Arlington, TX

Another classic Yogi Berra-ism is, "I never said most of the things I said." Luckily, the Fed can't make the same claim. This coming Tuesday, the "Meeting Minutes" or open commentary of the Fed's last monetary policy meeting will be released to the public. If there are inflammatory comments, the market could respond quickly. Go to http://www.tombrewerjr.com/for more information.

Remember, when Bond prices move higher, home loan rates move lower. And as you can see in the chart below, Bonds have rebounded higher off of their key 50-day moving average support level, and are moving back toward the upper portion of their current trading range. This means if Bond prices continue to move toward the upper boundary of the range, we could see home loan rates improve slightly.

"I KNEW THE RECORD WOULD STAND UNTIL IT WAS BROKEN." ~ Yogi Berra A record was broken on the job front last Friday as the Labor Department reported a much worse than expected loss of 80,000 jobs in March - the greatest jobs loss reported in five years. In addition, revisions to both January and February's Jobs Report delivered an additional loss of 67,000 jobs - that's on top of the previously reported loss of 85,000 jobs for that two-month period. Go to http://www.tombrewerjr.com/for more information.

And...the story might be even a bit gloomier than it already appears. The Labor Department uses a lot of averaging to help it come up with its numbers more quickly, but this practice can skew the current picture significantly. Think of it this way - and because it's now baseball season, here's a Baseball analogy - let's say that mid-way through the season, a red-hot hitter with a batting average of 340 declines into a bad slump for several weeks. While he now can't even hit a basketball thrown underhand to him, his average - while lower to 300 - is still very strong due to his previous hot performance. So someone looking at just the statistics may think that this batter is still absolutely terrific, but he is really someone the fans are booing as he approaches the plate. This is not very different from current numbers being reported by the Labor Department - previous averaging is likely causing an understating of the ACTUAL number of job losses...which somewhat masks how b ad the job market really is.

This bleak Jobs Report greatly boosts the odds of not only a first-quarter recession, but perhaps a worse economic downturn than many economists fear. The Federal Reserve may respond to this increasing trend in job losses with additional interest rate cuts when they next meet to determine monetary policy on April 30 and June 25. As we've seen in the past though, such rate cuts do not translate into lower long-term rates for mortgages, so there is no better time than right now to refinance an existing mortgage or to structure a new one. Let's work together to make sure your current financing is a home run!

A huge debate seems to exist here between Realtors and Mortgage Brokers on this topic. I have been a Realtor for 12 years and a Mortgage Broker for 12 years so I believe I can clear this up. The value of your home is solely based on appraised value by the lender. Be careful of the competitve market analysis as it does not take into account all of the appraisal factors in determining market value. The analysis is also affected by human entry and error by individuals that are qualified to sell your house but unfortunately with the changes in the mortgage markets might not be able to price it to sell and close!!

In my honest opinion a great Realtor will always consult a great appraiser on value to be as accurate as possible for their clients. Unfortunately there is always somebody telling you they can sell your house for more so "Seller Beware". Please go to http://www.tombrewerjr.com/for more information.

The Bond market will gravitate towards news from the job market this week, with employment information due to arrive on Wednesday and Friday. Although Wednesday's ADP Employment Report has a history of being somewhat unreliable in predicting the "official" Jobs Report number, Bond traders will still try to use it to predict what the Department of Labor's report will show on Friday. And this week, the estimates are negative - meaning no job creations are expected, net job losses are what is anticipated - so any positive reads could be good news for Stocks, but bad news for Bonds and home loan rates. So...surprise, surprise...more volatility for Bonds and home loan rates is likely in store, between the ADP Report release on Wednesday, and the arrival of the Jobs Report on Friday morning. Please go to http://www.tombrewerjr.com/for more information.

Remembering that when Bond prices move higher, home loan rates move lower - you can see that the chart below shows some good news. The black line indicates a "floor of support" created by the Bond's 50-day Moving Average - and you can see that the floor is helping Bonds hold their present levels, and if the floor holds, could potentially help them improve even more.

While Bonds and home loan rates could react to early week news of housing and manufacturing, the employment news will definitely be the talk of the week, and any surprises will likely cause a swift reaction.

"NO GREAT DISCOVERY WAS EVER MADE WITHOUT A BOLD GUESS." Isaac Newton But even the great mind of Isaac Newton might not have guessed that Bonds and home loan rates would continue on such a volatile course. But let's get bold, and discover what caused the latest rock and roll action in the financial markets, and take a look at what the coming week might have in store.

Forces that effect Mansfield , Arlington and Fort worth Real Estate were certainly at work to keep the financial markets from being at rest, starting bright and early on Monday morning. The headlines brought a quick shot in the arm for Stocks, as beleaguered Bear Stearns is now expected to see $10 per share in their buyout, rather than the previously expected $2 per share. Great news for the troubled financial sector at large, but Bonds got battered hard, as money flowed out of Bonds and into Stocks - causing home loan rates to rise.

But as the week progressed, some dismal news played out, including a plunge in Consumer Confidence and mixed news on the housing market, which pulled the money right back out of Stocks, and into the safe haven of Bonds...helping home loan rates improve again. But like Newton's famous third law of motion, "every action has an equal and opposite reaction" - Bonds and home loan rates changed course again, on better than expected unemployment claims on Thursday. Please go to http://www.tombrewerjr.com/for more information.

Then Friday brought the discovery that Core inflation is perhaps not as hot as previously thought. The highly watched year-over-year core inflation rate was reported at just 2%, as measured by the Fed's favored Personal Consumption Expenditure Index (PCE), and within the bounds of what the Fed would like to see for core inflation. Since inflation is the arch enemy of fixed return Bonds and home loan rates...this news was good indeed, and caused home loan rates to improve once again. Once the dust settled for the week, home loan rates ended up near where they began, before their weekly roller coaster ride.

WHILE THE MARKETS REMAIN HIGHLY VOLATILE AND UNCERTAIN, AT LEAST TWO THINGS IN LIFE ARE CERTAIN - DEATH AND TAXES. BUT THIS YEAR, SOME GOOD NEWS FOR A CHANGE AT TAX TIME, WITH THE REBATE CHECKS MANY HAVE IN STORE. WANT TO BE CERTAIN ABOUT WHEN TO EXPECT YOURS...AND HOW MUCH IT MIGHT BE? DON'T MISS THIS WEEK'S MORTGAGE MARKET VIEW!