The Daily Dirt - How's the Market? News from the Mile High Home Hunter (Pt. 2)

Lower Home Inventories - Crisis? Been there. Done That!

What do lower inventories tell you intuitively? 

It tells me that supply is lower than demand.  And when supply is lower than demand, what happens to price?  It goes up!

Well, below is a chart showing the national scene.  You can see the preliminary number for February 2008 - the latest statistics available - show 9.6 months of inventory. 

Just looking at this chart, you get a real sense of why there is panic:  Months of Inventory (how long it would take to sell all the actively listed homes to sell if no more came on market) has more than doubled.  Most of THAT change took place in the past 14 months.

Here are the Months of Inventory numbers from the National Association of Realtors®:

•·        2005 - 4.5 Months of Inventory

•·        2006 - 6.5 Months of Inventory

•·        2007 - 8.9 Months of Inventory

•·        2008 (February) - 9.6 Months of Inventory

Even to the casual observer in real estate, one can see the aggressive action by the Fed in January has appeared to start a downward trend of that line.  The Fed has dropped the Fed Funds Rate from 5.25% a year ago to 2.25% in its last meeting. The market is pricing in another drop in the next meeting on May 9^th.

Although it might have been a time of great anxiety a few months ago, for those strategic purchasers who were prepared, an opportunistic buying opportunity existed.  And, despite the soft market, practitioners in the hardest hit areas tell me that "well-priced homes move quickly". The challenge - as with any market - is the person who acts emotionally as opposed to being armed with data often loses: loses out on opportunity, loses out on bailing out of a bad market.

So, what is the market saying: On a national basis, the market is leaning toward a buyer's market.  So, how is Denver?

For those of you who have worked with me in that past year, I have been saying that the Buyer's Market is fading in Denver. 

Yeah, I know, you don't believe me.  Well, I think most people trust me, but have a hard time believing something that flies in the face of what they hear on TV/Radio all day long.  Most people tell me they think I sound like that commercial referenced earlier.  However, the data is the data.

Denver got hit harder about 6 years ago when the tech implosion took place.   Since then, the markets have been improving.  Many clients to find themselves shocked to see foreclosure homes on which they are bidding having multiple contracts offered for them.

Let's look at the same data for Denver.

First, you will note that the Months of Inventory is running around 6 months. Six months is the tipping point between being a Buyer's Market (Months of Inventory over 6) and a Seller's Market (Months of Inventory under 6). 

As an FYI, I use a trailing 12-months average to calculate months of inventory. I use that to take out the fact that Denver is a seasonal market: 60% of the transactions take place between April and September, 40% of the transactions take place between October and March.  So, without that de-seasonalizing, the winter inventory would be exaggerated by 2 months and the summer inventory would be shrunk an additional 1.25 months.  So, unless people started to look, purchase and close in the same month, it's realistic to associate the entirety of the client's search window - which can be up to a year.

Based on information from Metrolist, Inc. for the period February 2007 until February 2008.

Note: This representation is based in whole or in part on content supplied by Metrolist, Inc. Metrolist, Inc. does not guarantee nor is in any way responsible for its accuracy. Content maintained by Metrolist, Inc. may not reflect all real estate activity in the market.

The chart above shows that Denver was affected from the mortgage crisis, but that we are still about 50% better than the national average!  The current Months of Inventory is running about 5.9 months, just slightly into "Seller's Market" territory. When you include areas outside the metro who still post to the Denver MLS, that number jumps to 6.5.  That's about 40% better than the national average!

You will note that there was an upward trend in Denver in February.  That appears to be the result of:

• People listing after the holidays
• And, newly confident sellers jumping into the market.
  • 5,400 new listings came on market in February. In March, 1,800 of those came off market in some form (sold, under contract or withdrawn). 
  • The 5,400 represented at 31% increase in listings from the prior month.

From this data, I see an increasingly favorable environment for Denver real estate, and the fading away of the Buyer's Market.

This data is reinforced when taken in the context of my blog entry about the Case/Schiller Index drifting to a 20-year low (click here to view), a story that broke in late February.  You will recall that Denver was #7 of the top 20 markets surveyed. And you will recall that Denver had moved to #7 from #16 since 2000.  So, the above data would tend to correlate strongly to the good news about our Months of Inventory.

As I always say - as well as the hundreds of thousands of folks out there who practice real estate - all real estate is local.  Here is how the local market is faring on a locale-by-locale basis as of April 4, 2008, looking back into the month of March.

As you see above, the market is very specific, even on a community-by-community basis.  Louisville has 2.5 months of inventory.  Homes are selling so fast, that they would only move faster if they had wheels on 'em.  On the other end of the spectrum, Greenwood Village and Castle Rock are at 9.0 and 9.9 months of inventory, respectively. They are emulating the national market at this time. While Littleton, just a bicycle ride away, is at 3.7 months of inventory. So, yes, it can be a great time to buy and sell at the same time in the same market - the Denver Metro.

Historically Low Interest Rates - Combined with an Aggressive Fed

Not only is the movement of homes improving, but the macroeconomic environment is too.

One of the things that is amazing to me - even as busy as I have been - is why more people aren't moving?!?!?!  Rates are INCREDIBLE!!!!

The chart below shows the near term interest rates, which are running at about 5.75% nationally. Denver's rates seem to be running slightly higher, closer to 5.80%.

Immediately below is some research I found at the St. Louis Federal Reserve Bank's website.  The chart is an historical reflection for the years 1970 to the present.  The shaded areas are when recessions occurred (two quarters of economic contraction).  In most of the instances viewed, recessions have occurred when interest rates spike quickly and they pass when interest rates drop.  

Given this history, it would appear reasonable that in today's interest lowering environment that one would expect any recession would be mild - barring continued illiquidity in the market.

Just reflect on your own circumstances:

•·        Is a 30-year fixed mortgage of 5.75% too high?

•·        Is a 30-year fixed mortgage of 6.50% too high?

•·        Is a 30-year fixed mortgage of 8.00% too high?

Chances are you had a home loan interest rate that was higher than any of those in the past.  So, isn't now a better time to buy?  You bet it is! It's historically good.  Just take a look at the 30-Year Conventional Mortgage Rate chart to see for yourself.

So, why are folks sitting on the sidelines?  Fear.

Everyday, there is some three-alarm story about the credit crisis.  Let's talk about the facts: Only 2.04% of the loans are in foreclosure.  That means 98% are doing just fine.  Now, I have not been able to find the percentage of loan value that is in default, but I am betting that it is the lower balance loans, to first-time home buyers, that are in foreclosure in most instances. So, the actual balance of funds in foreclosure is likely less than 2.04%. 

Just think:  If you had 98% of your business/job going well, would you be in a position to howl in agony about how bad things are?   I might not complain so much. However, good news never leads the news. So, take it in context. And if you need help understanding it, call me. If I don't know the answer, I will find it out. 

Now, here's that look back to the historical 30-year mortgage rates.