THE BROKEN WINDOW THEORY....A Call to Action for the real estate community.....

I read in the Wall street Journal yesterday of the passing of a great conservative thinker and theorist, James Q Wilson. He was the source of a new theory about crime in the early 60's, which offered up an unusual experiment of sorts and something about his legacy and this experiment in particular, left me wondering...Can and does this theory apply more broadly in society? Can and should we apply this sort of thinking in our own profession, within our own communities?....You be the judge:

SETTING THE STAGE.

In the late 1960's and early 1970's people would have to literally climb over garbage piles in New York City--in the 70's I can remember stepping over 3-4 sleeping bodies in the entry-way to my building in Murray Hill. Crime was a way of life in Manhattan as you fought for your right to maneuver through the streets and subways without being physically accosted or worse yet, mugged on your way to work!

THE THEORY. (A broken window changes EVERYTHING!!!)

A car was left abandoned for days on a street in New York City in the early 1960s; the team who intentionally abandoned it, later broke one of the windows in it and left it for many nights. During the time of abandonment and the window being broken, little attention was paid to the car sitting there unattended. Once the window was broken however, there was a wave of attacks and raids on the car until it sat in utter ruin on the street. Wilson's thinking was that the indication of any criminal activity even in the slightest way, paved the way for an onslaught that could, and did, make a city ungovernable.

This theory was behind the monumental crime fighting efforts in New York City and for the major clean-up of New York by Mayor Rudy Giuliani in the 70's and 80's; an act that made history in the annals of crime prevention and changed the environment of the city to this day. Police Chief Bratton and Mayor Giuliani were the leaders in this effort and they made history as the crime rates dropped. To this day, major metropolitan areas all over the map have used the same theory and in cleaning up the mess that is part of big city life, crime rates are at all time lows in most major cities in the USA.

HOW DOES THIS APPLY TO US?

Just how does a minor indication of neglect in a neighborhood really affect that particular market? If someone walks away from their home by choice and leaves it sitting there without any sign of life, how long does it take to affect the houses in close proximity?

Without the help of a very interested party or parties, home abandonment can become the abandoned car in a Manhattan street, waiting for the criminal element to do it's job. It has happened here; yes right here in this bucolic and treasured resort area of the "Rich and Famous"!! And it is projected to be an even bigger event if things aren't handled properly and with great dispatch!

In this roving profession called real estate, I see that we need to become a more diverse collection of social advocates---who better to be made aware of the growing problem of home abandonment that those of us who have chosen this career? We have access to more homes than any other profession and we surely see the signs of abandonment before anyone else does.....

• A door, off it's hinges and sitting ajar
• A window cracked and left in disrepair
• Grass left to grow long and well beyond other lawns in an area
• No sign of life; "no one lives here any longer"
• Newspapers piled and strewn across the property
• General unkempt appearance
• A sign posted for "AUCTION"

There-in lies the key to property values, to say nothing of the crime rate in a given area! We all know this, but how much of an impact does the neglect really have on a whole community or even a whole city???

I suggest that we, as real estate professionals, need to observe the way in which an area or a neighborhood presents itself--That we, in keeping with our basic Human Nature and our commitment to our clients and customers, make an attempt to let the authorities know when a house has been abandoned. Take the time to report it to the police, to zoning boards, town officials and to those in charge of city or town clean-up. If we know for a fact that the house next door has been left by the owner and that there is a real possibility of abandonment, let the authorities know right away...All it takes is ONE house to be left abandoned to pull down ALL property values of a street or an area....I have been known to pick up old newspapers piling up on an abandoned doorstep--or clear clutter away on a driveway. It does not take much to help relieve the decrepitude from creeping into a neighborhood!

We are NOT out of the woods yet where foreclosures are concerned and we need to be vigilant like never before---When these abandoned houses first appeared in many neighborhoods, people were taken by surprise! Denial set in and many drove by these houses without even looking at them anymore! We can no longer ignore this fact of life! Now we know that this will happen and we need to be our own best advocates for those areas which we claim to be our areas of expertise!

It IS Human Nature to want to keep civility in our communities---this is the best way to make sure we all remain civil!

"LET'S MAKE A PLAN!!"...."I Want To List Your House---But Only If You Really Want To Sell It!...A BOLD, Fresh and new approach is needed now in this market--So let's make a Fresh Start with your home!"

This is what I like to say to the seller who is wavering about listing a property with me. I say: "Let's make a plan" because this is the way to get focused on the real need to sell or NOT to sell for the homeowner. It also lets the owner know that you have a lot of bold, fresh, new ideas to get their home sold and get the the very best price.

This marketplace is humming again--Southampton, Bridgehampton and East Hampton New York are all having a resurgence! Your market may be seeing the same kind of revival---so now is the time for BOLD, FRESH, NEW IDEAS!

