Alberta

The signs increasingly indicate Canada will be out of recession by the end of the year, if not slightly sooner, even though consumers remain wary and unemployment is ticking higher, new data show.

Two separate economic indexes that gauge the conditions that create economic growth rose Tuesday, suggesting the economy was beginning to heal and growth would resume before the end of the year. However, without consumers on board, that growth is expected to grind along slowly.

The Desjardins Leading Index rose for a second consecutive month in May, to be up 1.1% after a 0.5% rise in April.

"If the DLI continues to rise this summer, the current cycle's trough could be reached as of the fall, allowing a real recovery to materialize after that," said Hélène Bégin, a senior economist at Desjardins.

All components of the index, with the exception of consumption, rose in the month. The financial component became positive, the export component stabilized and the housing group posted a large increase. Despite these improvements, consumers continue to retrench amid the uncertain employment outlook.

Ms. Bégin said the need to rebuild savings and a rising number of bankruptcies, which are up 15% since the start of the year, would weigh on consumption for the remainder of the year.

"A strong comeback is unlikely as households are in a fragile financial situation," she said. "Consumption's coming recovery could be fairly moderate and it will set the tone for the economic recovery overall."

Meanwhile, the Ivey Purchasing Managers Index, an indicator of business activity, jumped more than 20% to 58.2 in June. A reading above 50 indicates an increase in activity. The employment index for June remained at 50, while supplier deliveries rose to 51.9 and prices increased to 60.4. Inventories was the only component to register a decline in activity, slipping to 43.

The improvement in the index was a welcome sign. However, Millan Mulraine, an economics strategist at TD Securities, noted that activity remained weak, particularly when adjusted for seasonal changed. He said headline PMI rose a more modest 11% to 48.4 in May once seasonally adjusted.

"On the whole, with the headline index on a seasonally adjusted basis remaining below the all-important 50-threshold, it suggests that the Canadian economy is continuing to contract, even though at a diminishing pace," he said.

Building permit figures released Tuesday by Statistics Canada were also better than expected and suggested a rise in construction activity in the coming months. The number of building permits issued in May rose a strong 14.8% from the previous month and pushed the value of permits above the $5-billion mark for the first time since October 2008.

Alia McMullen, Financial Post

Quick June 2009 Calgary AB Market Statistics:
Calgary Condo inventory is down for the fifth consecutive month, while sales rise bringing our absorption rate to the bottom of a balanced market.  Calgary's condo sales have been on the rise for 7 months, from 208 condo sales in December 2008 to 738 condo sales in June 2009.  Statistically it look like the buyer's market is coming to an end and if these trends continue we may see seller gaining a little more control before the fall slowdown.  Calgary's median condo sale price is $265,500 the highest it's been since October 2008.  The June 2009 sale price range for condos in Calgary was between $117,000 and $1,100,000 being the highest price condo sold in June 2009.

The real estate market in Calgary has changed significantly in the past few months. We went from having an over-supply of homes where sellers waited endlessly for offers, to a brand new market where, in certain price ranges, multiple offers on the same home are becoming more and more common every day.

Here's the latest News Release from the Calgary Real Estate Board...

Calgary, July 2, 2009 - The number of single family homes and condos sold in June in Calgary metro are both up from the same time a year ago.

MLS^® sales activity of single family Calgary metro homes was 1,837 in the month of June 2009, showing an increase of 16 per cent from 1,584 sales in May 2009, according to figures released by the Calgary Real Estate Board (CREB®). This is the sixth consecutive month home sales have increased in Calgary Metro. This was an increase of 28 per cent from June 2008, when single family home sales were 1,439. The number of condominium sales for the month of June 2009 was 738, an increase of 13 per cent from the 653 condominium transactions recorded in May 2009, and an increase of 33 per cent from June 2008, when 556 condominiums changed hands.

"This is the third consecutive month we are seeing our inventory return to a balanced market," says Bonnie Wegerich, President of the Calgary Real Estate Board. "Our inventory turnover for single family homes and condos in metro Calgary is now just over two months. This is a remarkable shift from the nearly 11 months of inventory we saw in January of this year."

