Daphne, AL

Pending home sales are showing signs of better days ahead for the real estate market on the Eastern Shore of the Mobile, Alabama, Metro area.

January sales were typically weak, at 43 homes sold in Spanish Fort, Daphne and Fairhope, compared with 56 in December 2009. Still, last month's sales were a slight improvement over January 2009 when just 40 homes sold.

This first week in February, 117 homes are under contract, a nice improvement from the 101 under contract in the first of January.

Pricing remains soft, with sellers taking on average 7 percent off the list price in January.

Inventory is rising, as it always does in the spring. Short sales and foreclosures remain a popular draw for buyers, but only represent 6% of all the homes listed on the Eastern Shore.

Here are the stats for the Eastern Shore:
Total houses for sale: 1,175, including 71 short sales or foreclosures.
Spanish Fort: 148
Daphne: 373
Fairhope: 547
Lake Forest: 107

Pending sales
Total: 117 (3 are new construction)
Spanish Fort: 18

Daphne: 47
Fairhope: 39
Lake Forest: 13


Closed sales for January 2010
Total: 43 (11 new construction)
Average sales price: $224,209, down from $302, 814 in December 2009 (which was skewed by two $1 million-plus sales).

Median sales price: $194,500, up $188,041 in December 2009 and $182,801 in November.
List to sale percentage: 93%, down from 94.47% in December 2009 and 95.96% in November

Spanish Fort: 12
Daphne: 15
Fairhope: 9
Lake Forest: 7

(Data from the Baldwin County Multiple Listing Service)

The Daphne, Alabama Lake Forest development is the largest residential community in the State of Alabama. Lake Forest has around 3,400 property owners with approximately $38 dues per lot. This PUD development has a clubhouse, golf courses, horseback riding stables, swimming pools, tennis courts and a yacht club on Mobile Bay. Lake Forest is located on the south side of U. S. Interstate Highway 10, east side of U. S. Highway 98, and located near major regional shopping centers.

Lake Forest is conveniently located near Historic Downtown Mobile, Alabama by traveling about 15 minutes west across the I-10 Bay-Way. Gulf Shores, Orange Beach and Alabama's white sandy beaches and blue-green waters of the Gulf of Mexico are located only about a 35-minute drive south southeast.

Currently, Lake Forest has at least thirty-eight (38) active MLS (Multiple Listing Service) REALTOR listings. Most of the listed homes have 1,300 to 3,000+ square feet (varies from unit to unit) and the asking prices will primarily range from $125,000 to $255,000.

There have been around forty-eight (48) MLS home sales in the past twelve months according to the Baldwin County Association of REALTORS. The vast majority of these Lake Forest home sales ranged from $75,000 and $210,000.

The Sales Per Month Absorption Rate is currently 4.33 homes per month in Lake Forest. With 38 active listings, the current housing supply is 8.78 months (38 active listings divided by 4.33 home sales per month).

Lake Forest 's Median Comparable Sale Price is now $108,000 compared to $120,000 four to six months ago. The days on market (dom) appears to mostly range from 96 days to 147 days over the past 12 months.

Lake Forest 's Median Sale Price as percentage of list price has slipped slightly over the past twelve (12) months: 96.445%, 7-12 months ago; 96.077%, 4-6 months ago; past 3 months, 94.943%.

For more information about Lake Forest, go to this weblink, http://www.lakeforestpoa.com/.

Albert Cheney, Cheney Appraisal Services, covers the Mobile Bay Metro Area, Baldwin County and Mobile County of Alabama. Albert Cheney is an active Certified Residential Real Property Appraiser and FHA Approved Appraiser with 35+ years experience in the real estate industry.

Call Albert Cheney at (251) 533-2424 or Albert@CheneyAppraisalServices.com if you require more information about Alabama real estate and ordering a "Certified" real estate appraisal report.

Statistics can be manipulated. But the evidence shows a 17.5% decline in house values on the Eastern Shore in 2009. Coupled with our deceptive and behind-the-rest-of-the-nation 1% decline in 2008, housing prices are almost back to pre-Hurricane Ivan levels of 2003-04.

The picture is a bit brighter in terms of the number of homes sold. Low interest rates, the first-time homebuyer tax credit and an abundance of inventory and incentives helped check the decline in the total sales to only 3.5% compared to 2008.

For the year, 803 homes sold between Spanish Fort and Point Clear, compared with 833 last year. Of these sales, 35% (281) were new construction and 14% (110) were foreclosures or short sales. That means "regular" existing home sales represented only half of homes sold.

