SANTA MONICA REAL ESTATE SNAPSHOT ~ JANUARY 2012 > HMMMMMM….

by Jodi Summers

Believe it or not, California may finally have turned the corner to a recovery. The job market is slated for slow but steady growth over the next two years, according to the latest UCLA Anderson Forecast…but, expect our sluggish housing market to continue, with no dramatic growth until 2013. "The end of a recession does not mean 'recovered from a recession,'" observes UCLA senior economist Jerry Nickelsburg. "It only means the contraction has ended. The pain remains real and persistent until solid and sustained gains occur." We’re seeing a sluggish housing market locally in Santa Monica. Comparing Dec-10 vs. Dec-11, the median sold price is down 1% from $923,000 to $915,000…a drop of $8,000, or -1%. As usual, Santa Monica is above average in our recovery. Feel good about this. In Los Angeles, the Standard & Poor's/Case-Shiller index recorded a monthly decline of 1.5% in home prices in October after sliding 0.8% in September. Year over year, L.A. prices are down 4.9%, as measured by the index. San Diego was down 4.5% from October 2010. In San Francisco prices have fallen 4.7% from a year earlier. The median home price in California in November was $244,000, down 4.3% from a year earlier. Nationally, there have been price drops in 19 of 20 cities since September. Overall, the price index slipped 1.2% month over month and fell 3.4% compared with October 2010. But, the experts are hopeful. "Have we turned the corner in the Golden State? Perhaps we have," predicts Nickelsburg. "The last two months have yielded both job growth in excess of the U.S. rate and job growth which is widespread throughout the state." Echoing the forecast’s 4^th quarter growth, home sales n Santa Monica also picked up in November and December after an October lull. Comparing Dec-10 vs. Dec-11, the number of sold properties is down 10% from 50 to 45. The UCLA report notes that since July, job growth throughout each major region of California has outpaced the national average. San Diego County, Orange County and Ventura grew at an average rate of 2%, compared to the U.S. average of 1%. "In coastal California export and technology growth has been the key to recovery," Nickelsburg notes. "A resurgence of investment and exports in 2012 will continue to drive the coastal economies." We may be recovering, but even real estate on the coast is weak. Looking at Dec-10 vs. Dec-11, the number of under contract properties in Santa Monica is down 33%...expect it to remain in the low. The current forecast is for the recent surge in employment to abate while slow growth persists on average through 2012. The rest of the United States, California’s international trading partners and increased consumer purchases will combine to generate faster growth in 2013. We’re here to help you with your commercial and investment property needs. Please contact Jodi Summers and the SoCal Investment Real Estate Group @ Sotheby’s International Realty – jodi@jodisummers.com or 310.392.1211, and let us move forward together. ** http://uclaforecast.com http://www.latimes.com/business/realestate/la-fi-harney-20120101,0,6342117.story http://www.latimes.com/business/realestate/la-fi-housing-prices-20111228,0,541656.story http://www.anderson.ucla.edu/x38937.xml https://www.terradatum.com/agentmetricsonline/agentmetrics_online.td http://www.santamonicapropertyblog.com/?p=4075 http://www.signonsandiego.com/news/2011/dec/07/ucla-state-job-market-stay-upward-track/ http://jonkeegan.com/images/sm_beach_postcard.jpg