sales however are down -3% over last October. Again this is still good in a recessionary market, don't you think? Our year over year production to October is at +2% over last year. Every indication is that November and December should produce about the same. We will see!

To help keep things in perspective lets look at the dollar volume over the last three years. In 2007 October produced $28,829,665, 2008 produced 20,551,809 ( a 29% reduction ), 2009 October produced a 23,399,643 ( a 19% reduction over 2007 ). So you can see that our sales are gradually decreasing from the boom year of 2007. I believe that this trend will continue over the next 5 years where we will probably level out at $20,000,000 months for October.

Well, Folks, you can see we are pleasantly pleased with our year to year volume. The market is still very active and it looks like this trend will continue throughout the rest of the year. There are still some great buys out there so Buyers take note and buy a home for a Christmas present this year. You will be glad you did!!! Interest rates are still at an all time low @ 3.99% as I write this today. Talk to you next month.

So we are celebrating the bountiful harvest!!!

Each year, for the last 2 years, I have been chosen to be the Mascot for our Royal LePage Atlantic Kiosk. The Kiosk is located at the local mall here in Saint John, New Brunswick, and is located in the center aisle of the mall. At our Kiosk we have photos of existing homes for sales on moveable display cases that potential buyers and sellers love to go and flip them over. We also have a computer with a countertop so potential buyers or sellers can sit and discuss any details with the Realtor. Each year, very young kids and their parents come in around 5:00 p.m. till 8:00 p.m. and do their "Trick or Treating" from store vendor to store vendor... It's especially a busy place when the weather is probamatic; today being windy and rain showers.

This is a GREAT time and an effective marketing strategy for getting business cards out to potential sellers and buyer!!!

Last year I played Maleficent the "beautiful" witch from the Sleep Beauty story. This year I played "The Grinch" with a few modifications. My Grinch costume consisted of lime green tights with two pairs of socks; one with strips and the small ones with bells and finished off with elf slippers. (Had to stay comfortable!) The rest of the costume had the official Santa look with "The Grinch" written across the front, with lime green winter gloves and the official "Grinch" mask. Since the mask was warm to wear, when I had it off, I still looked like one of Santa's elves, so I could play two roles in one.

Going back to handing out business cards, this is the way I do it. I get two pieces of "Good candy" and one business card that I put in each Halloween bag. This way I feel like the possibility of getting future clients are higher, since most of the parents will check the candy, they will hopefully pull out the business card and give the candy to their kids, if they don't eat it themselves. LOL Getting the candy bags ready is time consuming, but I believe well worth it.

When I was ready to hand out the candy, it was FUN to see all of the kids & adult costumes and interact with the parents & their kids. The parents and their kids usually start out from one end and work the whole mall through. I usually stay on one side to give all the kids their treats. Today, I gave out 370 BAGS OF CANDY...

I highly recommend this to other Realtors, since it's wonderful to interact with the community on different levels, especially the "humane" and compassionate side of us. All Realtors should have fun with this day, it's a Great time to let loose and make connections with the community and at work.... especially if you've had a Halloween Barbecue at your office the day before!

HAPPY HALLOWEEN....

WELL FOLKS, SEPTEMBER IS UPON US AND THE CRACKS IN OUR PRODUCTION FOR 2009 ARE STARTING TO SHOW. BOTH IN LISTING PRODUCTION AND SALE PRODUCTION. LISTINGS POSTED A -17% REDUCTION FOR SEPTEMBER WHICH WIPES OUT OUR BEAUTIFUL INCREASE 16% IN AUGUST. BUT AGAIN, WE STILL SHOW A VERY CONSISTANT -4% YEAR OVER YEAR REDUCTION FROM LAST YEAR. LOOK FOR A GOOD OCTOBER LISTING FRENZY AND I BELIEVE A CONSISTANT -9% YEAR OVER YEAR BY DECEMBER END.

OUR SALES ON THE OTHER HAND WILL HAVE A MAJOR NEGATIVE CORRECTION IN THE LAST QUARTER OF THIS YEAR. POSSIBLY IN THE -10% TO -15% YEAR OVER YEAR. THIS SAID, SEPTEMBER SURELY ISN'T TOO BAD YET, POSTING A SMALL UNIT REDUCTION OF -9% FOR SEPTEMBER AND A POSITIVE DOLLAR VOLUME OF 1% YEAR OVER YEAR. ACTUALLY, OCTOBER IS NOT LOOKING THAT BAD EITHER AND IT IS EXPECTED TO YIELD A 1% GAIN OVER LAST OCTOBER.

