San Diego Is Burning by Bill Roberts
It's on the national news so everybody is aware of what we are going through, but I'm sure there are lots of questions out there.
I've provided a link to live coverage from Channel 10 (ABC) which will give you a lot of answers.
So far there is more than 150,000 acres that have burned. The fire started in the East County in a mountainous area. It has spread almost to the ocean over 30 miles away. In the course of the fire more than 1000 homes have been destroyed. Over 250,000 people have been evacuated to special evacuation centers set up at local high schools, the fair grounds (The Del Mar Racetrack Where the Turf Meets the Surf made famous by Bing Crosby), and Qualcomm Stadium (the home of the Chargers). All in all, everything has been very orderly.
When this is all over we will need to ask ourselves "was this necessary?"
People that move here from some place else are often heard to say "we could use the rain." Their attitude might be appropriate where they come from, but not here. Rain does us absolutely no good and it does a lot of harm. When it rains we have over 300 car crashes on the first day. Then all the trash in the storm drains is washed into the bay. The roads dissolve causing more pot holes, as if we didn't have enough already. Then we have mudslides in the areas that burned last time we had a fire.
But the worst effect of rain is all the grasses and chaparral that grow as a result. Then it will dry out and be fuel for the inevitable fires.
Because we are basically at sea level we do not "capture" the rainwater for our water supply. Our water comes from the Sierra Nevada Mountains and the Colorado River.
We have a huge man-made "river" called the California Aqueduct which brings our water from northern and central California.
A major problem we have is all the fuel available for wildfires. It is out-of-control. Nobody really deals with it, and to make matters worse we have a system of inter-connected "green spaces" where the brush is left in its natural state. When the fires come, they can travel deep into the city utilizing these green space fuel sources.
Maybe we need to re-think the policy of maintaining green spaces in their "natural" condition.
Now for the real estate "spin" on this disaster: There are more than 1000 families that will need housing immediately. This should have the effect of absorbing a lot of the available inventory. And prices should firm up due to this demand.
San Diego will be fine. We will rebuild. I hope this time though we "solve" the problem of fuelling these fires which are sure to come again.
I have been a real estate broker since 1975. I specialize in commercial real estate, business opportunities, and finance. I coach real estate investors and teach retirement strategies. DRE #00527512
ActiveRain Corp. is not responsible for the accuracy of the site's content (which is written by members of the ActiveRain Real Estate Network) and does not endorse the views of the real estate agents, mortgage brokers, and others listed here.
Powered by the ActiveRain Real Estate Network
© 2008 ActiveRain Corp. All Rights Reserved
Your community is in our prayers. Hopefully some less "eco-freindly" ideas could prevent this from happening in the future.
Feeling your pain up here in Orange county ... not nearly as bad, but what a mess.
Thoughts are with all of you.
Chip, thanks for your prayers. It is appreciated.
Bill Roberts
Allen, As you know this is a regular "fall feature" in Southern California.
We'll survive. Thank you.
Bill Roberts
Hi Bill--Thanks for your post. I'm evacuated from my Escondido home right now. I really appreciate your opinion and viewpoint about rain and nature preserves, etc. I like it when someone chooses to stand out and is not afraid to put out a new viewpoint, even when it's not popular. Your real estate insights at the end offer me some hope. I have a client who needs to get rid of a mobile home and until now I had dim prospects of solving the problem for them because they were so upside down. With so many homes destroyed, there might be someone who wants to live on their property in a mobile home while they rebuild and maybe that will solve my client's problem.
I was reading a couple years back about how we've become so good at preventing fires that the natural ones that used to occur and quick burn to clear out the brush and old vegitation don't and we have monsters like these now. Talk about a catch twenty-two.
Sharon, I hope everything is OK for you. The fires are still raging in your area. I'm so sorry.
As for your client, I think you will be able to do something for them now.
Bill Roberts
Keith, I don't think that applies in this case. The fire has gone over an area that burned out four years ago. Little fires wouldn't have solved this problem.
Bill Roberts
Bill - thank you. It was nice to chat with you yesterday although I wish the circumstances were different.
One of the points they made on the news WAS the probem of all the rain we had in 2004 which caused all the vegetation to grow, which is now fueling the fires. I think much was learned from teh previous fires which enable preparations and communications, and perhaps also resulted in some changes in how homes were built, etc. We will learn more from this too.
It will get rebuilt but we have many months of recovery ahead. I know I will do whatever I can to help people who need assistance. The most immediate needs will be to help people find housing of any sort if they have lost their homes or had them damaged.
Stay in touch.
Jeff
Jeff, It was very nice of you to check on me.. Thank you.
The unrestricted growth of vegetation is a real problem. Also the "routes" that the fire takes down creek beds and green belts. Hopefully this time they will address these issues.
Bill Roberts
Bill, I too am wondering about the effects that this will have on the San Diego Real estate market. Every time it burns down there I call my friends and it's always, stop worrying. This time - their house and business are both likely gone.
