Real Estate Market Reports Blog Carnival

The second edition of the Real Estate Market Reports Blog Carnival is getting ready to be posted.

It is not too late for you to submit your entry into the carnival. The process is rather easy.

• Write an article about what is happening in your local real estate market (or use one you've already written).
• Click on this link to submit your article to the Real Estate Market Reports Blog Carnival
• Paste your permalink into the appropriate box
• Write a very brief description of your story
• Submit your entry

As simple as that and you will have a new fresh link back to your blog!

Special occasions occur in life at various times, and when they are acted upon in a timely manner, they can change our destiny. I believe now is one of those times. The “perfect storm” of economic events and global opinion has created a small window of opportunity for us regular people to take advantage of something normally only available to the financially advantaged.

Five Reasons Why Now Is The Time To Buy A Home

With everybody apparently declaring the great depression in housing underway, I have to report the contrary point of view. There are many things that are making this market look poised for a historic change and I think you might agree with me once you consider these five reasons why now is the time to buy a home.

1. Interest Rates Are Still Near Historical Lows

Interest rates have been low for so long that people believe that these are normal rates. This is Wrong. Today’s rates are low and will ABSOLUTELY rise in the future. With most of us more concerned about our monthly mortgage payment than we are about the cost of the home, interest rates are critical!

If you study the history of mortgage rates, you will see a cycle. Just as in any market, the money markets see the ups and the downs. But I think that we are in a period of time that is about to see extraordinary cycle adjustment (meaning rates rising very fast, very soon) for several reasons.

• The U.S. Dollar is weak and the Fed needs to make it stronger. Soon. Like maybe after an election…
• When the Fed raises its rates, the mortgage markets will follow this time
• The mortgage market is in a mess. Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac have been given more rope, but ultimately the mortgage industry is going to tighten lending requirements and will raise margins to sustain profits.
• When all markets try to correct, they unfailingly “over correct.” Think about it, we have seen a cycle of low interest rates for a very long time. How will the market correct this? You have to consider that the market is due for a very long cycle of high interest rates!

2. Prices Are Down Below Cost

The most important valuation factor in housing values (like any other commodity) is market opinion. The value of a home is based upon what somebody is willing to pay for it today, regardless of what it cost to produce that home.

However, the market generally seeks a value that is close to “cost.”

• If homes are selling for amounts greater than cost, then market suppliers bring more homes to the market to take advantage of the profit that exists.
• If homes are selling at or below cost, then market suppliers are no longer motivated to bring more homes to the market until the profit returns to the market.

We are now seeing homes that are on the market for sale, for prices that cannot be replicated ever again. We would need to see a collapse of the local economy and wages reduced by significant margins before we could produce homes at the prices being found in our market today. While this is not true for the highest price ranges, it definitely is true at and above the median price point (and certainly below the median price point).

3. Short Sale Opportunities Are Booming

This is one element of the opportunity window that many home buyers do not understand. While the purpose of this article is to discuss the opportunity (not to explain the short sale process like we have done in other articles), the key here is to understand why short sales are such great opportunities for buyers that can make a quick decision and then have the patience to go through a long closing cycle.

• Short sales give patient buyers huge opportunities due to the indifference of many sellers in a short sale position. They have to get rid of their home and they will not receive any money at closing. Don’t you think they’ll sign just about any offer (there’s nothing in it for them either way, right?)?
• The lack of coordination of the banks is staggering right now. With so many loans in default, they cannot handle the scores of loans they are trying to resolve. A patient buyer who makes a wise offer can get a home that will be an instant asset.

4. Tallahassee Is Growing - Ultimately We Need More Homes

I have read reports that say Tallahassee has grown twice as fast in 2008 than we normally do. So what does this mean? It means that whether that growth is people renting homes in Tallahassee or people buying homes in Tallahassee, more housing will be needed. If we build homes at a slower rate than our growth, I believe it is natural to assume that we will have, at some point, a shortage of homes. This is all part of the natural housing cycle, supply and demand. Think how smart you’ll feel in ten years when you own a home in-town in Tallahassee, and other people have to drive thirty miles to find a home that a typical family can afford.

