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Treasury Bonds , The Socal Housing Bubble, and the Buyers Market

Greetings Everyone

Things have been quite interesting as of late. The Stock Market closed at levels near the last bear market bottom of 2003 today, Gold in closing in on $1,000 per ounce and nervous investors are buying Bonds in droves in a "flight to quality" move. Can't say I blame them, can you? Also, most of us are trying to figure when/if the housing market will stabilize sometime in the future. I am not a fan of catching daggers, but with many investors buying bonds these days, there is a concern that this will push yeilds to an artificial low, or "overbought" levels. At some point, it would make sense for traders, especially contrarians, to start shorting bonds, or perhaps even taking a position in ETF's (Exchange Traded Funds) which will allow you to play just about any market (including Real Estate) up or down. This would seem to make a fairly good argument for intereste rates to eventually start to inch upward rather then go lower. Given the fact that consumer confidence is quite low, the news is awful, and the masses have taken to predicting everything is "going to hell in a hand basket" these days, does this not appear as a possible bottom? Even if housing values decrease from here, higher interest rates could still make your mortgage payment higher, right? My bet is: if the stock market starts to rally in the next few months, the "recovery" that all of us are hoping for will begin to manifest itself 6-9 months later. Questions? Observations?

Posted Tuesday Feb 17