Mortgage Market Report

Market Outlook
Thursday, July 02, 2009 7:15 AM
Price Trend: Positive
Price Volatility: High
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Current Conditions: Today’s Economic Data (all times PST)
FNMA 4.5 100-00 (+3) Non-Farm Payrolls 5:30
GNMA 4.5 100-02 (+4) Unemployment Rate 5:30
10yr Yield 3.510% Jobless Claims 5:30
Factory Orders 7:00
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Commentary:
The obvious focus this morning was the employment report. Job losses in June were more than expected
and came from just about every sector. The May number was revised lower but that did nothing to change
the opinion that this was a bad report. The unemployment rate rose slightly less than expected and hourly
earnings were flat. The flat earnings combined with a shorter average work week (33.0 vs 33.1) does not
point to an improving job market. Initial Jobless Claims remained above 600K and need to get below 350K
before we will see a serious improvement in the labor markets.
The market is closed tomorrow, but there is not the typical early close today. That being said, volume is
expected to fall off as the day goes on and could lead to large price swings.
Have a safe holiday weekend!!
This Week’s Calendar:
Date ET Release For Actual Consens
us Prior
Jun
30
09:00
a.m. Consumer Confidence Jun 49.3 55.1 54.9
Jun
30
09:00
a.m.
S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price
Index Apr -18.1% -18.75% -18.70%
Jun
30
09:45
a.m. Chicago PMI Jun 39.9 38.5 34.9
Jul 01 08:15
a.m. ADP Employment Change Jun -473K -394K -532K
Jul 01 10:00
a.m. Construction Spending May -0.9% -0.6% 0.8%
Jul 01 10:00 ISM Index Jun 44.8 44.6 42.8