5. The Media And The Experts Are Now All Negative On Housing

All the wisest investors in history have always been contrarians. If everybody is saying you need to buy, they sell. If everybody is saying you need to sell, they buy. If the markets are mixed, the keep their hands in their pockets and only take advantage of special opportunities.

In 2008, we have seen everybody jump on board the panic train. Prices have plummeted below cost in many cases and inventory levels make it a ripe time for buyers to pick out a special house to hold on to for many years. Are you going to be a lemming and follow the tail of the herd or are you going to seize the day (Carpe Diem for Mrs. Hall, my high school Latin Teacher)?

Home Ownership In America Is Still Near An All-time High

More Americans own their homes today than ever before (plus or minus the last two years). I think this is going to change. More people are going to be forced to rent due to the increased tightening of the mortgage markets. Rents will rise dramatically in the future due to increased demand for rental properties as well as increased costs of money, sticks, bricks, and labor. Nobody is going to be able to live cheap (except those who are wise enough to buy today and lock into low interest rates).

So, what does the prudent buyer do right now?

• Consult with a successful, intelligent, blogging real estate broker
• Consult with a successful, intelligent, blogging mortgage broker to determine capabilities
• Review all options with real estate broker and identify potential windfall opportunities in the market
• Subscribe to the Tallahassee Real Estate Blog to stay abreast of more sage wisdom

As a reminder for those who subscribe to the Tallahassee Real Estate Blog by email, some embedded pictures and videos might not be appearing in your email and you might need to click the title header to go to your browser where all will be visible.

Keep checking out the Tallahassee Real Estate Blog every day for updates that include charts, graphs, and analysis of the Tallahassee real estate market.

If you like this Article then please subscribe to my blog through a full RSS feed, or you can . You will be able to stay informed about the happenings in the Tallahassee Real Estate Market. You can also subscribe to this blog and have it delivered by Email.

Joe Manausa is a real estate investor and the Broker and Co-Owner of Century 21 First Realty. He can be reached via e-mail through the Tallahassee Real Estate Website or catch his latest writings on the Tallahassee Florida Real Estate Blog , or by calling (850) 386-2001.

While there has been much written in the newspaper and on the internet about national home sales, coverage of the specifics of home sales in Tallahassee has been varied and sporadic at best. But there is something that every Tallahassee home owner should know.

Home Sales In Tallahassee Are Down

Sure, the number of homes selling in Tallahassee right now is at the lowest measured number in over 17 years. But I am finding an interesting trend beginning to surface.

Homeowners In Tallahassee See Improving Success In Selling Their Home

At the beginning of 2008, I predicted roughly 34% - 38% of the homes listed for sale in Tallahassee would actually sell. It turns out that this prediction was spot-on accurate. Just to clarify for those of you who haven’t had your first cup of coffee yet, 1 out of 3 homeowners with a home to sell will succeed in selling their home this year, while 2 out of 3 homeowners with a home on the market will fail to sell their home in 2008. In a word, OUCH! What other industry has set customer service standards at 1 in 3 successful (not necessarily satisfied)?

But check out this graph of home sales versus homes listed in Tallahassee (click to enlarge):

This is a graph of the trend of homes sold versus the homes listed (homes being brought onto the market for sale) in the Tallahassee real estate market. The long-term trend (for now, my longest measured period is 180 days) is at 39% successful, while the short-term trend (30 days) is at 49%. The short-term trend is pulling the long-term trend up!

It Is Not About Percentages, You Can Sell Your Home In Tallahassee

Here is a point I often fail to make when I’m sharing market data with our readers. While 39% of homeowners with a home to sell in Tallahassee are succeeding right now, I can guarantee a home sale to any homeowner who follows our guidance. It is not hard to sell a home in Tallahassee right now. Over 300 homes are being sold each month! You have to wonder what the successful home sellers are doing to sell their home that the 61% who fail to sell are not doing?

