Forecast predicts 9.5% O.C. house-price gain

This is an article by Jeff Collins, in this morning's Orange County Register:

Home-data firm First American CoreLogic predicts that Orange County house prices will be up 9.5% next August from this past summer.

If accurate, the median price of an Orange County house would increase by nearly $48,000 from the $500,000 median reported by DataQuick in August and September.

Those price gains would outstrip appreciation rates for the nation’s 10 largest metro areas, First American reported. For example, Los Angeles County is forecast to see home prices rise 6.3%, the highest rate among the big 10. That’s followed by Miami-Dade County’s projected 6.1% gain.

First American projected that California’s house prices will increase 7.9% by August, while nationwide prices will go up 4.6%. First American expects U.S. home prices to hit bottom in March.

First American’s forecast is just the latest in the past five weeks. Among the others:

• The UCLA Anderson Forecast predicted that O.C. home prices will go up between 15.9% and 16.6% in 2010, following by increases of 2.5% to 8.7% from 2011 to 2015. The median price isn’t expected to reach the boom-time peak of $626,000 until 2016 or 2017.
• Anil Puri, dean of Cal State Fullerton’s Mihaylo College of Business and Economics, predicted that O.C. home prices will fall through the first half of 2010, and then either stay flat or rise by 2% to 3% at the most.
• Economist Mark Schniepp — author of UCLA’s Orange County forecast — projected that home values in Ventura, Santa Barbara, Orange, and San Diego counties would return to 2004 levels by mid-2012, a gain of approximately 30%.
• California Association of Realtors Chief Economist Leslie Appleton-Young forecast that California home prices will rise 3.3% next year, driven by sales of distressed homes.
• Veros, specialists in automated real estate valuations, said their housing model shows Orange County housing values for their benchmark “single-family residential mid-price tier properties” rising 2% in the year ended Sept. 1, 2010.

First American’s Home Price Index showed that Orange County house prices fell 7.9% in August, its most recent data. Prices for non-distressed homes only — which excludes bank-owned houses and short sales (where prices are below debt) — had dropped by a slightly smaller margin: 7.1%.

Here’s a sampling of what we’ve covered in recent weeks:

• UCLA sees 16% O.C. home-price gain in 2010
• CSU Fullerton sees tiny O.C. home-price gain in 2010
• First American says Calif. house prices projected to jump 7.9%
• O.C. housing recovery more rapid than expected, UCI prof says
• Calif. home prices forecast by Realtors to rise 3.3%
• Veros: O.C. house prices seen rising 2% in a year

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