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With the the hint of warmer weather and a couple of dead cat bounces, market sentiment seems up. I'd say that for Edmonton real estate it is a combination of the increasingly lower prime rates; soon banks will be stuffing dollars into our pockets. And the cyclical
lift that spring/summer bring to home listings and sales.
Folks that have been waiting to buy are now cautiously dipping a toe or two testing the waters. Is it a good time to buy? Yes, of course it is - whenever you buy for cashflow in a fundamentally strong area, it is a good thing.
Did you know that CMHC has even backed mortgages for commercial multi-family apartment buildings for as low as 3.45% for a 35 year amortization?
Incredible... CASH FLOW CASH FLOW CASH FLOW!
It's great to see so many people taking action and adding additional properties to their portfolios. What an excellent time to build up cash flow and put another brick into the financial fortress.
“Formal education will make you a living; self-education will make you a fortune.” -Jim Rohn
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I was working on a graph that shows the number of properties sold in the Metro Edmonton area over the last 5 years. It clearly shows that May is normally our peak month for number of sales. The red line is this year's sales numbers. If the pattern continues we could see 2000 properties sold in May. That would put us on track with 2008 (blue line) and 2005 (yellow line) sales volume. 2006 (black line) and 2007 (green line) were unusual speculative years and should not be considered a "normal" number of sales.
The market has definitely been brisk. Our days on market average continues to fall (from the 70 days range to 58 days)and the list to sale's price ratio (ie how much the buyers are getting off the price) has been rising. These are two clear signals that the market is strengthening.
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How is the market? The short answer is improving! Last year (2008) we had an oversupply of listings (reached 11000 listings), only 4 out of 10 listed homes sold and prices were dropping in the 1% a month range. Thankfully that year is over!
The market demand (sales) have been steady this year. In April we sold 20 more homes than April of 2008 (1% increase). In contrast to the oversupply of listings in 2008 which caused the prices to fall, our listings are way down. New listings are down 1452 from last April (32% lower) Overall Inventory is down 3067 from last year (7539 versus 10606) or down 29% from 2008. The tightening supply has caused the prices to stop their freefall and it looks like we have moved from a buyer's market into a balanced market.
If you are curious what your home is worth today, please don't hesitate to call me at 780.499.5696.
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Here's the Edmonton Real Estate Board's review of the April stats for real estate sales. It gives an indication of the changed marketplace, but I don't think it tells the whole story. There's a lot of carry over into May, so watch for that market update to see a bigger sign of the change. - John Carle Edmonton, May 4, 2009: Sales activity on the Edmonton Multiple Listing Service® increased in April as compared to last month and April 2008. There were 3,019 residential properties listed in April with sales of 1,843 (up 33.6% from last month and 1.1% from April 2008). The average* price of single family homes in the Edmonton area was up 1% from March but, at $353,386, was still 8.5% below the last April price of $386,033. Condo prices were up 2.4% from last month to $236,020 while duplex/rowhouse prices were up 5.2% at $291,068. “Increased sales activity is evident in most real estate offices and some REALTORS® are reporting multiple offers on select properties,” said Charlie Ponde, president of the REALTORS® Association of Edmonton. “However, inventory is still relatively high and sellers should price their properties aggressively to attract offers.” The number of residential properties available through the MLS® System on April 30 was 7,539 – up 1% from last month but well below the glut in April last year when there were 10,606 properties available. The year-to-date sales-to-listing ratio is just 46% but the April S/L ratio of 61% is an indicator of increased activity. Average days-on-market in April was 51 – a number last seen in March 2008. “REALTORS® are optimistic about the Edmonton market,” said Ponde. “In-migration figures are positive, retail sales in Alberta are still higher than the rest of the country and unemployment figures are lower than other parts of Canada. First-time buyers are entering the market because of historically low interest rates and renovation incentives are encouraging move-up buyers to consider relocation.” Total sales through the MLS® System for the month were valued at $635 million with a year-to-date total of $1.75 billion. Total YTD sales value is down 23% from the same time last year but sales are off by just 16%. -30- Highlights of MLS® activity ¹. Residential includes SFD, condos and duplex/row houses. Contact
April 2009 activity
Record for the month*
% change from
April 2008
Total MLS® System sales this month
2,008
-1.90%
Value of total MLS® System sales - month
$635 million
-9.00%
Value of total MLS® System sales - year
$1.7 billion
-23.00%
Residential¹ sales this month
1,843
1.10%
Residential average price
$312,127
-7.40%
SFD² average selling price - month
$353,386
-8.50%
SFD median³ selling price
$337,000
-1.00%
Condo average selling price
$236,020
-8.10%
². Single Family Dwelling
³. The middle figure in a list of all sales prices
Charlie Ponde
REALTOR®, 2009 President
Bus: 780-460-8558
Ron Hutchinson
C.A.E., Executive V.P.
Bus: 780-453-9340
Jon Hall
C.A.E., Manager Communications
Bus: 780-453-9323
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Hi Mr. Carle.
I have a question for you. I stumbled upon a Edmonton Real Estate blog where you were giving advice to someone, and it sounded pretty reasonable, so I thought I would seek your advice also.
Currently I own a house in Spruce Grove. It is occupied by renters, and has been since I bought it in 2005. My question is whether or not it would be beneficial to purchase a second house at this time?
Mortgage rates are great apparently right now and as first time home owners there is apparently no better time. I say 1st time homeowner because my last house was purchased without a mortgage, so I think I still qualify for a first time homeowners plan.
Having said that however, it seems probable that the prices on houses will likely drop a bit further, and perhaps waiting is the ideal plan.
Well, that is my dilemma, if you can offer any advice, I would appreciate your opinion. Please email me at ……… if you find it convenient to reply.
Sincerely,
Kristy
Hi Kristy;
Thank you for your email! I’m glad to hear that you’re enjoying my blog at www.knock-knock.ca
Deciding if it’s time to buy a 2nd house is a personal decision, and heavily influenced by your own circumstances. So please keep that in mind when making a buying decision.
But in terms of the current Edmonton real estate market; I think it’s an excellent time to buy. Let’s face it, interest rates are ridiculous! That makes for some serious housing affordability. Likewise, prices are the lowest they’ve been in several years.
Ideally, people want to buy at the bottom of the market, when prices are the lowest. Well I think we’re darned close to the bottom. Sellers who have been trying to sell for 12+ months are very wiling to negotiate with you, there’s no doubt about it. Combine that with the current interest rates… well, you get the picture. The Edmonton real estate market is ripe for the pickings.
I hope this helps. Let me know if there’s anything I can do to be of help.
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