Michelle Flaherty

This blog post a little overdue, but worth posting for anyone tracking the Portland area housing market.

Last Thursday, Lawrence Yun, the Chief Economist of the National Association of Realtors, visited Portland to give a presentation at our local board meeting. The purpose of inviting him to town was to hear his perspective on the Portland market and where it stands in relation to the rest of the country.

Like the chief economists who came before him, Dr. Yun has been up against a lot of criticism from people who feel that his forecasts are rosier than reality, and that he intentionally makes them that way to create a false sense of confidence with consumers. As I learned last week, that couldn't be further from the truth.

Leading up to his visit, I was chosen to write an article for Press Herald's real estate section announcing his arrival. I was also lucky enough to go to a dinner with him and a few other Portland Realtors the night before his presentation, at which we got talk to him on a more personal level and hear about what he does day to day.

Through my research for the article, I learned that Dr. Yun was extremely well-esteemed within the economic community and ranked the fifth most accurate economic forecaster in the U.S. last year by USA Today. And at dinner, I learned why. He told us that he actually has a staff of 17 economists that work with him, just collecting data on home sales. No other economist has that big of a staff. He also said that other economists constantly look to him for guidance as to where the housing market is going, since he is the only one who has access to the kind of data he's able to collect. And, contrary to what some say, his forecasts aren't always positive. In his words, "the facts are the facts."

That's why I was incredibly relieved when, in the midst of some huge government initiatives in the housing sector and the corresponding trouble in the stock market, he gave a relatively optimistic forecast on the Portland market, projecting price stabilization and maybe even some modest gains in mid-2009. The write-up from the Press Herald is below. http://pressherald.mainetoday.com/story.php?id=211039&ac=PHnws

He also made his PowerPoint presentation available on the Greater Portland Board of Realtors Website. www.portlandboardofrealtors.com

Imagine a Friday afternoon. You get out of work early, and park your car in the garage of your brand new home. The paint smells fresh, the countertops sparkle, and light pours in from the Palladian windows, reflecting on your hardwood floors. You walk out your sliding glass door and play a quick nine holes of golf in your backyard, for free.

Around six o'clock, you grab a companion and go for a short stroll around the corner to a building filled with artists' studios, all open for your perusal and enjoyment. You take in the colors, chat with the artists, and enjoy a complimentary glass of wine. Feeling refreshed, you walk across the street to a trendy restaurant to enjoy its delicious food and atmosphere.

Full and happy, you walk outside, just as the sun is setting over a well-manicured walking trail with views of a clean, fast river. You watch the water fall over the dam, and as the air cools off you stroll home and warm up next to your gas fireplace. Fully relaxed, you rest up for the next morning's walk to one of the area's best spinning classes.

This is the life at Rivermeadow Commons. Tucked into a quiet corner of Westbrook, owners enjoy large, high-end condominiums with open floor plans, great curb appeal, and walkable access to the city's newest and hippest amenities. Each comes with a free one-year golf membership to the abutting Rivermeadow Golf course, and the floorplan is customizable depending on each buyer's needs.

Are you ready to drive less and enjoy life more? If you're anything like me (see previous blog post), that sounds like a VERY attractive proposition. Contact me for a private tour of the model unit at Rivermeadow, and for more information on neighborhood amenities.

Last Wednesday, I got a mid-week break from work to take a 5-hour sail aboard one of the Windjammers on display in Boothbay Harbor for the town's annual Windjammer Days festival. Each year, the town organizes the festival, which includes sailing, a parade, food and games for kids, along with some private receptions and parties put on by various local groups. I was there with my boyfriend, who works on our Senator Susan Collins' campaign staff.