The challenge will be that a lot of the homes that needed to be absorbed have probably been effected by these. It's going to take a while to sort through it all.
My thoughts and prayers are with everyone down in that region of the world, my old stomping grounds.
Kate, Your prayers are appreciated. We will get through this. And it will affect the houses currently listed. Over 1000 houses lost and all those people need a place to live.
Bill Roberts
It'll be interesting to see the impact on real estate sales. Don't you think those people will want to rent and then rebuild on their old lots?
Looking back to Florida and New Orleans ... from New Orleans came the Katrina cottages that are much less expensive and much more desirable as temporary housing than the mobile homes that made temporary cities in Florida.
Bill, Our prayers are with you and everyone there. It seems so horrible but I can see how it could really help some people in the real estate market. Stay safe!
Ann, Sure, a lot of them will rebuild, but there are still vacant lots from the fire four years ago. Many people will simply buy existing houses.
Bill Roberts
Sharon, I don't think there will be any mobile homes set up for these people. We can "absorb" all of them into existing rentals and houses for sale.
Bill Roberts
Ricki, There are still people under mandatory evacuation, but I think the worst is behind us. The fires won't be totally under control for at least another week. Thank you for your prayers, they are appreciated.
Bill Roberts
It's hard to grasp the scope of this disaster. We're hearing estimates of 1 billion in property damage and the sheer numbers of homes, croplands destroyed, how many people are displaced, just so sad. You're in our thoughts and prayers.
Debbie, thank you very much. I think the over-all loses will indeed exceed $1 Billion. Growers have lost over 2000 avocado trees. That value is approximately $1 million for the trees, but it will also have an ongoing lose to our economy for years to come. The houses lost will actually provide a gain to our economy as they are rebuilt.
The personal loses people have sustained cannot to quantified. All their possessions, mementos, papers, photographs, etc. are gone and cannnot be replaced.
Bill Roberts
Everyone there is in our prayers. I am seeing a lot of supportive response from the Realtor community. Great!
Thanks for commenting on Respected Economist Says Florida's Housing Market in Recovery
Dan, Thanks for your prayers. We'll be fine.
Bill Roberts
Bill:
Thanks for the update. This is truly a tragedy, I lived in Phoenix for nearly 30 years and many of our vacations were in San Diego not to mention the most important time of my life my honeymoon. We love San Diego and will keep all of you in our prayers.
Alan, we really like "Zonies here. You are welcome any time. We are through the worst of it now. Thank you for your prayers.
Bill Roberts
Great perspective Bill. I also wonder if it rains now or in the near future all the burnt areas will produce mudslides.
Hopefully some homeowners will take their home off the market and open up their homes to renters. Or maybe some of these homeowners can buy at low prices while they are rebuilding.
Nonetheless, this is a tragedy and I pray that those who have been hurt, heal quickly.
Hi Bill
How are you doing? Long time no hear.
We too in Orange Co are burning but nothing to the extent of San Diego. The only positive in all this is that it may stimulate the So Cal ecconomy a bit. We as Realtor should be on the look out for our friends and neighbors for the Scammers that are already coming to steal peoples money while pretending to have empathy for their loses of their homes.
Anyway, I hope all is going well for you.
btw your website link is not working.
Take care
Doug
Renee, just by comparing to the aftermath of the last fire, a lot of these people will in fact rent while they rebuild, some will buy now and rebuild later, and some will move away.
It will take months to really get a good picture on wgat the real affect on the market will be.
Bill Roberts
Hi Doug, How have you been? I'm re-working my other website. The stimulation to the economy is a given. All that insurance money and Federal disaster relief is definitely going to help. Give me a call when you have a chance.
Bill Roberts
I sure will Bill, give you a call that is.
I have been really busy. I have been working with a compiler and a direct seller of REO packages.
I have a couple of deals that I was to present to our Mike Watson Power Team. However since many of the members are in the Burn Zones (well who in San Diego county isn't), we were unable to meet and run some Deal Evaluations. One of the Deals (a lot split) was located in Poway on High Valley. The property sat alone on a hill surronded by brush and Chaparal (I think I spelled that correctly). I haven't heard if it survived. Should know by tomorrow.
Anyway, what were those Palm Springs properties you had available. Were they condos or homes. I have a buyer family that is looking for a Vacation property. If you have anything there that may be Seller finance or TOP please let me know.
I will call you Monday or Tuesday. OK
Doug
Bill- I am so glad you are alright. You and your wife are in my prayers. It is a tragedy. I always wonder, " when will they ever learn?" remember the song from the 60's? There has to be a way, a smart way, for man to live with nature for the good of both. Maybe the green areas need to be maintained and cared for instead of just being left in their natural state. Katerina
Katerina, This is something we keep asking, "When will they ever learn?" When the chaparral is 15 feet high and only 50 feet away from a house, what other result could you expect? There was a report on TV about "private" fire fighters that saved some very expensive homes near where other homes were lost that didn't have this protection. Something to think about.
Thank you for your thoughts and prayers.
Bill Roberts