Timing the Market

Timing the Market by Bill Roberts

Qualcomm is a local high tech company here in San Diego. Owning their stock has made quite few of their employees and other local people Millionaires. I figured that everybody could understand making money this way. You simply bought Qualcomm stock in the beginning and sold it after the price went up (way up).

Last Friday it closed at $42.39 per share. Back in March of '03 you could have bought some Qualcomm stock for around $15.00. Now my question to you is, "Would it really have mattered to you if you had paid $14.50 or even $15.50? Sure, you want to make as much as you can, but if you had tried to "time the market" to buy it at $14.50 you might have missed it completely and had to pay upwards of $20.00 per share if you wanted in.

My advice to you is to buy when you can. Don't worry about picking up every nickel off the table. Just get what you can. You would have gotten nearly 300% growth in the share price. Why be greedy?

The Real Estate Market 

Now here in San Diego we have a "soft" real estate market. Prices are off their highs by 30% or more in some areas. Some people think that there is a little more room for prices to drop.

If you want to invest in San Diego real estate now is a good time to get in. Because it is a "soft" market the buyer has an edge when negotiating with the seller. Good deals and good terms can be had. Maybe the market will fall another 15% before it starts back up. Then again, maybe not.

What is for sure is that ten years from now the prices are going to be considerably higher. How much higher is simply conjecture, but certain facts need to be reckoned with:

• More people will want to live here in ten years;
• The dollar will be worth considerably less in ten years; Room for growth will become more scarce;
• Labor and materials for construction will be more expensive;
• And there is no indication that government is going to make development in the region any easier.

All of these factors considered together make for a very complicated analysis, but a reasonable person could conclude that prices will be up 200% to 400% in the next ten years.

Now Is The Time 

Is it really going to matter if you pay 5% or 10% too much now? Trying to "time the market" could cost you the opportunity to get in at this "buy point." Ten years from now you will be glad you bought now.

Call Bill Roberts (619) 244-4610 for any real estate questions you may have.