North Alabama Real Estate Statistics

Is the spring thaw starting?

I try hard to stay in the middle of the road and not make predictions because, fact is, no one knows what is going to happen. I also know that one or two good months does not mean much. However, looking at the numbers I think I just might see a little bit of an upswing starting.

The number of sales have been easing upwards since November. Inventory levels have steadied and actually dropped this month. Average sales price is creeping upward. Of course, on the other side this month median price is down and Days on the Market is up.

When you look at the charts there is nothing to really indicate it's improving. However, if you look closely at the trend line, which is a three month average, the Homes Sold trend line is pointing upward for the first time in many months. Months of Inventory turned the corner and started downward. All this is far from conclusive and may turn downard next month, too.

I was talking to a local banker this past week and he was saying March had started out as a much better month. People were seeking loans for vehicles and consolidating, areas that had been very slow.

You're welcome to call me optimistic, but for some reason I think that this is the first sign of some improvement in the market. Maybe it is just wishful thinking, but I hope I am right.

Now for some numbers. The number of sales was up 20% for February compared to last month. 294 homes sold compared to 245. Average sales price ($195,464) and Median prices ($165,000) were off -6.1% and -5.2%, respectively. Compared to Feb 2008 the number of sales were down 31.6%, but Average price was up 1.4% and Median price was up 5.8%.

Jeff Horton

In order to improve the Newsletter the data now includes all of Madison County.

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The Charts

Chart shows the number of Residential homes sold in each month along with the average Days On the Market for those properties.

I like to put Median and Average prices together. The main number to watch is the Median Price. It is the better indicator of what price homes are selling for.

This chart is pretty obvious, just the raw number of homes for sale. Number of months of Inventory is a better indicator of the Market.

This is a good indicator of supply and demand since it included the number of homes sold.

More inventory the more it is a buyers market. Less inventory it becomes more of a sellers market. Of course all factors must be considered and you should not just rely on one set of numbers.

This chart is a duplication but I like the way it is laid out. You can see the number of sales each year for each month making it easy to see differences in the past few years.

The Trend Line is important. It averages over the previous 3 months of data and helps to allow for the spikes and dips and shows what I think is a more accurate trend. It is the thin black line at the top of the bars in the graph. It is more important than any single months data.

The data is current as of the day of writing. Every month it seems the previous months sales data has changed since I wrote the previous newsletter. In order to keep the newsletter timely we have decided not to wait but to update the previous months sales data. Please keep this in mind when using the information in this newsletter.