AGENTS NEED A BOLD, FRESH APPROACH IN ORDER TO SUCCEED!

The whole concept of building a "New" reputation and putting yourself out there as the agent with the "Fresh" new ideas is the way to capture the attention of someone who wants to list their home--so why not try to give the image of creative, BOLD and fresh thinking when you make your pitch for a new listing?

If you lay out a plan together you get the benefit of knowing the "ins" and "outs" of what the seller has on his/her mind. You can establish a price at this time and you can make sure the price is what YOU want it at, based upon your research of recently sold properties. If the plan opens up a conversation of the timing wanted or needed to get the house sold, then you will have the advantage of knowing how to proceed.

If the timing is such the the owner does not really care if they sell the house quickly or not then you can make your agreement reflect that--in fact I recommend that you take a longer time period for the agreement if they are not in a hurry.

A really good plan should include the following:

1. The Right Price--based upon the sold comps in the area. (Not always what the owner wants to hear!)
2. Timing-- a good plan will include a start date for the listing and a target "sold" date so that the owner knows the facts and how they apply to his/her life. I like to give two target dates; one reflects the optimal time period based on other sales in the area, properly priced homes and staged properties (a Fresh approach!). The other target date for a sale would reflect extra time if the price is not on the mark...and if the suggestions for staging are not followed. This is very informative to the seller--let's them understand the time-differential between a fresh, new listing and one that is not quite up to the expectations of the buying public.
3. Strategy--This will let the owner know of just how you plan on getting the house sold. It will include your plans for marketing the property; it will include a detailed advertising plan as well. I use a story format--telling them the story of how I will market their home I use this method and it can be very informative to the seller.
4. 10 Point Action Plan--This is the summation of all the details, a crucial piece to the whole process of listing a property; it gives a point by point plan of action so that you leave nothing up in the air or in question for the seller....I take each step from the meeting with the owner, to the signing of the agreement and disclosures, to the creating video and fliers, post cards and even a website for the listing. bullet points are necessary here. I have even had the seller tell me that they can understand exactly what the process will be when they hire me. It helps me to keep on track with the things I want to accomplish as well!--..Never had an unhappy seller yet!!!

In this market, where sales are starting to increase and inventories can begin to look old and dated, we all need to take a FRESH Approach in order to peak the interest of buyers and sellers.

A FRESH, NEW approach is needed now--Let us all know if you have any "NEW" ideas for taking listings and marketing them!

WHEN DO YOU SAY "ENOUGH IS ENOUGH"?

My home is on the market here in Southampton Village and I live here. It is located in a very "hot" area right now so everyday I get calls to show it and some of them are really off-the-wall calls; I liken some of them to a pie in the face, catching me by surprise, especially since these agents know I am a fellow agent!

HERE ARE JUST A FEW:

• My buyer loves the street you live on--he is dying to see a house on your street--can I show your house tomorrow? (The exact words of an agent!)
• He doesn't really care about the zoning....He really wants to just take a look.
• What do you mean "Did you qualify him"?
• If my buyer likes your house, can he rent it with an option to buy? (This is after I told the agent my house is rented for summer 2012.)
• My buyer is looking for a real deal---will you give him a better price than your asking price?

These were actual questions that I fielded this last week from a couple of agents who wanted to show my house. Some of these questions REALLY killed me! One of these agents was unaware (for some reason, since I make sure that information is on the listing!) that I am the owner/broker for the property. He absolutely floored me when he asked for the listing as an exclusive!!!

Last night I had one of those calls where the agent who is not from the area, called me very late asking if she could show the house at 10:00 this morning...I told her that the house is rented for the summer and will not be able to close until after Labor Day and asked if her buyer knows that....she brushed that off and said "No, but he really wants to see your house." I told her that since it is rented and he can't buy it until after Labor Day, there was no rush to get in to see it...besides, which, I am struggling to get around with a very badly injured knee and I am scheduled for surgery next wednesday--and my dog is not well--so if she could just hold him off for a week that would be better for me.

The agent was not happy to hear that and said: "Well, I have never had anyone tell me not to show their house if they really want to sell!"...where-upon I informed her that in my many years of experience, when a buyer is pushing like that to get in to see a house--that the person is not a real buyer and may even have another agenda--and I am not in any condition to prepare my house for a showing, (I like my house to be immaculate and lighted) take my dog out for her to show it and then find out the guy was not a real buyer.

She was not happy but took that as a "no" and hung up.....then called me back in 1/2 an hour insisting that the guy was real, that it does not matter that it is rented because he would be re-doing it or tearing it down....I said: "Wait a minute--I have written in the notes that this house is over 75 years old and has to go through the ARB (Architectural review Board) to get approval for tear down--and they may say no--Did you tell him that?" Her response? "Oh that's ok, he will just re-do it then! He just wants to be in that neighborhood"...defeated I said ok to the 10:00 appointment this morning and went to bed....

