I received this from one of my favorite lenders this morning and thought I would share it with everyone. If you are looking for a home in Las Vegas the first thing you have to do is be pre-qualified with a lender. Mark is one of the best! Even if you are wanting to refinance, give Mark Baker a call at 702.451.1040 or e-mail him at Mark@MarkABaker.com or give me a call for a list of some fantastic lenders in town!

Where is the Real Estate market headed? That seems to be the question of the year right now. If you are asking that question, lets look at the indicators...

1. We are in the middle of a "mortgage armageddon". Wall Street has lost more money in the mortgage market than any of us can fathom. The good news is the loan programs have shrunk to a level that they will probably not shrink any more. The mortgage loans available today, will most likely be available tomorrow. In fact, look for new loan programs in the next few months & an easing of lending standards. The bad news is, the 2nd wave of losses is just getting ready to hit (in my opinion). With the number of homes just starting the foreclosure process, it looks as though the values might take a hit here in Las Vegas that most local experts didn't think would happen a year ago. (I also am one that thought we were in pretty good shape.) What we don't realize is the impact "the 2nd wave" of financial losses on Wall Street will have on us & the US economy.

2. Unemployment is higher than normal in Las Vegas. If you look at the recent statistics from DETR through August, the statistics show Las Vegas at a higher unemployment rate than the U.S. average. Not normal! The reason is really simple, look at all of the jobs lost with housing construction slowing & Hotel/Casinos that have closed. Each time a job is lost, it effects ancillary jobs (grocery stores, dry cleaners, restaurants, child care, etc.) as well. Combine this with the number of people still moving here...the numbers are not as strong as our local economy has been used to.

3. The housing inventory is large & growing every month. GREED drove many people to buy homes when they saw the Las Vegas housing hyper-appreciation. The number of listings that are vacant is over 45%. This means that almost half (of the more than double normal inventory of resale homes) listed for sale has no one living in the home. GREED is now turning into FEAR. The problem: FEAR almost always causes a more dramatic action/reaction than GREED in people. This is not good & we are just starting to see the results. Watch what happens next... (This single factor makes my always optimistic views turn pessimistic.)

4. Confusion is rampant. One thing I have learned over my years in business is confusion causes doubt in all circumstances. When it has to do with business/money, confusion causes people to make drastic decisions. This is causing even more FEAR in the real estate market. Please don't let this happen to you. Think things through & talk to your Real Estate agent if you have a home you are thinking about making changes with. Another reason you MUST have a good Real Estate agent if you are going to invest in real estate.

5. Consumer credit is drying up. Many people have accumulated more debt than normal. This is happening because people have bought a bigger home & not been able to sell the last home, the income they are used to has receded, the mortgage loan programs are not allowing borrowers to refinance to lower payments with the ARM's resetting, interest rates are not at the levels they were when the homes were purchased & most of all, with the consumer confidence level so high in the last few years, many people took money out of real estate & increased their lifestyle more than they should have.

6. Interest rates are still VERY GOOD...6.5% "ish" on a 30 year loan. The FED looks as though they are trying (again) to manipulate mortgage interest rates as we witnessed in 04 & 05. They had 17 continuous rate hikes (from 1% to 5.25%) but yet mortgage rates changed less than 1%. Please do not believe (like the majority of the public) that when the FED raises or lower rates, mortgage rates do the same thing. THE FED CANNOT CHANGE MORTGAGE INTEREST RATES. Hence, the FED lowering rates (as they are now doing) will most likely not "turn things around' like the experts are saying. You can't turn a ship this big very quickly.

All of this said, let's think about what the close future holds...

In the next 18 months it appears economics will be slower than Las Vegas is used to. After that, construction on the strip will shoot up even more with 20k + construction people going full bore (keep in mind again all of the ancillary jobs this will create). Next we will have thousands of hotel rooms opening & guess what that needs...workers. The question that begs to be asked is: Where will these people live? We do not have enough product to house all of these people & yes...the builders will have to build more homes...again. Don't think for a minute that we won't have another housing boom, sooner than you might think. Make sure you position yourself to take advantage of things. Let me know if I can help as it has never been a better time to reevaluate your financial situation. We can manage your mortgage but maybe more importantly, ask you the questions that will help you find the answers to your financial goals.

Any questions or comments please feel free.

www.MaryW.com or www.MaryWarren.com