It’s Real Estate, Not Rocket Science

Sit down and talk to a real estate brokerage company with the experience that only comes through working through numerous market cycles. The ones who are branded and have experienced this before can lead you to success right now.

As a reminder for those who subscribe to the Tallahassee Real Estate Blog by email, some embedded pictures and videos might not be appearing in your email and you might need to click the title header to go to your browser where all will be visible.

Keep checking out the Tallahassee Real Estate Blog every day for updates that include charts, graphs, and analysis of the Tallahassee real estate market.

If you like this Article then please subscribe to my blog through a full RSS feed, or you can . You will be able to stay informed about the happenings in the Tallahassee Real Estate Market. You can also subscribe to this blog and have it delivered by Email.

Joe Manausa is a real estate investor and the Broker and Co-Owner of Century 21 First Realty. He can be reached via e-mail through the Tallahassee Real Estate Website or catch his latest writings on the Tallahassee Florida Real Estate Blog , or by calling (850) 386-2001.

Have you ever wondered why two separate bloggers, both with excellent writing skills and subject matter expertise, can end up with completely different blogs? While both might be excellent reads, one can end up with a very large following of commenting-crazy readers, while the other struggles to get visitors to the blog at all.

What Causes People To Traffic Your Real Estate Blog

Content is King, do doubt about it. But if nobody knows that the content exists, then perhaps something else is important too!

Real Estate Blogs Must Be Marketed To Maximize Exposure

Just like marketing homes in real estate allows real estate professionals to reach out to prospective buyers and sellers, marketing our blogs allow us Rainers to reach out to real estate blog-seeking consumers.

One Simple Way To Market Your Real Estate Blog

One simple way to market your real estate blog is to post links on other blogs that point back to your Active Rain blog. A simple way to do that is to participate in a real estate blog carnival.

You might have seen the following two posts about the inaugural Real Estate Market Reports Blog Carnival, and I want to report that 13 submissions were made and they all received "Do Follow" links back to their web sites.

• Want Some Links To Your Blog?
• Give Me 5 Minutes - And I'll Give You Traffic To Your Blog

Inaugural Real Estate Market Reports Blog Carnival

In case you missed it, you can check out the Inaugural Real Estate Market Reports Blog Carnival. Click through to those submitting articles and see the benefit of being involved.

Real Estate Market Reports Blog Carnival - 2nd Edition

Well, the second Real Estate Market Reports Blog Carnival will be hitting the streets on Monday, August 18, 2008. Just submit a great real estate market report that you have written on this form and you will be included in the next one. Remember, more links will ultimately mean more traffic.

As a reminder for those who subscribe to the Tallahassee Real Estate Blog by email, some embedded pictures and videos might not be appearing in your email and you might need to click the title header to go to your browser where all will be visible.

Keep checking out the Tallahassee Real Estate Blog every day for updates that include charts, graphs, and analysis of the Tallahassee real estate market.

If you like this Article then please subscribe to my blog through a full RSS feed, or you can . You will be able to stay informed about the happenings in the Tallahassee Real Estate Market. You can also subscribe to this blog and have it delivered by Email.

Joe Manausa is a real estate investor and the Broker and Co-Owner of Century 21 First Realty. He can be reached via e-mail through the Tallahassee Real Estate Website or catch his latest writings on the Tallahassee Florida Real Estate Blog , or by calling (850) 386-2001.

Are You A Real Estate Professional With An Opinion On Your Local Market?

All you have to do is write a blog about your real estate market and submit your blog to the Real Estate Market Reports Blog Carnival. This will be published every week on Monday and will feature well written market reports by real estate bloggers from all over the world. You can submit as many entries as you like and as many blogs as you like.

What are the benefits of submitting to the Real Estate Reports Blog Carnival?

• Get Your Message Out to another market
• Increase your name brand
• Develop links back to your blog
• Increase SEO and traffic

This weeks Carnival will be hosted at the Real Estate Market Reports Web Site.

Additionally, if you would like to host the Real Estate Market Reports Blog Carnival, just let us know through the same link above.

