Are We Heading For Housing Down Turn in Vancouver?

Greater Vancouver List/Sale Data - June 2008

The June housing data for British Columbia, Canada was showing a dramatic change from what happened a year ago. Although the average prices reported by the various real estate boards (except Victoria, BC) were higher, the June 2008 listings and sales data were telling a different story. The market is not looking good!

Click here to view the June 2008 housing report released by the British Columbia Real Estate Association (BCREA) - "residential sales dollar volume on the Multiple Listing Service® (MLS®) in BC declined 34% to $3.31 billion in June, compared to June 2007".

An analysis and interpretation of the Fraser Valley, Greater Vancouver and BC data here is an attempt by the writer to predict the state of the housing market for the coming months.

Absorption Rate

The "absorption rate" or "the number of months to sell all the listed homes" in BC changed dramatically from 3.3 months in June 2007 to 8.0 months last month. The ratio being a leading indicator on pricing trend, increased steadily since March 2008. In May, the absorption rate - list/sale ratios for most areas passed the 6 months threshold. The ratio for BC in June as shown above is now at 8 months - the can be considered a "buyer's market".

The Calgary and Edmonton housing market experienced a short 2 years run-up in price gains. The markets there had declined for about a year now, and Calgary suffered a price drop around 5% while Edmonton was down around 13%. Click her to refer to Brian Ripley's housing price charts.

In Greater Vancouver, since 2001 house prices went through an uninterrrupted 7 years appreciation as can be viewed here. In view of the market now turning soft, possibly heading for a decline if market sentiment turn bearish. The question is "How much prices will correct... 10%, 15% or 30%?"

The BC housing market will re-balance in favour of home buyers. Home prices will likely give up some of the gains over the past few years.