I was awakened several times during the night with my dog in terrible shape, needing to get to the hosptial first thing....so I cleaned up the house (took me an hour--very hard on my poor knee), dressed and took him to the hospital at 9:30, leaving the front door unlocked for the agent and her "buyer"...

As I stood in the waiting room at the animal hospital at 10:00, my little dog wrapped in a wee-wee pad and my knee killing me (I was afraid to sit down, in case I could not get up!) my cell phone rang in my pocket---I struggled to get it and saw it was the agent calling me---"Hi Paula!---just wanted to let you know that the buyer has not even left the city yet because of the snow so I think we need to cancel...." and I hung up!

WHEN DO YOU SAY ENOUGH IS ENOUGH?

WHAT'S WITH THE SUPER-CRITICAL ATTITUDE??...Why Is There Such A Need To Make others Wrong??

I love it here on ActiveRain...I love the posts because they are so informational---I love the posts because they are so eye-opening and Leading Edge in terms of their perspective. I have met more unusual, informed, intellectual and tech-savvy people here than anywhere else on the web. This is where it is at when it comes to real estate; and I am sure everyone would agree that the time spent here on ActiveRain is time well spent and even tremendously valuable to our businesses.

There is one thing that I am having great difficulty with and that is the NEED for some to be super-critical! This tendency for super-critical analysis has become so, well frankly, blatant that I just have to speak up.

I know that there have been times when I will write a post where-in I criticize a point of view, a bad habit or even a way of doing business. And some may say I am even super-critical myself! However, when it becomes the sole purpose of a post to criticize without a full idea of what the criticism is affecting in terms of a practice that is in line with the law in certain markets---well, it just shows an ignorance of the real factors.

In fact, in the last super-critical post I read, there is a "slamming" of the way certain states set up their agency requirements and a claim of "Greed" when it comes to the way agents from these states are working with buyers and sellers, when in fact they are working well with in their state agency laws and well within the way the buyers and sellers want to be serviced.

There is a "slamming" and name calling in this post and it is done without regard or even the mention that there are many states that operate in a way that is not uniform throughout the United States; WHERE IT IS PERFECTLY LEGAL TO WORK WITH THE BUYER AND SELLER AS LONG AS YOU HAVE DISCLOSED IT AND GIVEN THE BUYER AN OPPORTUNITY TO CHOOSE A BUYERS BROKER!

I think that is just fine, don't you?---what do we want? A state by state function of the needs of each state or do we want a Federal mandate as to how we should all operate in our respective marketplaces??? (Sounds like socialism to me!)

IF A BUYER WANTS TO WORK WITH A LISTING AGENT FOR WHATEVER REASON---WHO CAN QUESTION THEIR MOTIVES???

In my opinion, Buyer Brokerage has become a "politically correct" encumbrance that makes the super-critical agent want to identify, call out and in general, make life miserable for the other agent who gets a call from a buyer on a listing they are representing. "The selfish, greedy agent should not take this buyer on (even with full disclosure and a rejected offer of a buyer broker) because all they want is both sides of the deal!!!"...and to the buyer who CHOOSES to work with the listing agent instead of being represented by a buyers brokerage, this same "Super-Critical" agent will say: "They think they are going to get a cut of the commission--or they only want to cut a better deal with that under-handed listing agent!"...Makes me question the motives of an agent who constantly looks at the other agent who is operating within the law while said agent has another set of laws that they must work within. If there is a real issue--call the state where the "Crime" is being committed!

"HOW DARE YOU CALL YOURSELF AN EXPERT!!!"

Then there is the other type of super-critical blogger who says: "Don't you dare call yourself an expert!!!" ....Why? because others may feel that they are NOT an expert IF said agent has taken the moniker?? Or, maybe because by being so sure of yourself, you are up to NO GOOD???

Does the agent who says this about themselves have a secret agenda that is to out-do all others??? Who cares??? Don't we all do that anyway??? Last time I checked leaders are usually "experts" by default--otherwise they would not be leaders!!

I personally could care less if an agent is out there doing the things that I mention above! There is nothing I can do even if they are doing it LEGALLY OR ILLEGALLY!...Wait a minute--last time I looked there were even worse things going on in this business!!! I know of a pedophile who ran an office here--made international news because he was from Germany and ran an office with a system for international peophilia!

So, I am going to get on with my work, do it as I see fit within the law, and I may even call myself an expert in an area or on an issue if I feel so inclined---and if I get criticized for doing so, so be it!