Visit this previous Active Rain Blog for more Information.

Here is a housing inventory report, hot off the press for the Tallahassee housing market. The statistics are starting to point out that inventory levels seem to be falling for the first time in many years.This graph demonstrates the thirty day trend of housing inventory in Tallahassee. As we can see, the trend has been getting better and better during the entire measured period (Century 21 First Realty began measuing inventory trends in 2008).

Are You A Real Estate Professional With An Opinion On Your Local Market?

All you have to do is write a blog about your real estate market and submit your blog to the Real Estate Market Reports Blog Carnival. This will be published every week on Monday and will feature well written market reports by real estate bloggers from all over the world. You can submit as many entries as you like and as many blogs as you like.

Are You Interested In More About the Tallahassee real estate market?

If you like this Article then please subscribe to Real Estate Market Reports Blog through a full RSS feed. You will be able to stay informed about the happenings in the Tallahassee Real Estate Market. You can also subscribe to this blog and have it delivered by Email.

Joe Manausa is a real estate investor and the Broker and Co-Owner of Century 21 First Realty. He can be reached via e-mail through the Tallahassee Real Estate Website or catch his latest writings on the Tallahassee Florida Real Estate Blog , or by calling (850) 386-2001.

I always like to get questions from readers and I use these questions to guide the content of the Tallahassee Real Estate Blog. Yesterday I received a comment from a reader, “L. Blake,” who asked the kind of question that makes for a great blog article.

L. Blake wrote: “Thanks for all your hard work on the blogs and updates.

Re the blog that showed 37% long term/47% short term of homes were sold in Tallahassee, it would be great material for another blog to see:
1. how many of those sales were used homes
2. how many of those sales of used homes were SF detached
3. how long those houses were on the market

Thanks.”

I will be able to answer questions number 1. and number 2., but will not be addressing number 3. Number 3. is not a measurement that can be determined due to insufficient and corrupt data, even though it is reported by numerous real estate reporting sites. I went into length about the reasons for this in a previous blog article. Just know that not all MLS data is accurate, so reporting on bogus data only leads to bogus conclusions.

How Many Homes That Sold Were Resales?

The following graph shows the unit mix breakdown of homes that sold in Tallahassee. Since 1991, we can see that new construction sales represent, on average, 16% of the sales in the Tallahassee real estate market. Currently, we are trending to roughly 17% of the sales are new construction. With inventories at all time highs, I suspect we will continue to see new construction starts stay at low levels.

What Kind Of Homes Have Sold?

In the next graph shows Tallahassee home sales by property type. We can see that resale (used) Single Family detached homes dominate the market, typically average between 70-80% of all the sales in Tallahassee.

Average Price of Homes That Sold

The next graph shows that the average price of homes that have sold in Tallahassee has leveled off over the past 18 months, while unit sales have plummeted to levels not seen since 1991! Ouch. This issue has been addressed in the Tallahassee Real Estate Blog on numerous occasions. The leveling off of the average price of Tallahassee homes has been proven to be a misleading figure, as the current average home is a larger home than the average home of the past, so while the average price of a home in Tallahassee is roughly the same, individual home values have dropped. I believe this graph demonstrates proof that we will see continued price reductions over the next 6 to 12 months.

Unit Sales Trend Down 31% Since 2007

This next graph shows how sharply are unit sales have been falling. Each of the points on the blue line shows the one year trend in unit sales growth. Through June of this year, the unit sales are down 31% compared to last year. Through June of 2007, sales were down 24% compared to June of 2006. With all the reports showing that our population is growing, I expect this buyer trend to turn in a big way when some really positive news hits in the mainstream media.

As a reminder for those who subscribe to the Tallahassee Real Estate Blog by email, some embedded pictures and videos might not be appearing in your email and you might need to click the title header to go to your browser where all will be visible.

Keep checking out the Tallahassee Real Estate Blog every day for updates that include charts, graphs, and analysis of the Tallahassee real estate market.

