About Middlesex County, NJ

Middlesex County NJ Market Commentary - March 2012

Reporting period: February 2012

Source data is from the prof. Middlesex County Multiple Listing System database.

Calculated on Sunday 03/11/2012.

Only includes residential homes within Middlesex County NJ (do not include condos, townhouses, adult commun., commerc. ...).

Please read our Disclaimer.

Active Inventory

The Active Inventory also called current supply or unsold homes as tracked in the Middlesex County Multiple Listing System (MLS).

The Active Inventory as we follow it (Active homes for sale not under contract and not under attorney reviews) in February has slightly increased 3.7 % to 2580 homes for sale in Middlesex County NJ and keeps on following the industry seasonal effect and the local and national current trends. This number is only for residential single family homes in Middlesex County NJ and does not include condos, townhouses, multi dwellings, adult community, commercial real estate, etc…Also it may not include for sale by owners. It does not include either any type of Shadow Inventory. The inventory is 7.9% smaller than last year which is a bit of good news. Two months in a row at about7-8% lower than last year. Typically winter months have a lower inventory due to the seasonal effect and holidays (i.e many home sellers take their homes off the market during this season and wait for the spring market to relist, etc…) and the inventory rising with the spring market.

The shadow inventory is mostly made of foreclosed homes not yet listed on the market and also includes more subtle different types such as the “Accidental Landlords” and the folks who put their plans to move (retirement, etc…) on an indefinite temporary hold.…
The oversupply and the shadow inventory especially in New Jersey are some of the concerns leading some experts to expect a continuity of the down trend in 2011 at worst and at best the beginning of home prices consolidation. In some local markets 2011 and 2012 could turn out to be the “home prices” consolidation years.

We have released the yearly stats including 2011, please see at the bottom of this webpage (Yearly Trending).

Pending Sales

Number of homes under contract, not including homes under Attorney Review. This is a newer statistic we are including in our monthly reports. Until now we always have been focused on Sold Homes data to calculate the average/median home prices, SP/AP, DOM and DOI. However Pending Sales because they are captured 1 to 2 month in average prior the Sold time stamp they do offer a more timely view of the market.

For the month of February we had 257 homes coming under contract (as tracked in the Middlesex County MLS). It represents a significant increase versus December and a small increase versus January. It is also up versus last year significantly (28.5%) which is another piece of good news. There is typically a strong correlation between home prices and number of sales. The last 2 months have shown a surprising increase in pending sales.

Buyers per 100 Sellers

This represents the number of buyers per 100 sellers. It is calculated using the Active Inventory and the Pending Sales. This is also a newer Real Estate statistic we have introduced last year in our monthly Middlesex County market report. As time goes we will be able better compare it. For the reported period (February 2012) we had 10 buyers for every 100 home sellers in Middlesex County, NJ which is also an increase versus the previous year and about same as last month. This is another positive for our local markets.

New Homes Listed

For Middlesex County NJ, the number of new homes listed in February has increased versus new homes listed in January (12.9%) (649 new homes listed in Middlesex County). Year over year it has slightly increased 7.6%. New homes listed keep on adding to the already high supply. This increase in new homes listed is contributing to the increase of the Active Inventory. Unfortunately the current Shadow Inventory in New Jersey is placing a potential and very real threat as well on the current Inventory. Per the Otteau Group, NJ has the second largest Shadow Inventory in the US mostly due to the foreclosures backlog.

Number of Sold Homes

In February, the number of sold homes was 197 and has increased 9.4% versus last year. The monthly number of sold homes remains low and reflects the overall local slower market with very few “willing and able” buyers ready to “pull the trigger”. One thing to remember is that this specific statistic by its nature looks at the sales activities from 2-3 months back. The Pending Sales is a timelier statistic in term of market activity and show an increase in activity with a substantial pick up in Pending Sales (Current Sales) since January.

Median Sold Price and Average Sold price

The average (mean) sold price ($292,645) keeps on decreasing versus last month -4.5%) and year over year the average sold price has decreased -9.3%.

The median sold price ($250,000) follows the same trend and has also decreased versus last month and decreased significantly versus last year (-12.3%). Those numbers reflects the price direction from 2010 to 2011 and the downtrend strength (see our Yearly Trending review below). Do not forget that real estate is hyper local and we are currently seeing specific neighborhoods and zip codes with an average price YTD higher than last year. Only time will tell but it is a possibility that those specific neighborhoods/zip codes will end up with home prices in 2012 being higher than in 2011.

Sold Price / Asking Price (SP/AP) Ratio

SP/AP ratio is 92.59% which is a decrease versus January and decreased versus last year. We can see very clearly the direction of the pressure on home prices. In average, sellers are negotiating and accepting offers at 92.59% of their last asking price. Please note that I mentioned "last asking price" and not "original asking price" which is very different and could take a few price reductions for sellers to get there if pricing is not properly set from the start.

