Collingwood, ON

I've just spent the last hour or so scratching my head over economic theories. The rules I was taught says that when supply exceeds demand, prices go down and when demand exceeds supply, prices go up. Nope. Not so. Not true. Not in our area anyway.

The first quarter of 2008 is already complete (where in the heck did that time go?) and the stats are in. Here are some highlights from the residential market data taken from our Georgian Triangle (Ontario) Real Estate Board Multiple Listings System (MLS®) data:

Listings
The number of residential listings in the Georgian Triangle areas as a whole is up 32% from last month with 252 new listings registered. This is down 12% from March 2007.

Sales
The number of residential sales in March was up 15% over the previous month with 98 properties sold. This is down from March '07 when 107 units sold.
Sales in the first quarter of 2008 were up slightly compared to the first quarter of 2007.

Prices
Here's the rub. Although the supply is up more than the demand, the average sale price (based on a 12 month average) was up at the end of March '08 by 7% over March '07 and is even up for the last few months. In fact, the current average sale price of a residential property in the Georgian Triangle is at an all-time high of about $293,000.

Clearview $322,200
Collingwood $246,500
Meaford $257,500
Blue Mountain $467,000
Wasaga Beach $251,900

The sales-to-listings ratio is now at a buyers market level in every area except for Wasaga Beach and Meaford but we have not seen this translated in prices. Not yet anyway.

So here are a few of my thoughts on this. The market has performed better year to date than many expected and, the rise in the average prices continues. Having said that, sales in the last two weeks of March appear to have dropped dramatically and I suspect April numbers will be less positive. The listing inventory is increasing, the sales to listing ratio is dropping and the number of expired listings is also increasing. These are indicators of a slowing market.

The big question we all have on our minds is, will the spring bring renewed life to the market? Will world news and media doom frighten buyers or will consumer confidence and low interest rates propel continued activity?

South Georgian Bay is home to many condominium communities and some of the more established ones are located on the western edge of Collingwood. While there are literally thousands of new ones planned or already underway, some of the old projects are still tried and true offering buyers great value for their dollar.

One such development is Rupert's Landing which was built by Rupert Bronsdon between 1986 and 1989. It's situated on 18 acres of waterfront with a total of 207 units: 156 town home styled units and 51 apartment units in "the tower." The town homes are one and two level summer and ski condo designs although in recent years, more and more people have been moving into these units as full-time, permanent residents.

One of the things I find interesting about Rupert's is that a number of the owners have more than one unit and, owners are very loyal to the development. I've known several people over the years who have sold a unit only to buy a larger one in the same development. That's a very strong testimonial, isn't it? You'll also notice if you drive through that the buildings are very well maintained and look like new yet they are in a mature setting with lots of tall evergreens and lush shrubbery.

In addition to nice jogging or walking trails and a private marina, Rupert's Landing has over a ½ mile of Georgian Bay shoreline, tennis courts, a playground and, a 6000 square foot rec centre complete with indoor pool, squash courts, work-out room and a social room. Rupert's also has a special gem in the form of Penny - the long time recreation director who plans a myriad of social activities and events from coffee to tournaments.

This development was the subject of some prolonged internal difficulties regarding the shared facilities that resulted in legal action. Thankfully, that is now behind everyone and for buyers, the units are one of the better values out there today as they recover from that turbulent period.

PLEASE NOTE: THIS LISTING IS NOW SOLD.

When it’s time to buy or sell real estate in the Collingwood, Blue Mountain or Georgian Triangle area, contact Marg, an experienced and competent Broker who’s ready whenever you are!

In Part 1, we looked at the general considerations you might want to think about before deciding if you are ready to build your own home. Here, we'll look at some of the land and site preparation considerations and costs.

First you need to find a suitable piece of vacant land which might be in-town or may be in the country. Once you have that general idea and have selected a potential location, there are, as a minimum, many questions you need to find answers for such as:

• What is the zoning on the property and what are the zoning provisions? These are things like what uses are permitted, what are the required set back allowances, maximum or minimum frontages, buildings, etc. This is very important!
• Are building permits readily available?
• Is the property under the jurisdiction of other bodies such as the Niagara Escarpment Commission or a local Conservation Authority in Grey or Simcoe? If so, what are their requirements and zone provisions?
• What is the zoning of neighbouring properties? You might not enjoy having a pig farm or chicken farm across the road or upwind. In town, that vacant land parcel behind you might be a convenience store some day or perhaps a gas station.
• If the land is rural, is it on a school bus route and is it well-maintained in the winter?
• What municipal services are available and at what cost? It can be very expensive to bring in hydro if it is far from an existing pole or if you plan to set your home far back on a property. What about municipal water and sewers? If you'll need to drill a well, how is the water table in the area both in terms of quality and quantity? Would you easily be able to get a septic permit or will you need to have the site engineered and thousands of dollars of fill added? Can you get natural gas for heating?
• Is high speed internet available?
• Is a survey available for the property?
• Is the lot subject to flooding?