FOLKS ALTHOUGH YEAR TO DATE WE HAVE EXPERIENCED A FANTASTICALLY CONSISTANT BANNER YEAR WE HAVE TO BE REALISTIC AND SEE THAT SUPPLY HAS ALL BUT PAST DEMAND AND THAT WE WILL BE QUICKLY SUBMERGED IN A BUYERS MARKET THIS FALL. THUS SALES WILL BE SLOWED SUBSTANTIALLY AS BUYERS WILL BE EXPECTING A MAJOR REDUCTION IN PURCHASE PRICE WHICH THE VENDORS WILL NOT BE PREPARED TO ACCEPT. IT HAD TO COME SOMETIME SO BE PREPARED TO WORK YOUR DEALS HARD THIS WINTER IN ORDER TO EXACT A SALE TO FRUITION.

AGENTS PREPARE YOURSELF AS THIS BUYERS MARKET THIS FALL WILL HAVE A NEGATIVE IMPACT ON YOU INDIVIDUALLY AND YOU WILL SEE MANY OF YOUR FELLOW REAL ESTATE ASSOCIATES LEAVING THE BUSINESS OVER THE NEXT 12 MONTHS. SORRY, BUT THIS ALWAYS HAPPENS WHEN ONE HAS TO WORK A LOT HARDER THAN YOU WOULD EVER IMAGINE TO EXACT THAT SALE. FOR-WARNED IS FOR-ARMED. I THINK YOU WILL SEE EXACTLY WHAT I AM TALKING ABOUT BY YEAR END. OOHHH BUT I TOO HOPE I AM WRONG!!! DO CHECK MY BLOG AT YEAR END TO SEE AND PLAN TO PLAN, IN WRITING YOUR PRODUCTION GOALS FOR 2010. THIS IS THE ONLY WAY TO BE ASSURED OF YOUR TARGET OBJECTIVES. PREPARE YOURSELF. GOOD LUCK.

SURPRISE, SURPRISE! LISTINGS FOR AUGUST HAVE REDUCED A -16% DEFICIT IN JULY TO 0% IN AUGUST. THIS IS AN INDICATION THAT SALES FOR THIS FALL SHOULD BE QUITE STRONG. HOWEVER, MY GUESS IS THAT A STRONG LISTING MONTH OF AUGUST SHOULD BE SHOWING A STRONG CORRECTION IN SEPTEMBER. WE WILL SEE. NEVER THE LESS, OUR YEAR OVER YEAR STATS SHOW A CONSISTANT -4%. NEXT MONTH IT SHOULD BE ABOUT THE SAME. OUR CURRENT LISTING PORTFOLIO IS STILL 2464 ACTIVE LISTINGS. THIS IS VERY CONSISTANT WITH PREVIOUS YEARS.

OUR SALES UNITS FOR AUGUST DID IN FACT HAVE THE EXPECTED FALL OF -9% FOR AUGUST TO MAKE UP FOR OUR FANTASTIC MONTH OF JULY. THAT'S OKAY AS SALE UNITS YEAR OVER YEAR ARE CONSISTANTLY AT -4%. AGAIN, THE MONTH OF AUGUST IS DOWN -9% IN DOLLAR VOLUME AS EXPECTED. HOWEVER, THE YEAR OVER YEAR VOLUME IS UP 2% OVER LAST YEAR. WHICH IS FANTASTIC.

WHEN YOU LOOK AT THE VERY STRONG FREDERICTON MARKET WITH EMPLOYEMENT AT AN ALL TIME HIGH AND PLENTY OF INFRA-STRUCTURE PROJECTS HAPPENING ALL OVER THE PLACE WE CAN FEEL VERY CONFIDENT THAT 2009 IS DOING JUST GREAT.

INTEREST RATES ARE AT AN ALL TIME LOW, SO BUYERS TAKE ADVANTAGE OF THE WONDERFUL OPPORTUNITY TO INVEST IN HOME OWNERSHIP. YOU DESERVE IT!!!

Canada's national resale housing activity climbed to the highest level of any third quarter on record. MLS systems of Canadian real estate boards totalled 135,182 units in the third quarter of 2009, according to statistics released by The Canadian Real Estate Association (CREA). This is the highest level of activity on record for the period from July to September. The number of transactions was up 18 per cent from the third quarter of last year, representing the biggest year-over-year increase since early 2002. Climbing to $327,736, the national MLS® residential average price rose 11 per cent from the same quarter last year.

This information can be found on the CREA Stats website, dated today, October 15th, 2009.

http://creastats.crea.ca/natl/

Do you believe the trend will continue up?