The 92% range is one of the lowest ranges we have witnessed since the beginning of the down trend in 2006/2007.

At the end the Sale of a home should really be considered a business transaction and as such the various business decisions such as pricing be made in a knowledgeable fashion based on current and local data and not emotions.

Days on Market (DOM)

Another real estate statistic is Days on Market or DOM which is flat at 102 days versus last month and decreased versus last year. A word of caution with this indicator as it is NOT a cumulative DOM. Meaning the clock re-starts with any new listing contract for the same home. Thus this statistic does not indicate to home sellers the average time on the market before going under contract. This is a good example of the better value of looking at those statistics, which is more in the trend analysis and local markets comparison than in a specific number at a specific given time.

Days of Inventory (DOI) or Absorption Rate

Days of Inventory (DOI) which is a derived number of the Active Inventory and Sold Homes has consequently increased. At 406 days, it means it would take over 1 year to sell all existing inventory with no additional inventory coming on the market. A market with over 6 months supply would usually qualify as a buyer's market. A market with less than 6 months of supply would usually qualify as a seller's market. DOI does not take into consideration the NJ shadow inventory.

That’s the end of our local market commentary based on Middlesex County NJ real estate statistics. As always, contact me if any questions.

Cathy Chaudemanche Team, Sunday 03/11/2012

P.S.

In real estate as in business, what you don’t know can cost you! Whether you are selling your home, a first time home buyer or a seasoned investor, I can help you by providing you with the knowledge and facts you need to make sound decisions in our current and local markets. Read what others have to say, then when you are ready contact me-

Please read our disclaimer

	» I want to see more local Housing Graphs & Trends ->
» Email me automatically new homes that fits my criteria as soon as they come on the market ->
» I want to know more about local down payment programs/grants (ADD, SS, WWYL, USDA) and sellers concession ->

Read our Disclaimer

Piscataway real estate , Metuchen real estate, North Edison real estate, Fords real estate, Iselin real estate and Woodbridge real estate in greater Middlesex County, New Jersey.

Catherine "Cathy" Chaudemanche Team
Local Realtor Associate
NJAR Circle of Excellence Sales Award - 2009, 2010, 2011
Certified Luxury Home Marketing Specialist
Short Sales and Foreclosures Specialist
Agent Leadership Council
Keller Williams Elite Realty.
Middlesex County NJ Market Center-

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Follow us, Friend us...if you are looking for up to date New Jersey, Middlesex County, Metuchen, Edison Real Estate Statistics, Trends, Graphs, Market Commentary and News.

Previous posts and achives for Middlesex County Real Estate Statistics and Market Commentary

Middlesex County NJ Real Estate Statistics - March 2012

Those Middlesex County real estate statistics include residential one family only. They do not include townhouses, condos, co-ops, multi-family, commercial properties, etc... Data is from the Middlesex County Multi Listing System (MLS) and is the basis for our Middlesex County NJ real estate statistics and market commentary.

Middlesex County Real Estate Statistics	February 2012*	January 2012**	February 2011***	Feb/Jan 2012 (%)	Feb2012/Feb2011 (%)
Active Inventory	2580	2489	2800	3.7%	-7.9%
Pending Sales	257	244	200	5.3%	28.5%
Buyers per 100 Sellers	10 per 100	10 per 100	7 per 100	0.0%	42.8%
New Homes Listed	649	575	603	12.9%	7.6%
Sold Homes	197	196	180	0.5%	9.4%
Median Sold Price (MSP)	$250,000	$259,250	$285,000	-3.6%	-12.3%
Average Sold Price (ASP)	$292,645	$306,403	$322,566	-4.5%	-9.3%
Sold Price/Asking Price (SP/AP)	92.59%	93.87%	92.98%	-1.4%	-0.4%
Days on Market (DOM)	102	102	126	0.0%	-19.0%
Days of Inventory (DOI) or Absorption Rate	406	394	482	3.0%	-15.8%

Middlesex County Real Estate Statistics Calculated on *Sunday 03/11/2012 ** Tuesday 02/21/2012 ***March 2011

	» I want to see more local Housing Graphs & Trends ->
» Email me automatically new homes that fits my criteria as soon as they come on the market ->
» I want to know more about local down payment programs/grants (ADD, SS, WWYL, USDA) and sellers concession ->

Read our Disclaimer

Piscataway real estate , Metuchen real estate, North Edison real estate, Fords real estate, Iselin real estate and Woodbridge real estate in greater Middlesex County, New Jersey.

Catherine "Cathy" Chaudemanche Team
Local Realtor Associate
NJAR Circle of Excellence Sales Award - 2009, 2010, 2011
Certified Luxury Home Marketing Specialist
Short Sales and Foreclosures Specialist
Agent Leadership Council
Keller Williams Elite Realty.
Middlesex County NJ Market Center-

Follow us, Friend us, Like us...we always replicate! Grow your networks and close more deals!!