The cost of buildable vacant land in our area can range anywhere from $40,000 to over $600,000 depending of course on the location but also upon the desirability of the lot for building and, the costs to prepare the site. In addition to acquiring the lot, there are several other costs to consider before you put a shovel in the ground.

• legal fees, land transfer tax and miscellaneous land acquisition costs
• Survey, design fees and blue prints
• Health Unit inspection/ septic permit application if applicable and potentially site changes to accommodate approved septic, may also require engineer study of the site
• Well drilling and well equipment if applicable
• Fees to connect to municipal water and sewers including hook-ups and meters
• Building permit application (and several other permit fees)
• Hydro servicing
• Development Charges/lot levies. These can be VERY substantial and you should determine these costs during a conditional period for due diligence when you make an offer on a property. See links to municipal pages below to find out fees.
• Fill. Again, this may be a requirement of your plan based on topography however, it may also be required by the permitting authorities be it a conservation authority, the NEC, the Town or the Health Unit. This can be a considerable expense.
• The cost to put in the driveway.

To get an idea of costs, have a look at permit fees on the various municipal sites such as Collingwood's , the Town of Blue Mountains, Clearview's, Wasaga Beach's or Meaford's .

Remember, all of these costs are incurred BEFORE you put a shovel into the ground. We'll take a look at building costs next week.

When it’s time to buy or sell real estate in the Collingwood, Blue Mountain or Georgian Triangle area, contact Marg, an experienced and competent Broker who’s ready whenever you are!

Last Monday, Garth Turner's new book, Greater Fool: The Troubled Future of Real Estate, came out in bookstores across Canada. It got him some pretty good media coverage which is not a bad thing for a politician potentially facing an election this year. Way to go Garth!

This former business editor and infomercial guy has a penchant for making predictions but so far, he's almost always been wrong. Like in 1987 when he predicted a real estate recession was at hand. Interestingly, in an article in last weeks Toronto Star, it says,

"... try to find a respected Canadian economist who buys into Turner's pessimism. People at the University of Toronto's economics department, the Ivey School of Business at the University of Western Ontario and University of British Columbia's Centre for Urban Economics and Real Estate couldn't find one for us. While most seem to think a gradual softening is likely after 10 years of constant price increases, a U.S. style meltdown doesn't appear to be on anyone's radar. "I think you will have a very tough time finding any economists who agree with Turner on this," says Tsur Somerville of UBC."

But he could be right. Or he could be wrong. Don't know yet, do we?

So, here's what I know:

· People were still lining up to buy condo's in Toronto last week I'm not sure that's a good thing though.

· I tried to book appointments on Monday to show five different properties on Friday. By Thursday, 4 of the 5 were sold and two had competing offers in place.

· The number of residential sales in the Georgian Triangle from January 1st to March 14th this year is up 9.2% over the same period last year AND, the average sale price of those is up 8%.

Here's what I think:

· I would not be surprised if we see some correction in the market over the next 18 months or so. After-all, how could we endure the endless negative press let alone impacts of the high dollar and the U.S. fall-out right next door?

· I think any correction is more likely to be a slowing of sales volume rather than a decline in prices and, for some sectors, it may not be noticeable at all

· There is a distinct possibility that if there is a correction, we could be exempt. Yes, that's what I said. Did you know that even in the beleaguered U.S., there are areas where real estate prices have continued to climb? Just asks the folks in Manhattan, San Francisco, Grand Forks or Salem, Oregon. There is significant wealth (read: staying power) here in the Collingwood - Blue Mountain area that will provide stability when times get challenging.

Yup, so far, I still stand by my predictions for the year in Collingwood - Blue Mountain and nothing has happened to rock that boat. Like Garth, I like to predict. If he's right by the end of the year, I'll buy him a beer and if I'm right, well, Garth - you owe me a mention in your next book. Okay, well, at least a glass of wine.