"A rise in demand along with fewer listings has helped bring supply in balance with demand," says Wegerich. "Affordable prices, low interest rates and pent-up demand continue to fuel this gradual rebound. Should this trend continue, I think we can confidently say the bottom of the market has come and gone before many buyers had a chance to notice."

The average price of a single family Calgary metro home in June 2009 was $447,142, showing an increase of 2 per cent from May 2009, when the average price was $436,427, and showing a decrease of 6 per cent from June 2008, when the average price was $473,774. The average price of a Calgary metro condominium was $285,595 showing a 4 per cent increase from May 2009, when the average price was $275,212 and a decrease of 9 per cent over last year, when the average price was $315,042. Average price information can be useful in establishing trends over time, but does not indicate actual prices in centres comprised of widely divergent neighbourhoods, or account for price differentials between geographical areas.

"It is not the buyer's market we saw in January of this year. As our inventory trends lower, choice and selection will decrease. Nonetheless, there are still great opportunities out there for buyers," says Wegerich.

"The good news is pricing remains relatively affordable," says Wegerich. "We are not liable to see significant price gains in 2009, but more likely a gradual and steady improvement in home values."

Single family Calgary metro new listings added for the month of June totaled 2,244, no change from May 2009 when 2,235 new listings were added, but showing a decrease of 19 per cent from June 2008, when 2,787 new listings came to the market. Calgary metro condominium new listings added in June 2009 were 927, down 7 per cent from May 2009, when the MLS^® saw 998 condo listings coming to the market. This is a decrease of 25 per cent from June 2008, when condominium listings were 1,234.

The median price of a single family Calgary metro home in June 2009 was $399,000, showing an increase of 2 per cent from May 2009, when the median price was $390,000, and down 2 per cent from June 2008, when the median price was $408,000. The median price of a condominium in June 2009 was $265,500, up 4 per cent from May 2009, when the median was $255,000, and down 6 per cent from June 2008, when the median price was $282,000. All Calgary metro MLS^® statistics include properties listed and sold only within Calgary's city limits. The median price is the price that is midway between the least expensive and most expensive home sold in an area during a given period of time. During that time, half the buyers bought homes that cost more than the median price and half bought homes for less than the median price.

"We are encouraged by this upward trend in sales but there are still some economic fundamentals needed before we will see a full recovery in the housing market," added Wegerich. "A rebound in employment and oil prices will have a significant impact on the housing market in Calgary-we expect this won't fully take effect until the beginning of 2010."

If you have any questions about the Calgary Real Estate Market, or would like to find Calgary Homes For Sale, visit www.yourhomeincalgary.com

Bernice Dubon

Royal LePage Solutions in Calgary Alberta

Alberta remains one of the lowest taxed juristictions in North America, as well as one of the few that charges no Provincial sales tax. There has been recent rumor that in order to combat the loss of resource revenue the Provincial Government would raise taxes to help offset this loss. Not going to happen. Alberta was one of the last places to feel any hint of the economic slow down and we will likely be the first to emerge from it again as an economic powerhouse.

The following is an excerpt from a recent CBC article regarding the possibility of increased taxes in Alberta. Read it and you will gain some insight as to why this area of the continent is still moving along and leaving the rest of the country and continent behind.

<begin article>

Ending speculation about possible tax hikes, Alberta Premier Ed Stelmach announced Tuesday the province is not increasing personal or corporate taxes to deal with Alberta's growing financial woes.

"As long as I'm premier of this province, there will be no tax increases .… No tax increases, period," Stelmach forcefully told reporters after a cabinet meeting in Calgary.

"So don't talk about them 'cause there won't be a sales tax and there won't be any tax increases, period. We're going to look at not only our budgets but the effectiveness of the programs and look to see how we can grow the pie by removing some of the barriers to investment."

The premier said he wants to send a clear signal to investors and to all Albertans that it's not going to get more expensive to live in the province.

'So just to close: cold beer, hot day, during very difficult economic times.'—Alberta Premier Ed Stelmach

Stelmach also said he's immediately rolling back the liquor tax increases that were introduced in the spring budget. That move will reduce government revenues by $180 million a year — and add to this year's deficit that had already been projected to reach almost $5 billion.

Stelmach said he was never comfortable with the April jump in liquor prices when the government markup was boosted by $1.30 for a dozen beer, 75 cents for a bottle of wine and $2.89 for a 750 ml bottle of spirits.

