The experts are saying...

Are home sellers in denial? Now that is a very good question, and everyone has an opinion. I'll bet you've already framed an answer in your own mind, and now you're waiting to hear what I have to say.

Yes, I think that's true. I've talked to a number of sellers, and even agents, who are convinced that their home is worth 10% higher than it's likely to get in today's market. In fact, even economists and other experts are making that observation. Just today, I was reading an article in MarketWatch by Rex Nutting, and he quoted the Chief Economist for Naroff Advisors as saying that "we still seem to be in the sellers' denial phase of the market and we haven't even hit the buyers' denial portion of the market, when people don't realize that prices are no longer dropping." At this point, I would normally throw the ball back into the court of whoever asked the question by asking "What's your opinion?" The truth is that I could have used any of the quotes which follow on this page.

Many REALTORS are, indeed, true experts who study real estate, the economy, market trends, the home building industry, and local real estate sales statistics because that is what it takes to be "the real estate experts" in our area. These agents really do know more about real estate than most home sellers, buyers and many agents, and THAT is why we bring value to consumers' real estate transactions. It's why we earn the "big bucks!" (And it's the reason we're more valuable than mere real estate licensees who don't do these things.)

When consumers ask a REALTOR a question - even a casual one like "Are home sellers in denial?" -they'll know the REALTOR is more than one of those "here today, gone tomorrow agents" when the REALTOR quotes statistics and the experts, in addition to sharing anecdotes from their own experience.

Use the links below, if you'd like to read the entire article that is the source of each quote.

Margaret Woda, Crofton Real EstateJoel Naroff, Chief Economist for Naroff Advisors: "We still seem to be in the sellers' denial phase of the market and we haven't even hit the buyers' denial portion, when people don't realize that prices are no longer dropping." U.S. inventory of homes for sale in May rises to 15-year high

Rex Nutting, Washington Bureau Chief of MarketWatch: "Starts of new homes in the United States dropped by 2.1% to a seasonally adjusted annual pace of 1.47 million in May, the softest pace of groundbreaking since January, the Commerce Department estimated Tuesday." U.S. housing starts fall in May to 1.47 million pace, down 2.1%

Housing Starts, Crofton MarylandPatrick McPherron, economist for Moddy's Economy.com: "The bottom of the housing market appears nowhere in sight." Home builders' confidence falls to 16-year low

Lawrence Yun, Senior Economist for NAR: "I think psychological factors are currently the biggest drag on the housing market, in addition to a disruption from tighter credit for subprime borrowers." Existing-Home Sales Show Market is Under Performing.

Office of Federal Housing Enterprise Oversight: "U.S. home prices increased 0.5% in the first quarter, the slowest quarter-to-quarter price gain in 10 years." Home prices rise at slowest pace in 10 years

Mike Englund, Chief Economist for Action Economics: "Inventories of homes on the market rose by 5% to a record 4.43 million, representing an 8.9-month supply at the May sales pace." Dollar stalls after home sales data.

You can keep up with the experts through MarketWatch, as well as NAR press releases. You can even register to receive a free MarketWatch Alert any time there is an article related to the Real Estate industry.

Margaret Woda, Crofton MD

Contact Margaret in Maryland for real estate in the D.C.-Baltimore-Annapolis triangle.

Posted Monday Jun 25

(06/25/07 01:30PM) — Bob Mitchell - Realtor St. Louis

I don't know if it's so much denial as hard headediness.  I've got two houses for sale right now and I'm at the point where I'll be damned if I'm going to sell either one for any less than I'm offering it for sale right now.  If I have to drop my pants to make a deal past this point, I'll rent both of them out until the market recovers.

If someone "has to" sell, then they might need to suck it up and drop their price, but if they don't...and most home sellers actually do have options, then it's not being in denial if we don't drop any more...hard headed maybe, but not denial.

 

Bob Mitchell

ValueList Real Estate Services, inc. 

 

(06/25/07 02:00PM) — Margaret Woda, Maryland REALTOR

Hi, Bob -

Thanks for your reply, because you helped me realize that my article needed a new title.   "Are home sellers in denial" may have been a catchy title, but it wasn't really intended to be the focus of my article so I moved it into the article itself.  I'm hoping for some discussion about the perception of agents as "experts" rather than debate on the merits of Mr. Naroff's statement.  Without your reply, I wouldn't have realized how distracting the title was.  So again, thank you!

Interesting stuff Margaret, thanks for posting!  

My opinion as it relates to real estate:

  1. Housing permits being down is a GOOD thing in our area because most homes are track homes.  Translation:  Less competition for resales
  2. Dollar deflation not necessarily a bad thing.  Translation:  More foreign real estate investments. 
  3. Inventory may be high but sales are still there.  Translation:  It isn't that people AREN'T buying, there is just too much to choose from which with normal supply/demand can lower prices.  If non-essential personnel report for listings only, we would have a normal economic outlook.
Thanks again!

(06/25/07 03:29PM) — Jay Beckingham

mix some denial with one of my favorites "it's worth more cause it's mine" and you have a good chance that you won't have any showings.

(06/25/07 05:10PM) — Margaret Woda, Maryland REALTOR

Lol, Jay. 

Renee, I like your positive spin on things!

Howdy Margaret

Congrat on a very good blog post you have done here.

(06/26/07 09:32AM) — Margaret Woda, Maryland REALTOR

Here's a new article that I received today in my MarketWatch alert:

U.S. housing prices decline at fastest rate in 16 years: Case-Shiller index

See how easy it is?  You, too can quote the authorities in a timely manner.

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