The single-largest drag on our economy is housing. The biggest kitchen-table concern is underemployment and unemployment. The two are connected as homeowners’ ability to buy homes is out of reach with the worst-in-our-lifetime employment picture. So the news from the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) on Friday was more than welcome. A quarter million net private sector jobs created in the month was fantastic.

Improvement of unemployment to 8.3% is also good. Or is it? The out-of-work number is 12.7 million people. That is as large as the population of Pennsylvania, every man, woman and child in Pittsburgh and Philadelphia and everywhere in between. There was much celebrating going on Friday as the unemployment figure was announced. I saw claims of a 40-48 state sweep by President Obama in 2012 based on the improved number.

What? Yes, 8.3% is good compared to 9.1% where we were. Yes, 8.3% is good compared to the 8.5% economists predicted. But how does it feel to you? Do you see marked improvement in your neighborhood? Does it feel like we are moving out of the Great Recession? Let’s look at some numbers and what you will be hearing about for the next month until the BLS provides more numbers.

Let’s detail some percentages: 8.3%, 15.1%, 11.0%, 8.0%. Some numbers 1,177,000; 1,685,000; and another percentage 63.7%. These are numbers you will need to know to make heads or tails of the spins you will hear for the next number of weeks.

8.3%: January Unemployment published by the BLS after their monthly phone survey. One of the questions they ask is “Did you apply for a job during the time period between x and y?” If the answer is “No.” and you aren’t currently employed, you are considered not looking and not part of the employment work force. Remember that 8.3% is 12.7M people out of the153M who are either working or still looking/applying for work.

15.1%: This is the “Underemployed” or “U-6” number and takes into account those who are working part-time (PT) but want to be working full-time (FT). It also estimates those who are “marginally attached to the Labor Force”, i.e. would start looking again as soon as they can.

This 15.1% has improved from 17.3% a year ago and is still very high. The implication is that as the economy improves there are that many million more jobs needed to absorb the people looking. Remember that the net working population growth each month is approx 140,000. If only 127,000 jobs are created in a month, the Unemployment stays flat. The 8.8M jobs lost between January 2008 and February 2010 has been devastating.

To get back to healthy, we not only need to get a significant number of the Unemployed back to work, but also many of the ~3M PT employed who are wanting FT employment, plus many of the millions who have given up looking and are not part of the 8.3% and for some not even part of the 15.1%. Watch for OFA to use the chart up on the left with the down bars in red, blamed on Bush and the up bars in green attributed to the policies of this administration.

11.0%: today’s number of January Unemployed if the number of 2008 employees were all still in the game, at least looking for employment. Don't confuse this. Today's 8.3% is lower because so many are no longer looking. If you add those dropouts back in, as if they were still looking, the number would be 11% today.

8.0%: You will hear republican candidates calling out Pres. Obama for the 8.0% bright line he drew in the sand, an unemployment number he claimed when he touted the stimulus projects. You will hear Pres. Obama and Whitehouse Press Sec’y Jay Carney rebutting that his policies have led to the recovery from the worst part of the downturn (a downturn caused by the failed policies of his predecessor, btw.) You decide. Is it feeling like a recovery? Some will say yes and others will say no.

1,177,000 is the adjustment in January to the Labor Force. An adjustment was made to accommodate the 2010 census numbers and in the process it was determined that this many additional people are not in the workforce and not looking for work.

1,685,000 is the number added to the entire population of working age based on the 2010 census. Of this number 508,000 have found work or are looking and 1.2M are not in the Labor Force. Note that this number of people did not drop out in the month of January as some have reported, but are part to a catch up adjustment. There is some debate around the 1.2M number, but the truth still is that these need to be included in the millions who will need work if we are to bring the unemployment rate back to a healthy figure (closer to 5%).

63.7% is the participation percentage, meaning what percentage of the working-age* population is participating in the work force, either FT or PT employed. This number at 63.7% is down from a year ago at 64.2% and dropped 0.3 pts in January because of the adjustments just mentioned. The number has not been this low since 1984 and to some, this is the most concerning statistic. Will those long-term out of work be able to reengage in the workforce? BTW, *the working population is considered all 16 and up who are not on active duty or in an elderly, mental, or penal institution. That civilian worker number in January is 242M.

Another bright point from the BLS Jobs Report is that the unemployment rate amongst Iraq and Afghanistan Vets fell from 13.1 to 9.3%, still not low enough, but a nice movement in the right direction.

