South Lake Tahoe, CA Real Estate Update: Q1 and Q2 Housing Results

South Lake Tahoe, CA Housing: Down in demand only slightly, down in value almost 10%.

(Lake Tahoe Real Estate Blog / July 6, 2011 / Richard Bolen)

Well, it continues to be good news for South Lake Tahoe, CA home buyers. Home values are a $29,000 better deal in general for home buyers than they were six months ago.

Half of all South Lake Tahoe, CA home buyers are purchasing a distressed property, and a little more than half of all buyers are making their purchase under $300,000. Rather than being influenced by demand, these two factors more than anything else evident are responsible for South Lake Tahoe home value decline.

Housing demand continues at essentially the same pace as that of 2010, where South Lake Tahoe saw more homes sold than in any year since 2005. As of June 30, the end of Q2, there are four fewer single family home sales this year than there were last year at the same time.

The details and source charts follow.

Housing Demand :
South Lake Tahoe housing demand is only a scant less than it was a year ago (10 sales less to be exact).

Q1 2011 total single family homes sold: 116
Q1 homes sold last year: 104

Q2 2011 total single family homes sold: 122
Q2 homes sold last year: 138

2010 total number single family homes sold: 507
Total number homes sold in last 365-days: 497

Housing Values :
South Lake Tahoe housing values are best tracked via the median sold price. Because one singularly unique high-end South Lake Tahoe neighborhood has a significant effect on the overall median sold price, we will look at sales results that do and do not include The Tahoe Keys.

In summary, there is continued price decline in South Lake Tahoe home values.

Q1 2011 median sold price (Tahoe Keys not included): $281,250.
Q1 median sold price last year (Tahoe Keys not included): $314,833

Q1 2011 median sold price (Tahoe Keys included): $290,500.
Q1 median sold price last year (Tahoe Keys included): $327,583

Q2 2011 median sold price (Tahoe Keys not included): $266,500.
Q2 median sold price last year (Tahoe Keys not included): $297,500

Q2 2011 median sold price (Tahoe Keys included): $294,833.
Q2 median sold price last year (Tahoe Keys included): $330,333.

2011 median sold price to date:
with Tahoe Keys: $290,000.
without Tahoe Keys: $270,400.

2010 median sold price:
with Tahoe Keys: $319,000.
without Tahoe Keys: $299,000.

The Tahoe Keys Difference:
Normally The Tahoe Keys skews the South Lake Tahoe median sold price upward from 2% to slightly more than 4%. In 2010 that skew was 6.3%. As of the end of Q2 this year it is 6.8%. In other words there is not much difference than last year, other than the upward contribution the Tahoe Keys has to the overall South Lake Tahoe median sold price is higher than in past years.

The Bottom Line: (last 180-days without Tahoe Keys)
The current South Lake Tahoe median sold price is $270,400.
It was $299,000 for all of last year.
This is a decline of $28,600, or 9.5% over the last 6 months.

This is excellent news for prospective South Lake Tahoe, CA home buyers.

Distressed Sales :
The sales of distressed properties continues to affect the South Lake Tahoe, CA median sold price. The decline the market is experiencing includes the sales of bank owned homes and short sales, the incidence of which is increasing in South Lake Tahoe, CA. As stated above, at present half of all South Lake Tahoe, CA home buyers are purchasing a distressed property.

Q1 2011 distressed sales: 47.4%
Q1 distressed sales last year: 58.3%

Q2 2011 distressed sales: 58.6%
Q2 distressed sales last year: 45.3%

Total 2011 distressed sales: 51.2%
Total distressed sales last year: 46.4%

The Bottom Line:
To date, there is a 4.8% increase in distressed property sales in South Lake Tahoe, CA this year over last year.

What most people are buying :
Preferences home buyers have for a price range also effects home values, which makes sense. If more buyers are buying in a particular price range than anywhere else, that certainly favors the median sold price to said price range. Let's examine:

As cited above, the current South Lake Tahoe, CA median sold price is $270,400.

Q1 2011 single family home sales under $300,000: 53.5%
Q1 sales under $300,000 last year: 42.9%

Q2 2011 single family home sales under $300,000: 54.2%
Q2 sales under $300,000 last year: 44.1%

Total 2011 South Lake Tahoe, CA sales under $300,000: 53.5%
Total sales under $300,000 last year: 39.8%

The Bottom Line:
There is a 13.7% increase in the number of homes sold under $300,000 this year compared to last year.

Characteristics of the median sold house : (from now back to then)
As cited above, the South Lake Tahoe median sold price is $270,400, which falls in the price range from $250,000 to $300,000. The key characteristics of this price range are different today than they were last year, and much different then they were years ago. The article before this one looks at these characteristics in detail, but in summary here are the differences in the $250,000 to $300,000 South Lake Tahoe house since the market high in 2006..

• Houses in this price range are 30% newer than they were 5 years ago.

• They are 99% bigger.

• They are 54% cheaper in price per square foot.

• Twice as many of them have sold in Q1 and Q2 this year than 5 years ago.

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Sources for this report:

The chart below indicates Q1 – Q2 2011 South Lake Tahoe, CA real estate sales activity (full size chart here).

The chart below indicates all 2010 South Lake Tahoe, CA home sales activity. (full size chart here)

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Previous Lake Tahoe Real Estate Blog posts of interest:

Apr 2, 2011: Q1 2011 South Lake Tahoe, CA Real Estate Report
Jan 2, 2011: 2010 South Lake Tahoe Housing Demand Report
Nov 16, 2010: What People are Buying: South Lake Tahoe 2010 Home Sales per Month
Nov 15, 2010: South Lake Tahoe 2010 Home Sales: Where We Are Now
Oct 9, 2010: Analysis of 2010 South Lake Tahoe, CA homes for sale
Oct 2, 2010: On Target with South Lake Tahoe, CA Homes for sale
August 31, 2010: US Home Prices Up… what about South Lake Tahoe?
August 27, 2010: I Woke Up this Morning… to the South Lake Tahoe Blues.
July 1, 2010: South Lake Tahoe Foreclosures: No Change Yet.
May 15, 2010: Where is the New Foreclosures Deluge?
November 15, 2009: Foreclosure Filings Down in October, what does it mean?