LET'S NOT TRY TO CONTROL OTHERS THROUGH CRITICISM--IT'S REALLY NOT VERY EFFECTIVE, NOW IS IT?

THE SUPER-CRITIC REALLY BUGS ME, CAN YOU TELL??? :)

THE HAMPTONS IS SET FOR A BANNER YEAR!....Already, Sales Are On The Increase!!

In my last market report and Hamptons News Letter, I talk about the upward trend in real estate sales, specifically at the high end of the market. When I last checked, the number of signed contracts appeared to be at a record high and now, as closings are happening, we can see the results of a very busy year.

SLOWEST TIME OF YEAR TURNS OUT TO BE THE BUSIEST!

The Holiday period, from Thanksgiving through the New Year, is usually the slowest time of the year for real estate sales. Most families are traveling, going to weddings, celebrating the Holidays or just relaxing at the end of the year.

In 2011, however, there were a large number of buyers out there looking to take advantage of low interest rates, and even lower prices--plus the known positive factor of owning a "Tangible Asset".

The "East End" of Long island includes the Hamtpons and the North Fork. The source for the following numbers is from Suffolk Profiles, a county reporting agency:

FIRST WEEK OF JANUARY, 2012 NUMBER OF SALES: 38 CLOSINGS

SECOND WEEK OF JANUARY, 2012 NUMBER OF SALES: 100 CLOSINGS

THE HIGH END OF THE MARKET IS THE WINNER SO FAR IN 2012

In the case of Hamptons sales, the High end of the market is the most active with strong sales coming in on $5million and up properties for 2012. I was reviewing the listings that I had forwarded to a buyer in Italy. He was interested in seeing houses from $6mil. to $25mil. to get an idea of what was available at those price points.

I had sent these listings to him at the end of November. Now, as I review what I had sent to him and in my effort to bring him up to speed on the Hamptons, I found the following:

LEE AVENUE, EAST HAMPTON, NEW YORK--IN CONTRACT (ASK 24,500,000)

MARINA DRIVE, EAST HAMPTON--SOLD FOR $6MILLION (ASK $6.495MIL)

CRESCENT AVENUE, SOUTHAMPTON (WATER MILL)--IN CONTRACT (ASK $19,950,000)

FLYING POINT ROAD, SOUTHAMPTON (WATER MILL) --IN CONTRACT ($5,975,000)

Now, these were from the number of listings that I sent to him; there were many more that I have not yet identified and many are at the high end of the spectrum. I have already heard from the man in Italy; he is now ready to buy!!!

We are already well on our way to a banner year for 2012 in real estate--lets hope it continues. I believe we have recovered form the malaise of the last 4 years and that we will see positive results going forward.

BELOW IS THE MARKET REPORT/NEWSLETTER FOR JANUARY 14, 2012

HAMPTONS MARKET REPORT(The 2012 market is showing a leap forward in sales….)	January 15 2012
Real estate sales are showing a steady increase for the new year and most authorities speak positively about the real estate market in general for 2012.	2012 will be a banner year for real estate, according to projections from the National Association of Realtors.

HAMPTON’S MARKET REPORT

January 14, 2012

HIGH END OF THE MARKET TRENDING UP

· The Hampton’s real estate market has seen a leap forward in sales in the past 2 weeks.

· The high end of the market is taking the majority of dollars spent and there is an upward trend going forward, according to the number of showings and buyers who have requested information on high end properties.

· January 1, 2012 through January 6^, 2012: 38 closings

· January 7, 2012 through January 13, 2012: 100 closings.

· All of these closings were generated from 2011 business.

· The Holiday season (Thanksgiving, Hanukkah and Christmas) of 2011 was one of the busiest periods in a long time; The Holiday time period is normally the slowest time of year for real estate sales.

· This follows a jump in sales for total year, 2011 (See Elliman report attached. Q4 is not yet available)

· We are seeing a collection of first time offerings of premier ocean front listings come on the market in just the last month.

· All five of the listings that are shown on the following pages (sold and in-contracts) were introduced to the market place as first time offerings.

· Projections for 2012 are all very optimistic with some prognosticators seeing a banner year for real estate sales.

· INVESTORS LOOK FOR TANGIBLE ASSET INVESTMENTS

· All properties below have closed or will close in the next few weeks. In addition to the shown properties there are ocean front listings that are getting the attention of investors who want to own a part of the Hamptons and need a portion of their portfolio to represent a tangible asset like real estate.

· This is a trend that has become stronger as the market improves and as other forms of investment become more risky.

· As the market recovers, the showings of ocean front properties have increased and more homeowners are considering putting their homes on the market.

· Click here to see the full ELLIMAN report for 3^rd Quarter of 2011

Paula I Hathaway, LBA, SVP

Prudential Douglas Elliman, Southampton, New York