If you like this Article then please subscribe to my blog through a full RSS feed, or you can . You will be able to stay informed about the happenings in the Tallahassee Real Estate Market. You can also subscribe to this blog and have it delivered by Email.

Joe Manausa is a real estate investor and the Broker and Co-Owner of Century 21 First Realty. He can be reached via e-mail through the Tallahassee Real Estate Website or catch his latest writings on the Tallahassee Florida Real Estate Blog , or by calling (850) 386-2001.

I decided to take a closer look at our daily real estate inventory analysis to see if I could find a trend that would make us smile a little in the Tallahassee real estate market, and I think I’ve found one that will excite even the loudest bear in the market.

Finding Out The Ratio Of Homes Selling

What if we tracked, over a long period of time, the daily number of homes sold in the real estate market and compared it with the number of homes coming onto the market. For example, if today 20 homes were listed “For Sale” in the MLS and 10 homes “Sold” today, we could say that for the very-very-very short-term, 50% of the homes sold. And if we tracked these figures over time, we could start to draw observations that would become increasingly more accurate as more time was evaluated.

So that is what I did. We have been tracking daily inventory changes in the Tallahassee real estate market since the beginning of the year. I applied the above scenario to the data, and the following chart shows something very exciting…..

This is the closest thing to “Great News” that we’ve seen since 2005. The trend for sales versus new inventory seems to be trending stronger. Unfortunately, with the data that we have compiled, 180 days (1/2 a year) is the long-term trend right now. I will feel much better when our long-term trend is one year or more.

As a reminder for those who subscribe to the Tallahassee Real Estate Blog by email, some embedded pictures and videos might not be appearing in your email and you might need to click the title header to go to your browser where all will be visible.

Keep checking out the Tallahassee Real Estate Blog every day for updates that include charts, graphs, and analysis of the Tallahassee real estate market.

If you like this Article then please subscribe to my blog through a full RSS feed, or you can . You will be able to stay informed about the happenings in the Tallahassee Real Estate Market. You can also subscribe to this blog and have it delivered by Email.

Joe Manausa is a real estate investor and the Broker and Co-Owner of Century 21 First Realty. He can be reached via e-mail through the Tallahassee Real Estate Website or catch his latest writings on the Tallahassee Florida Real Estate Blog , or by calling (850) 386-2001.

The MLS is chock full of information that Realtors should be tracking. We can tell what the market is doing, what is has done, and what it most likely will do in the future by paying attention to two main pieces of information:

1. Properties coming on to the market
2. Properties leaving the market

Inventory trends are so important that I track trends in the Tallahassee real estate market twice per week and post it on our Tallahassee Real Estate Web Site.

Now that another month has passed, it’s time for another update of our housing inventory in the Tallahassee Board of Realtors Multiple Listing Service (MLS) which covers homes in Leon County, Wakulla County, Gadsden County, Jefferson County, Franklin County and a category referred to as “Other Counties.”

Updated MLS Information

The purple line says it all. Inventories have hit the seventeen (17) months of supply range and look to continue climbing in the near future. Sales (green line) continue to trend down and supply (red line) is only beginning to drop.

More analysis is needed with this information as it is unwise to lump all these properties together. While each county shares similar market reactions, there is a distinct difference between beach properties and inland properties. I will do an in-depth analysis of each county in the coming weeks.

As a reminder for those who subscribe to the Tallahassee Real Estate Blog by email, some embedded pictures and videos might not be appearing in your email and you might need to click the title header to go to your browser where all will be visible.

Keep checking out the Tallahassee Real Estate Blog every day for updates that include charts, graphs, and analysis of the Tallahassee real estate market.

If you like this Article then please subscribe to my blog through a full RSS feed, or you can . You will be able to stay informed about the happenings in the Tallahassee Real Estate Market. You can also subscribe to this blog and have it delivered by Email.

Joe Manausa is a real estate investor and the Broker and Co-Owner of Century 21 First Realty. He can be reached via e-mail through the Tallahassee Real Estate Website or catch his latest writings on the Tallahassee Florida Real Estate Blog , or by calling (850) 386-2001.