Perhaps because of the entry of first-time buyers into the market, a little more than half of all sales were $200,000 or lower; and 82% of all sales were under $300,000. Yet, at present, only about a third of the Eastern Shore homes for sale are priced under $200,000.

Sellers of homes priced over $300,000, which represent a third of the Eastern Shore inventory, will be under great pressure to compete for the few buyers in this market. Realtors and market-watching investors expect foreclosures to become more commonplace in the upper price ranges.

But builders with new construction in the $200,000-and-lower range are making sales.

Inventory is still high, with some 1,144 homes on the market (compared to 1,082 this time last January). There are no indicators to show that prices have hit bottom or stabilized locally.

At the risk of sounding like a used car salesman (my apologies to all those in that noble profession - Guy, I mean you!) it's a good time to buy, as the home-buyer tax credit has been extended to existing home owners who qualify and buy before the April 30 deadline.

In fact, buyer activity increased during the Christmas and New Year's holidays, local Realtors say. Hopefully, that's a sign of things to come.

So now, a look back ...

On the Eastern Shore, the 4^th quarter of 2009 showed improvement in the number of sales, which rose to 183 compared with the 162 during the 4^th quarter of 2008, when the housing and banking crisis crested. Average sales price declined from $260,838 during the quarter last year to $230,117 this past quarter.

For the year, the average sales price fell from $287,736 in 2008 to $237,020 in 2009.

Fairhope: 64 homes sold in the 4^th quarter, up from 57 during the same time in 2008. Average price was $265,091, compared with $304,455 the previous year. Average time to sell rose from 172 days to 211 days.

For the year, 271 homes were sold, down from 293 in 2009. Average sales price dropped from $353,765 to $275,373 (not a typo). Days on market rose from 197 to 221.

Daphne/Montrose: 72 homes sold in the 4^th quarter, nearly unchanged from the 69 sales in the 4^th quarter of 2008. Average sales price increased from $248,922 to $250,140. Days on market rose from 166 to 176.

During all of 2009, 303 homes were sold, compared to 321 in 2008. Average sales price was $238,999, down from $271,599 in 2008. Days on market stretched from 150 to 170.

Lake Forest: 27 homes sold, up from 15 in the 4^th quarter of 2008. Average sales price dropped from $139,600 in the 4^th quarter of 2008 to $134,207 this last quarter. Days on market rose from 124 to 132.

For the year, there were 104 sales, compared to 99 in 2008. Average price dropped from $157,355 in 2008 to $142,757 in 2009. Days on market decreased from 159 to 141.

Spanish Fort: 20 homes sold in this past quarter, again almost unchanged from the 21 sales in the 4^th quarter of 2008. Average sales price went from $268,198 to $175,594 (not a typo). Days on market decreased from 130 to 114.

In 2008, 125 homes were sold vs. 120 in 2008. Average price dropped from $277,245 to $227,496. Days on market rose from 140 to 149.

Inventory: Here are the current homes on market

Spanish Fort: 155

Daphne/Montrose: 362

Fairhope: 523

Lake Forest: 104

Yes, real estate agents work on Sundy afternoons, with smiles on our faces. This Sunday we will be here from 1 - 4 p.m. Come and enjoy this beautiful home with us. Baby, it'll be cold outside, but warm inside!

29671 Saint Basil Street, Daphne, Alabama, 36526

Home sales on the Eastern Shore of Mobile Bay proved to be weak in December, as sales declined to 56 compared to 65 in November.

A poll of Realtors by the National Association of Realtors predicted a lull during the holidays and that was borne out in the statistics. Locally, however, the end-of-year season is usually second only to the April-May rush in sales in the area between Spanish Fort and Point Clear.

However, local Realtors report an uptick in buyer inquiries and showings in the last weeks of 2008. Hopefully, that will result in transactions in 2010. For now, pending sales are down slightly from 110 during the first week in December, 2009, to 101 on January 7.

Here are the stats for the Eastern Shore:
Total houses for sale: 1,144
Spanish Fort: 155
Daphne: 362
Fairhope: 523
Lake Forest: 104

Pending sales
Total: 101 (26 are new construction)
Spanish Fort: 20

Daphne: 45
Fairhope: 24
Lake Forest: 12


Closed sales for December 2009
Total: 56
Average sales price: $302, 814, a tremendous increase over $192,968 in November that can be attributed to a $1.75 million sale on Mobile Bay in Daphne and a $2.3 million sale in Fairhope.

Median sales price: $188,041, up from $182,801 in November.
List to sale percentage: 94.47%, down from 95.96% in November

Spanish Fort: 5
Daphne: 23
Fairhope: 21
Lake Forest: 7

(Data from the Baldwin County Multiple Listing Service)