Lyons Real Estate Report for Alameda County California - August 2009

Tom Lyons-Real Estate Expertise

925-216-1105

realestate@tomlyons.com

19 Years of experience in Tri Valley Real Estate

The Lyons Tri Valley Real Estate Report

August 2009

Year / Volume #3-Issue #24

We'll start the August report with important supply and demand numbers.

City Available Houses Pending Sales Months Supply

Livermore 182 154 1.18

Pleasanton 227 112 2.02

Dublin 94 81 1.16

San Ramon 194 174 1.11

Danville 217 86 2.52

Totals 914 607 1.50

The above numbers are important in helping determine what is currently happening with Tri Valley Real Estate. As of 8/1/09 there is little, or no, house inventory available. There is nothing available (For the most part..) in the lower price ranges .... All available houses have sold. 90% of the REO's and short sales in the lower price ranges have been sold. What available inventory out there is mostly in the higher price ranges .... + $1M and higher. (Pleasanton and Danville) In the upper price ranges sales are still slow and there is inventory available.

Currently, there are many buyers out there, wanting to buy in the lower price ranges, first time buyers and investors mostly .... And there is nothing out there for them to buy.

So what does all this new information mean??

In the lower price ranges ..... In the $200K's-$400K's ... it means that prices are actually appreciating ... and we have seen price appreciation over the past 30 days. Buyers are currently lining up to purchase lower priced homes .... Most listings receive anywhere from 5-15 offers!! Prices in the middle price ranges ($500K's- $700K's) have held steady over the past 60 days. Upper price ranges in the Tri Valley Area are still soft .... Meaning that supply still outstrips demand.

These improved numbers described on page means that home sellers in the lower to middle price ranges may be able to get more money for their homes if they plan to sell. Why? Presently there are more buyers out there than sellers, demand is outstripping supply .... that translates into higher sales prices on homes.

What's going on with all the foreclosures?? A record number of homes continue to be in foreclosure. Many of the recent sales have been short sales as banks, not wanting to foreclose, are now more open to short sales and loan modifications. Many of the homes currently in foreclosure do not hit the market as bank owned REO's. Instead, the banks approve short sales and loan modifications. So the number of foreclosures that hit the market is being reduced. Plus, in California, there continues to be moratoriums on foreclosures so that banks have more time to find ways to keep homeowners in their homes.

As usual, our real estate definitions are of great value here ....

Houses sell for current market value which is described as what buyers have paid recently for similar homes. The prices of houses go up and down strictly based on current supply and demand statistics; supply being how many houses are available for sale, demand being how many houses have sold in a given period of time. All other economic factors ... such as interest rate changes, economic conditions in the area, job creation, unemployment, etc., directly affect supply and demand. By looking at supply and demand statistics you can determine where houses prices currently are at.... and where they will be going in the future.

4 months supply of houses is considered a balanced market. Less than 4 months supply is considered a sellers market; prices go up in a sellers market. More than 4 months supply of houses is considered a buyers market; house prices go down in a buyers market. The less supply of houses available, say 1-2 months supply ... house prices may go up 10-15% per year. Eager buyers bid the prices up and market value rises.

Here are a number of recent articles that show where real estate is heading. Please bear in mind that the real estate industry, as a whole, is very dynamic!! Meaning, that prices, inventory, and what generally happens in the real estate market changes all of the time .... And that it changes very quickly.

Reports on the strong increase in house sales over the past 30-60 days.

http://www.dqnews.com/Articles/2009/News/California/Bay-Area/RRBay090716.aspx

US economy is improving 6/2009 .... Current information ...

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20090720/ap_on_bi_ge/us_economy

Our blog info on the recent success stories on short sales.

http://www.dqnews.com/Articles/2009/News/California/Bay-Area/RRBay090716.aspx

Buyer information on how to purchase a home.

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ibd/20090709/bs_ibd_ibd/20090709realestate

Seller price reductions are getting houses sold.

http://news.yahoo.com/s/nm/20090710/bs_nm/us_usa_economy_housing

The Lyons Real Estate Report is distributed monthly to approx. 950 households in the Tri Valley area. If you'd like to receive this report monthly, or if you'd like to unsubscribe, please send me an email at realestate@tomlyons.com

Thanks!

Tom