That morning, he picked me up with Mister Bagel and a coffee in hand (if you visit Portland, go there for breakfast - I'm addicted), and we headed up Rte. 1. When we got to Boothbay (about an hour from Portland), we met Dawn Gilbert, owner of the Heads of the Harbor hair salon, and the Lincoln County chair for the campaign, and headed down to the schooner, The Spirit of Massachusetts. The boat is one of three owed by Ocean Classrooms, a local non-profit that takes at-risk kids out of school to attend classes on the water. According to the teachers, something about being away from normal life and relying on their classmates as teammates really changes kids' demeanors and helps them grow.

We set out to sea on a perfect morning, and during our cruise Dawn pointed out the islands in the harbor, and told us stories about their history. We also got an up-close look at the Navy Warship that was in the harbor for the day, along with a closer look at some of the other windjammers. At one point, we had a musical battle with the Spirit of South Carolina - they had a bagpiper who was blasting out tunes, to which one of our crew members played back her fiddle.

After the sail, we went straight to the high school, where we prepped for the parade. Our float was a montage of patriotism, and staffed by Uncle Sam and some cute flag-waving kids. But the best part was that a nice man donated his '65 Beetle convertable to the parade, which we got to lead the float in. It was a standard, and a little scary on hills, but all in all the crowds were cheering and Herbie was a big hit!

After the parade and dinner, we reluctantly got back in the car and pointed it South, with thoughts of work-day Thursday creeping in to our rejuvinated minds. Sometimes the best vacations are taken one day at a time...

As one of my real estate role models Barbara Corcoran said recently on the Today Show, "You can never know. But most people agree that we are IN the bottom, and the smart people - the sharks - are out there buying right now."

Those people - the sharks - are the ones who know how to find the right segments of the market and take advantage of the opportunities they have to offer. What does that mean for Portland?

As we approach the end of the 2^nd quarter of 2008, I thought it would be helpful to take a look at a few of the more popular markets and see how they've been performing.

Since much of my business is in the condo market, I'm looking at the median sale prices for condos in three neighborhoods: Portland's East End, Downtown/Old Port, and West End.

The periods of time I'm comparing are January 1, 2007-June 20, 2007 and the same period for '08.

In general, the median condo price in Portland (FYI - the median condo price will generally buy you a 2-bedroom, 1-bath condo between 1,000 and 1,100 square feet) dropped from $210,000 in 2007 to $202,000 this year.

Keep in mind that when the median price goes down, it doesn't necessarily mean that values have gone down. It can simply mean that there are more affordable products available (smaller condos, for instance, or condos that need more work).

East End: Prices are down, and sales are up - indicative of a buyer's market.

2007: 8 sales, MSP $272,500

2008: 11 sales, MSP $250,000

Downtown/Old Port: Prices are down, and sales are up - indicative of a buyer's market.

2007: 13 sales, MSP $335,000

2008: 22 sales, MSP $243,000

West End: Prices are up, and sales are down - much of the affordable conversion inventory has been flushed out - we could have already seen the bottom here.

2007: 60 sales, MSP $176,250

2008: 38 sales, MSP $189,950

To explore the segment YOU're interested in, check out my website below to conduct a property search WITH ADDRESSES.

http://michelleflaherty.mainelistings.com

As many of you know, I am part of the community focus group for Westbrook Housing. Westbrook Housing has many roles in the community (affordable developer (ownership), market-rate developer (ownership), property management company, and facilitator for affordable and/or subsidized rental housing in Westbrook and the surrounding towns). I represent the needs of homebuyers, but at our meetings, some of the best commentary is from the lively group of seniors who call Larabee Village, Larabee Heights, and the other WH apartment complexes home.

Recently, the bus the seniors use to get around town started to encounter some problems. So this year, the organization's annual golf tournament proceeds are going to be allocated toward purchasing a new one. But with all of the other charity scrambles this summer, the seniors felt like they needed to stand out a little to get their bus. So they decided to see if they could get a celebrity guest to come to their tournament to attract players and sponsors.

The following video is what ensued... and it's hilarious!

www.youtube.com/westbrookhousing

To learn more about Westbrook Housing and the great work they've been doing in our community, go to www.westbrookhousing.org.