Follow us, Friend us...if you are looking for up to date New Jersey, Middlesex County, Metuchen, Edison Real Estate Statistics, Trends, Graphs, Market Commentary and News.

Previous posts and achives for Middlesex County Real Estate Statistics and Market Commentary

Since one of my hobbies is reading, I have come across loads of sayings that sometimes hit home. When I find one I jot them down in my journal. Ya never know when you are going to need words to pick you up or make you go hummmmm! I would like to share a few of my favs with you all............so here goes.

You have to learn the rules of the game, and then you have to play better than anyone else...........Albert Einstein

Don't find fault, find a remedy........Henry Ford

If you don't like something change it. If you can't change it, change your attitude.......Maya Angelou

Worrying is like a rocking chair, it gives you something to do but it gets you nowhere........Glen Turner

Take care of your body, it's the only place you have to live........Jim Rohn

We do not need magic to transform our world, we carry all of the power we need inside ourselves already....JK Rowling

Others can stop you temporarily - you are the only one who can do it permanetly....Zig Ziglar

Enjoy life as it is today........it is going to change.............Stephen Ranjewan

Experience enables you to recognize a mistake when you make it again.....Franklin P Jones

A healthy attitude is contagious, but don't wait to catch it from others....Be A Carrier...Tom Stoppard

AND ONE OF MY FAVORITE IS...........

A word to the wise ain't necessary, it's the stupid ones that need the advice.....Bill Cosby

I hope you enjoyed these and feel free to use them but please remember to give credit to the ones who said a mouthful. (Hey I would also love to read your favorite to add to my journal..........thanks)

March 2012 Market Update

Opportunities in the housing market continue to grow for buyers and sellers. Home affordability, driven mostly by record low interest rates, is among the lowest it has ever been. According to the National Association of Realtors, and based on national averages, the payments on a home today represent 12.8% of the median household income. This is both a good sign for those looking to purchase a home, and for the economy overall as consumers are keeping more money in their pockets.

If you’re seller, the housing market shows signs of transitioning from a buyers’ market more of a balanced one. This means that home owners should start to see prices stabilize and begin to grow, presenting more favorable opportunities for those looking to sell their homes. In regards to the number of homes on the market, a key indicator of the health of the housing market, Lawrence Yun, NAR chief economist, said, “The broad inventory condition can be described as moving into a rough balance, not favoring buyers or sellers.”

With continuing job creation, the improving housing sector, and signs that the banks are beginning to lend more, 2012 looks to offer promising opportunities to both those looking to buy or sell a home.

Home Sales

in millions

Home sales were up 4.3% in January from December 2011 to 4.57 million (seasonally adjusted), and this is up from 0.7% from the year before. The steady increase in home sales over the last few months is positive encouragement for a continued housing recovery. Lawrence Yun said, “The uptrend in home sales is in line with all of the underlying fundamentals– pent-up household formation [lack of new home construction], record-low mortgage interest rates, bargain home prices, sustained job creation, and rising rents.”

.

Home Price

in thousands

Adding to home affordability in January, the median home price was down 2% from a year ago, to $154,700. While prices are still declining, foreclosed and other distressed properties, which have been putting downward pressure on home prices, are being moved more efficiently off the market, and default rates on home mortgage payments for the past three years are among the lowest in history.

Inventory- Month's Supply

in months

As sales increase with a growing demand for homes, the inventory of properties for sale fell 0.4% to 2.31 million, or a 6.1-month supply at the current sales level. This is down from a 6.4-month supply in December 2011. Historically, a 6-month supply has meant that the housing sector is balanced–favoring neither buyers’ nor sellers’.

Source: National Association of Realtors

Interest Rates

The most powerful indicator of home affordability, interest rates on mortgage loans, were down again in January. The national average for a 30-year fixed mortgage was 3.92%, down 0.04% from the month before, and down nearly an entire percentage point (0.84%) from a year ago. These historically low rates, coupled with today’s home prices, represent an incredible opportunity for home buyers.

This Month's Video

Topics For Home Owners, Buyers & Sellers

Preparing your home for sale can seem daunting, but these tips will help you get the best price in the least amount of time.

1. Organizing and cleaning are crucial when prepping a home for sale. Potential homebuyers have a more positive reaction to a home that is clutter-free and that gives them the feeling it is “move-in ready.”

2. Determine replacement estimates before listing your home, even if you are not planning on making the replacements yourself. This information can help buyers make informed decisions.

3. Have your warranties ready—especially for home appliances that will stay with the home after the sale.

4. Curb appeal is a crucial factor because it determines first impressions. A poor first impression can cloud their entire opinion about the home.