How Much Farther Will Housing Prices Fall in Central Marin County CA

One way to evaluate how much farther prices will have to fall in Central Marin County CA is to approximate average incomes in each town and to apply some basic financial planning concepts to determine what average prices should be.

Approximate 2009 Average Incomes:

•· Incomes in Larkspur: $142,000

•· Incomes in Kentfield: $242,000

•· Incomes in San Anselmo $119,000

1. Example: The average family living in Homes in Larkspur CA earns $142,000, pays $16,000 income tax, leaving them with $126,000. They spend 30% on mortgage interest, could afford a $38,000 annual mortgage (rate 5.5%), and a $691,000 mortgage. The average homeowner has 35% home equity, so Larkspur can support an average home value of $1,062,000.

	Projected Average	Current	Difference
Larkspur	1,062,000	1,078,000	+1%
Kentfield	1,766,000	2,004,000	+12%
San Anselmo	889,300	845,377	-5%

The result shows that homes in Larkspur CA are priced very close to where they should be, and that homes in Kentfield CA are substantially above what those towns could support from a financial planning perspective. It is important to note that the resident of Kentfield have had long successful careers and their current incomes are not the key to home ownership in the better neighborhoods there.

Homes in San Anselmo CA are trading below where they should be from a financial planning / income perspective, and many homes on the market represent a great bargain.

Posted by David DuPont 415-867-6611