New wave of Foreclosures now not till November?

Many of my bank relationships are now saying they anticipate the foreclosure backlog we have been waiting to release since June, should start breaking free in November 2009. Good news for those of us with buyers scampering for the limited Bank Owned homes currently available in San Diego County, but will it actually come and does it even matter? Most of the sales these past few years have been sub $500,000 and many less than $300,000. If you are hoping to find one of those, or the even more competitive sub $200,000 detached homes which have been selling in Oceanside, Vista, San Marcos and Escondido from the first sub prime wave, that opportunity may be waining or may have even already passed. This next wave consisting largely from 5/1 arm resets and HELOC's and are generally more expensive. A direct result in the limited programs helping real people avoid foreclosure. Most of us fail to qualify for the Making Home Affordable program especially here in Southern California where many of our loans were jumbo. Who by the way are those government programs helping? less than 3% of defaulted homes qualify despite reports from Washington. It will be interesting to see how many foreclosures we will actually see and at what price points. There is a shortage of good inventory in all price ranges right now and the foreclosures we have all heard were coming have managed for the better part of a year to allude us. If you believe all the hype from the press and our administration, we have seen the bottom of this financial mess, I however don't share their optimism and believe the hardest of times are ahead of us. Which begs the question do you buy now or wait? If you are waiting, you have to consider the cost of money and your purchase power. The fed is printing dollars like no tomorrow, the value of our dollar is at an all time low, Interest rates have been on the rise and are expected to continue to do so. It may not be long before we see rates over 8%. Even if prices drop another 40% the interest rate difference will most likely wipe out any savings on purchase price. One thing for sure, we are in for an interesting ride.