The impact on mortgage rates Friday was about an 1/8th of a percent. The market during the day today has already recovered more than half of that decrease. The very small net reaction in the market is an indicator that the bond buyers are not seeing this Unemployment “improvement” in the same light as the Whitehouse. The Fed is sticking by thei predictions last week that Unemployment will be between 8.2 and 8.5% on the year.

These days, more than ever, experience counts. We at Signet have spent our careers providing the best programs and the best customer service. You, your friends and clients deserve the best. We enjoy making exceptional real estate deals happen. Please let us call your friends and clients who could use expert advice. We are grateful to work with you.

Now that we’ve welcomed in 2012, it’s a good time to look back and see how the various Central Oregon real estate markets fared in 2011.

To get a sense of how each compared to the previous two years and to each other, I charted the progress (or lack thereof, in a few instances) of the Bend, Redmond and Sisters Single Family Residential (SFR) and Residential with Acreage (RW) segments in four general categories for 2009, 2010 and 2011.

I tracked the total number of sales for each year, along with the average price of homes sold, the total volume of sales and the days on market (DOM), which is now paired with cumulative days on market (CDOM).

Of the three primary markets, Sisters made the most overall progress (especially with regard to its RW listings). On the other hand, Bend’s SFR market stumbled a bit, while its RW listings saw a slight improvement. Redmond also had mixed results –- with fewer sales and a lower sales price among its SFR listings but notable improvement among its RW listings.

Here’s a more detailed overview of how each area fared:

Bend
Sales activity in Bend saw little change from 2010 to 2011. Its SFR sales actually decreased slightly: down from 1,690 in 2010 to 1,689 in 2011 (although higher than 2009’s 1,564 sales). However, with 255 sales, Bend’s RW segment did see an increase in 2011, compared to 213 sales in 2010 and 155 sales in 2009.

When it came to the price of the listings sold, both SFR and RW listings saw a decrease. In 2011, the average sales price of SFR listings was $238,099, compared to $244,680 in 2010 and $265,831 in 2009. The average price of RW listings sold in 2011 was $354,981, compared to $386,670 in 2010 and $450,998 in 2009.

In terms of sales volume, Bend’s SFR listings saw a decrease, while RW listings saw an increase. For 2011, the total sales amount for SFR listings sold was $402,149,646, compared to $413,509,736 in 2010 and $415,759,990 in 2009. Meanwhile, the total sales amount for RW listings was $90,520,039, compared to $82,360,628 in 2010 and $69,904,659 in 2009.

As for days on market, there were only slight shifts in both segments for 2011 (one saw a slight increase in DOM: the other saw a slight increase in CDOM), but both have had a significant reduction since 2009. In 2011, SFR listings had an average of 138/154, compared to 143/180 in 2010 and 163/213 in 2009. In 2011, RW listings had an average of 171/205, compared to 172/243 in 2010 and 185/261 in 2009.

Redmond
Like Bend, Redmond saw a decrease in the number of SFR sales for 2011, although its decrease was more substantial. In 2011, there were 658 SFR sales, compared to 727 in 2010 and 634 in 2009. RW sales, on the other hand, were up substantially (also like Bend). In 2011, there were 84 RW sales, compared to 64 sales in 2010 and 56 sales in 2009.

When it comes to the average sales price of homes sold, SFR listings saw a decrease, while RW listings actually saw an increase (a rare thing, these days). In 2011, the average sales price of an SFR listing sold was $137,203, compared to $142,425 in 2010 an $170,515 in 2009. The average price of an RW listing, on the other hand, was $256,629, compared to $249,069 in 2010 and $346,799 in 2009.

Not surprisingly, overall sales volume for SFR listings was also down. In 2011, the total amount for SFR listings sold was $90,279,764, compared to $103,542,942 in 2010 and $108,106,428 in 2009.

As for days on market, there was little change in SFR listings but a fairly dramatic increase among RW listings. In 2011, SFR listings saw 148/181, compared to 135/186 in 2010 and 158/221 in 2009. In 2011, RW listing saw 225/274, compared to 161/220 in 2010 and 202/328 in 2009.

Sisters
Both SFR and RW listings saw an increase in the number of sales for the past three years. In 2011, there were 95 SFR sales, compared to 88 sales in 2010 and 70 sales in 2009. There were 63 RW sales in 2011, compared to 54 sales in 2010 and 26 sales in 2009.

When it came to the average sales price of homes sold, both SFR and RW listings saw a decrease in 2011. SFR listings sold for an average of $248,019 in 2011, compared to $295,488 in 2010 and $372,483 in 2009.

