From Sharp Downturn to Flattening- The Phoenix Housing Market

The question I've heard most often in the last few months it this, "Have we reached the bottom yet?"

Let's give the short answer: "possibly"

I (and most of my fellow agents) have been keeping a finger on the pulse of the market with great regularity during recent years.

For those of us who chart such thing we produced very odd graphs. They looked like a jaggy red line climbing a steep hill that all of a sudden dropped off of a cliff.

Such has been the drop in housing prices and home sales over the past two years. 

This dramatic downward decline has slowed. The new charts look different... and with reason.

Tempe, home to Arizona State University has a department devoted to the scholarly study of real estate. Their "Repeat Index Sales Report, 2008" is available by download.

It's chock-full of information that industry watchers love. Let me give you some highlights:

• January 2008 sales show a leveling off of downward trends.

• Valley prices increased 76% from January 2004 to July 2006.

• Prices decreased 11% July 2006 - Jan 2008.

• For those who bough five years ago (and previously) the net gain is still sizable. With prices leveling off recently the net result for the decade will be significant.

While no one can predict the future... quantitative studies give us the empirical evidence we need to help answer market questions.

Most importantly: declines and rises are occurring in several areas of the valley. It's best to consult with an expert before jumping into the market.

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Chuck Willman is a real estate agent licensed in the state of Arizona. Contact him at www.AZvest.com.