Mortgage Market Report

Market Outlook
Thursday, August 27, 2009 7:05 AM
Price Trend: Neutral
Price Volatility: High
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Current Conditions:
FNMA 4.5 100-09 (-1)
GNMA 4.5 100-15 (-2)
10yr Yield 3.433
Today’s Economic Data (PST)
GDP 5:30
Jobless Claims 5:30
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Commentary:
Treasury and mortgage prices are close to unchanged after being down earlier this morning. Bonds reacted
negatively to a better than expected revision to Q2 GDP. Economists expected that the revision would show
that the economy had contracted more than originally reported last month. Instead GDP remained
unchanged and personal consumption (consumer spending) was revised higher.
Next up is the 7 ye Treasury auction later this morning. Yesterday’s 5yr auction went well and the consensus
is that this 7yr will be well received, too.
This Week’s Economic Calendar
Date/Time
(Central) Indicator Period Est. Actual Prior
8/25
8:00
S&P/CaseShiller Comp-20
(YoY) JUN -16.45% -15.4% -17.06%
8/25
9:00 Consumer Confidence AUG 47.6 54.1 46.6
8/26
6:00 MBA Mortgage Apps. 21-
Aug 7.5% 5.6%
8/26 Durable Goods Ex. Trans. JUL 0.9% 0.8% 1.1%
7:30
8/26
9:00 New Home Sales JUL 390K 433K 384K
8/26
9:00 New Home Sales (MoM) JUL 1.6% 9.6% 11.0%
8/27
7:30 GDP QoQ (Annualized) 2Q P -1.4% -1.0% -1.0%
8/27
7:30 Personal Consumption 2Q -1.2% -1.0% -1.2%
8/27
7:30 Initial Jobless Claims 22-
Aug 565K 570K 576K
8/27
7:30 Continuing Jobless Claims 15-
Aug 6215K 6130K 6241K
8/28
7:30 Personal Income JUL 0.1% -1.3%
8/28
7:30 Personal Spending JUL 0.2% 0.4%
8/28
7:30 PCE Deflator (YoY) JUL -0.9% -0.4%
8/28
7:30 PCE Core (MoM) JUL 0.1% 0.2%
8/28
7:30 PCE Core (YoY) JUL 1.3% 1.5%
8/28
9:00
U of Mich. Consumer
Confidence
AUG
F 64.3 63.2