In terms of sales volume, SFR listings saw a decrease while RW listings saw an increase (and a significant improvement since 2009). The total amount of SFR sales for 2011 was $23,561,771, compared to $26,002,979 for 2010 and $26,073,795 for 2009. The total amount of RW sales for 2011 was $28,836,950, compared to $25,841,375 in 2010 and $10,471,900 in 2009. The total volume was actually higher than for SFR sales, which was not the case for Bend or Redmond.

As for days on market, SFR listings sat on the market longer in 2011, with an average of 228/264, compared to 188/247 in 2010 and 222/245 in 2009. On the other hand, RW listings saw less time on the market, with 215/288 in 2011, compared to 237/292 in 2010 and 169/228 in 2009.

Want to learn more about what's happening with the Bend, Redmond or Sisters real estate markets today? Then don't hesitate to call me at 541-480-0987 or email me. I'd be glad to assist you whether you're buying or selling real estate in Central Oregon.

About the Author:
Lisa Broadwater, GRI, CDPE is a Central Oregon-based real estate professional who specializes in listing and selling homes, especially in Sisters, Tumalo, Redmond and Bend. If you'd like to learn more about Central Oregon, please visit www.CentralOregonHome4You.com.

Jazzing up the World of Biscotti. It's no secret, my friends know that I'm a chocolate lover. And when one of my friends recently surprised me with a basket full of coffee and chocolate treats, I discovered a new love for biscotti. Can you say Yummy?!

In my basket full of treats was a package of german chocolate biscotti made in Oregon by a company called Be-Bop Biscotti. The company is located in Bend Oregon and they have an eye-catching website with a cool marketing message... 'We're jazzing up the world of biscotti, infusing fresh life into an old standard.' It doesn't take much to engage my taste buds when chocolate is involved. Did I say Yummy?!

Be-Bop Biscotti certainly jazzed up my life today! Have you had your biscotti?

Broken Top

Broken Top, on Bend’s favored westside, has for almost two decades been considered one of Oregon’s premier golf communities.

Custom homes at Broken Top line the fairways of the championship 18 hole track that meanders through the community. The course, designed by Tom Weiskopf, is a classic resort course with no adjoining fairways.

Broken Top Club

Centerpiece of the community is the stunning 24,000 square foot clubhouse, solemnly standing as a sentinel over a tule bordered lake.

Broken Top is conveniently located just minutes from schools (Summit HS, Cascade, High Lakes) and downtown; it’s also on the road to Mt. Bachelor.

Homes in Broken Top

There are a full range of homes in Broken Top . . . large custom estate homes, casual (maintenance free) patio-style homes in Fall Creek, classic golf course townhomes at Whisper Ridge, Tyrion Sky, Bridge Creek, and Painted Ridge.

Here are just a few of the custom choices in Broken Top . . . just click on the thumbnail to see details–

$5,900,000 61654 Belmore Loop Bend, OR 97702 Listing #: 2910315	$2,250,000 61535 Tam McArthur Loop Bend, OR 97702 Listing #: 201200081	$1,495,000 Bend, OR 97702 Listing #: 201109001
$1,495,000 18750 MacAlpine Loop Bend, OR 97702 Listing #: 201010155	$1,400,000 19378 Rim Lake Ct Bend, OR 97702 Listing #: 201102520	$1,095,000 61874 Bunker Hill Ct Bend, OR 97702 Listing #: 201106159
$800,000 61858 Bunker Hill Ct Bend, OR 97702 Listing #: 201106594	$799,900 Bend, OR 97702 Listing #: 201106665	$799,000 19522 Green Lakes Loop Bend, OR 97702 Listing #: 201109018
$789,000 Bend, OR 97702 Listing #: 201107696	$784,900 19502 Green Lakes Loop Bend, OR 97702 Listing #: 201104488	$669,900 61607 Tam McArthur Loop Bend, OR 97702 Listing #: 201108402
$650,000 61613 Tam McArthur Loop Bend, OR 97702 Listing #: 201200556	$650,000 19340 Soda Springs Dr Bend, OR 97702 Listing #: 201104436	$649,000 Bend, OR 97702 Listing #: 201105994

See all homes presently for sale in Broken Top

Check out our map search of homes in Broken Top

The FOMC released its announcement this morning at 9:30 eastern. Two very important indications of what the FOMC will do are found in the statement released to the press.

1. They anticipate keeping the “exceptionally low fed funds rate at least through late 2014″. (Had previously been “into late 2013″, so this is favorable to interest rates.)

2. They have announced extending their program to bolster long-term security holdings.

The impact to the rates was precipitous. Check out this chart to see how the bellwether 10-yr Treasury dropped 14 bps immediately after the announcement.

Mortgage rates continue to improve.