"It was something that I had a hard time agreeing with; it's been bothering me all that time," he admitted.

"We have to … continue to work to reduce the cost of doing business in this province. That's the way you build Alberta's future, and I tell you that Albertans expect confidence and stability in these very, very difficult economic times, and that is my focus," he said. "So just to close: cold beer, hot day, during very difficult economic times."

There are no plans to rescind the tobacco tax increases that were also implemented in April.

Here are a few of my favorite past articles from my Lethbridge real estate and mortgage blog you might have missed or wish to recommend them to a friend.

WANTED: Single Women: - Single women are a hot mortgage market
Common Financial Problems - Avoid these financial mistakes
Get Your Credit Score UP - Invaluable insight into your credit score
Mortgage Guidelines Get Tighter - Harder and harder to borrow money
Is Your Mortgage Company Out of Business in 2009? - What to do when your bank goes broke
What is wrong with MLS - Is your info being abused?
Survivor - Real Estate Edition - Let's vote a few more off the island

Robert May is a Realtor, as well as the broker and owner of Rainbow Realty of Lethbridge Alberta . He is also a licensed Lethbridge mortgage broker and financing expert with Canada First Mortgage of Calgary Alberta. He has been in the Lethbridge real estate industry since 1993 and offers full MLS real estate services to Lethbridge and surrounding area, as well as Lethbridge mortgage financing, mortgage refinancing , preapprovals, and Lethbridge heloc financing to Lethbridge and Southern Alberta. He can be found online at this link: mortgage broker Lethbridge

Let me share my 15 years experience in the local Lethbridge real estate and financing market with you! It is the first step towards making a profitable real estate decision.

Edmonton, July 3, 2009: At the mid-point of the year, the REALTORS® Association of Edmonton is confident that the local real estate market has regained stability. The 9,741 sales of residential properties sold through the Multiple Listing Service® in the first six months surpassed the six month year-to-date figure for last year (9,567) and residential sales in June set a new record for the month. Residential sales in June totalled 2,552 units which surpassed the 2007 record of 2,203 units sold and was the third best month for unit sales in MLS® System history.

“Buyer confidence, especially among first time buyers, was evident in Edmonton despite lingering economic concerns in other markets,” said Charlie Ponde, president of the REALTORS® Association of Edmonton. “When mortgage rates looked like they might start to rise, many potential buyers locked in lower mortgage rates and then went searching for a qualifying home.”

Listing activity slowed slightly from last month (down 0.03%) with 3,179 residential listings. The strong sales drove the sales to listing ratio to 80% from 68% last month. Prices continue to climb with one month increases of 0.6% for single family dwellings and 1% increases for condominiums. The average* SFD sold for $369,859 in June as compared to $367,672 in May or $351,870 on January 1. Condominiums sold for $247,071 on average in June; up from $244,734 in May and $234,286 at the start of the year. At the end of 2008 Q2, SFDs sold for $381,384 and condos sold for $262,365.

“Last year prices fell from the high point in March. This year prices have just continued to climb,” said Ponde. “Prices typically decline slightly in the second half of the year but the drop, if it occurs, will not be precipitous.”

The average days on market was 60 days or more early in the year but dropped to 49 in June; another indicator of buyer enthusiasm. At the end of June there were 6,785 residential properties active on the MLS® System (2.65 month supply at current sales volumes) which offers a wide range of choice for those eager buyers.

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Highlights of MLS® activity

¹. Residential includes SFD, condos and duplex/row houses.
². Single Family Dwelling
³. The middle figure in a list of all sales prices

* Average prices indicate market trends only. They do not reflect actual prices, which may vary.

Contact

The REALTORS® Association of Edmonton (Edmonton Real Estate Board), founded in 1927, is a professional association of Brokers and Associates in the greater Edmonton area. The Association administers the Multiple Listing Service®, provides professional education to its members and enforces a strict Code of Ethics and Standards of Business Practice. The Association also advertises property listings and publishes consumer information on the Internet at REALTOR.ca and ereb.com, as well as in the Real Estate Weekly and on their web site at rewedmonton.ca. REALTORS® support charities involving shelter and the homeless through the REALTORS® Community Foundation (RCF).