Refinancing your home was definetely at the center of the economic party a couple of years ago. Not any more, the number of refinances in the Santa Barbara area has slowed to a trickle.
I am going to have to change the way I format my chart pretty soon, because in some areas the number of purchase loans is outnumbering the amount of refinance loans being done in a given month.
The Santa Barbara, Goleta, Carpinteria, Montecito areas haven't quite seen the number drop that far yet, but it is the lowest it has been in years.
A year ago, all I kept hearing was that this year could possibly end up being one of the biggest refinance markets we would ever see. The folks predicting this were seeing the huge number of loans that were going to be adjusting and determining that they would all refinance.
Many borrowers were opting for programs like a fixed for 5 year loan and those loans are all about to adjust, if they aren't already. I guess the borrowers are just not being hit with the large adjustments up in their payments and or they are stuck with the loan they have since lending standards have tightened.
Whatever the reason, the refinance party is over. Someone turn out the lights.
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Greg - This is just speculation on my part, but it could be until April of 2009 before things truly start loosening up. Where rates will be at the point, my guess is higher. Even still, you'll probably be seeing some of the adjustable rates and Option Arms come due and may see some increased activity. Bottom line though, there are still people out there with higher rates because they were in a different credit and/or financial position when they took out their mortgage. Add to that the fact that folks will always need money and want to consolidate high interest debt, refi's are out there... the share of the pie will just flucuate.
Jason, well said! Refinancing is going to be interesting and a struggle for some, but there will be a need and I'm sure you will help fill it.