No End in Sight
The end of the housing slump is not in sight, said Chapman University economist Esmael Adibi. He said for housing to return to historic balance with incomes, he expects median home prices in Riverside and San Bernardino counties to fall at least another 8 percent, which he expects will happen in 2009. But the price decline could be more, he added, because in such real estate cycles, "prices tend to overcorrect."
Bruce Norris, a Riverside real estate investor and consultant, predicted that the already high volume of lender-owned homes "will explode in the next 18 months" as another wave of adjustable mortgages resets to higher interest rates.
"The mood toward real estate will get very ugly," prompting potential buyers to continue renting, Norris said.
HOUSING: Bargain-hunters swarm market Source: The Californian
Foreclosed
houses and bargain-hunting buyers have flooded Southwest County's real
estate market since year-end, a turn that has slammed prices but also
hinted at a possible "bottom" to the yearlong downturn, according to a
series of sales reports and interviews with agents.
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It's all in the editorial policies of the papers. I'm sure you'll see the same slant on other subjects too.
When in doubt see rule 1.
Rule 1: Believe none of what you hear and only half of what you actually see and you will do well
The thing I noticed is that the negative one is all emotional and the positive one actually backs it with stats, interpretation and historical stats for perspective. HHmmm... Which one seems more researched?
Its the age-old question...is the glass half full? or is it half empty? and the answer ...both are true.
And I think both of your articles are true too. There is no end in sight, we are nowhere near the bottom, and its true that some folks are begining to enter the market. We wont know where the bottom was until we are on are way back up.
I see the same thing here constantly. There was a headline that said foreclosures are up. When we read the article it mentioned how Hawaii had one of the lowest foreclosure rates in the country.
You have to read behind the data. In Los Angeles and San Francisco, the papers look at a six county area for their stories. The problem is that while the data they quote might be accurate, the picture they give is not. Real Estate is local. Lumping huge areas and using data without analysis is the recipe for misinformation. For example, many areas on the west side of Los Angeles has not seen depreciation. However, if you use the data from Riverside County (which they do) where the foreclosure rate is disastrous it skews the real picture.
Exactly right Peter. Real estate is local but even the local media isn't. That's why it's up to us to get the word out. But we've gotta have the facts or we're just perceived as rah-rah for our own self-interest - kind of like the problem some people are having with the new NAR ad campaign. Thanks for checking in.
Gene
First of all, the guy from Chapman University is Mr. Doom and Gloom. He hasn't been accurate on a forecast in over 5 years. I've never understood him; when things are good, he is off; when things are bad, he is still off.
The California does a good job of researching their data. I've been interviewed by them on several occassions, and they do everything to stay balanced. I wish I could say that Adibi does the same.
Bill - right about Adibi. I'm amazed anybody even bothers to interview him anymore. He did a state of the city for us a few years back and he was so far off they were making jokes about him on the dias the following year. We've got a good relationship with the Californian, especially Chris Bagley who's been helping us out on the fraud issue and others. They do try to provide a balance - which is mall you can ask.