Localism: Phoenix, AZ

Phoenix Month's Supply of Housing Inches Up

Mon, 01 Dec 2008 10:39:12 -0600

For the first time in eight months, the month's supply of housing increased for the city of Phoenix.

The month's supply of housing is the relationship between the supply (listings) and demand (the number of properties sold in the past 6 months) for real estate; it is the leading indicator of future property values. The lower the number the better.

The market hit a tipping point or a bottom in March with a 19.1 month supply of housing, since that time, the month's supply of housing has continued to decrease, until now.

From March to October, the month's supply of housing declined from a 19.1 month supply of housing to a 11.08 month supply; a 42% decline in seven months.

However, that trend finally broke when we ran the numbers today. The month's supply of housing currently stands at 11.18, a 1% increase from last month.

While this modest increase for the city of Phoenix may not seem significant, we are seeing significant increases in terms of the month's supply of housing for a number of cities throughout the metro area. For instance, Scottsdale inventory has increased now for three consecutive months after bottoming in August of 2008. Scottsdale inventory is up 26.5% over this short period and is actually the highest it has been in six months.

When loking at the raw data, the sales versus the number of listings, it is the rate at which properties are coming to the market that is negatively affecting the month's supply of housing. While demand is not as strong as it could be, it is the supply of housing that continues to present systemic problems for the metro Phoenix housing market. Property values have dropped so aggressively over the past two years that many home owners are unable to sell or refinance their properties outright and are having to result to short sales and foreclosures.

Just how bad is the new home sales market?

Thu, 27 Nov 2008 17:21:23 -0600

In case you are wondering why I am writing this blog post on Thanksgiving, I do indeed have a life - sort of. I also happen to have three little babies who are nestled all snug in their beds napping after their feast this afternoon. So I have a chance to look into something that I have been wondering about.

I have written quite a bit about the existing home sales market, the one that NAR tracks. Just to give you some context, in 2008, we are expecting to see about 4.98 million existing home sales, according to the NAR. This is down nearly 30% from a peak of 7.076 million in 2005 - a significant decline in just 3 years.

We need to go back to 1998 (4.966 million existing sales) and 1999 (5.183 million existing sales) as the last time so "few" existing homes were sold. So the numbers for 2008 are bad, but they're not THAT bad.

And so that you can better understand home sales trends if you are new to them, typically, all else being equal, home sales should increase every year as our population increases every year. Some years of course will be better than others, but there is clearly an upward trend in home sales over the past several decades.

With that information as a background, take a look at what is going on with NEW single-family home sales. According to a report just put out by the Commerce Department we are on pace to sell 433,000 new homes in 2008. The last time so few new home sales took place was way back in 1982 when there were 412,000 new home sales. In fact, outside of 1982, this 433,000 number would be the smallest amount of new home sales on record since 1970 (source: Department of Commerce). Even in 1970 there were 485,000 new home sales.

Take a look at this:

1970 Existing home sales: 1.612 million

1970 New home sales: .485

2008 Existing home sales: 4.98 million

2008 New home sales: .433

Despite the fact that existing home sales have nearly tripled since 1970, new home sales are down 11% over that same time period.

As I had mentioned before, I am not a proponent of bailouts for car makers, home builders, banks, or even homeowners for that matter. But I have acknowledged that the government needs to provide a fiscal stimulus to jump start the housing market and subsequently the economy. New homes have a significant "GDP" associated with them and when I see new home sales being devastated like this it is no wonder why our municipalities and economy are deteriorating so quickly.

What are you thankful for?

Tue, 25 Nov 2008 23:00:09 -0600

So I go to my son's Thanksgiving "feast" at his pre-school today. He had on a pilgrim hat he had made and had a tasty looking meal with a dozen of his closest friends. A great time was had by all - and of course because I was thinking about 300 things as I ran out the door to meet him there, I forgot the camera. But I will get a picture of him in his Pilgrim hat and post it on here shortly.

The reason this is "blog worthy" is because of what the teachers had their students do. Each kid was asked what they were thankful for. Our son Jackson said, "his family and doggy" which was great to hear as a parent. It couldhave been candy, or juice, or his toys, whatever. In fact one kid was grateful for Barack Obama even though his parents had admitted that they voted for McCain!

But this got me thinking about something that I try to acknowledge every day, and that is what I am thankful or grateful for - it is amazing what comes into your life when you acknowledge what you already have, it puts you in a state of abundance.

So, here is my top 10 list of things I am thankful for:

1.) My family. My beautiful wife Sarah and our three babies Jackson, Carter, and Madison - and yes, even our "doggy" Bailey. I had no idea that life can be so good.

2.) I am thankful that our family is healthy.

3.) I am thankful that I live in the greatest country in the world. Because it has given my every opportunity to succeed - which is all anybody ever wants - an opportunity.

4.) I am thankful to all of my clients and business partners that have helped grow my business to where it is today.

5.) I am thankful that I still have a job, and that despite the changing real estate market, I have the opportunity to still wake up every day and work - there are a lot of Americans that don't have this opportunity.

6.) I am thankful that our family is healthy.

7.) I am thankful for the challenges that I face in my business because without them, i would not be who and where I am today.

8.) I am thankful for the 24 years that I had to spend with my Dad before he passed on.

9.) I am thankful that our family is healthy.

10.) I am thankful for Active Rain for giving us all an opportunity to learn and interact at a speed that none of us would be able to do without this community.

So what are you thankful for?

Energy Savings coming to Phoenix Arizona!

Mon, 24 Nov 2008 15:12:24 -0600

That's right The Energy Doctors are expanding once again! We have received a number of applications from potential affiliates in the Phoenix area and are beginning the process of deciding on the right person. If you would like to get your hat in the ring for the Phoenix area please visit our website at http://www.energydoctors.org to find out about a Home Energy Audit Phoenix visit the link.

CityNorth in Northeast Phoenix is Now Open

Mon, 24 Nov 2008 12:57:47 -0600

The weekend before last, CityNorth in Northeast Phoenix had its Grand Opening celebration. While the complete complex has yet to be completed, many of the shops and restaurants on High Street were unveiled.

The celebration was complete with food vendors, animals from the Phoenix Zoo, live entertainment and music and more.

High Street is a nice blend of chain retail stores and local boutiques in an open-air setting. Some of the stores that are already open include Chico's Gymboree, Caribbean Kids and more. For pet lovers, there is Green Bone Bakery, which serves up organic treats. The remainder of the stores should be opening soon.

Dining-wise, there are a few places open already that look to be quite tasty. Anchoring one end is Ocean Prime that looks like a more contemporary Ocean Club. It has a great patio area where you can enjoy drinks and food while people watching. Another establishment to try is Saito's Japanese Steakhouse. It is filled with teppanyaki grills where the food is cooked up right in front of you. I had an opportunity to try Mojo Yogurt, which is a self-serve yogurt store with at least 6 flavors to choose from and lots of toppings. Another place that looks interesting is Press Coffee Food Wine with its indoor/outdoor seating.

CityNorth is also home to luxury condos, The Residences on High Street, which are located over the retail space below. I did not get a chance to see them in person, but from what I can tell, they are going to be a great addition to the area and you cannot beat the location.

When complete, CityNorth will have a Nordstrom, Macy's and Arizona's first Bloomingdales. These new additions should open in 2010.

About CityNorth: CityNorth is located next to Desert Ridge Shopping Center at 56th Street and Deer Valley, just north of Loop 101. Public as well as valet parking available.
For more information, please visit www.citycenterofcitynorth.com

To see the original post and to learn more about Scottsdale and the surrounding areas, please visit Scottsdale Real Estate News & Lifestyle.