How to Improve Your Odds... if You Choose.(LAKE TAHOE REAL ESTATE BLOG) We did this for our South Lake Tahoe readers, but Active Rain members can use this as a basis of presenting the odds of selling a home in your market. Just change the numbers and "South Lake Tahoe" or your market, and enjoy.)
There were 373 homeowners who successfully sold their house in South Lake Tahoe, CA in 2007. There were 756 homeowners who did not. In other words, more people could not sell their home in South Lake Tahoe than those who could. (See how we got these numbers below)
All current national market indicators foresee similar housing market trends in the short term, and likely throughout 2008. We’re seeing no change as of yet in South Lake Tahoe. All market indicators point to an advantage for Buyers. Yes, your housing market is slower than it was two years ago. But we all already knew that.
One Year Odds and Six Months Odds:
There were 1,485 homes to hit the market in South Lake Tahoe, CA in the last 365 days. With only 367 sales in that time frame, the odds of a successful sale were 24.7%.
In the last six months, 1,097 homes have come on the market. With only 194 sales during that time, the odds of a successful sale were 17.7%.
Another Way of Looking at It:
What, you say, I’ve only got about a 18% to 25% chance of selling my house... in six months to a year? Well, we’re talking “averages” here. And sales averages are that place where good performance and poor performance meets. For every strike-out, there’s a hit so to speak. The idea is of course how to improve one’s individual odds.
Good Performance Odds: (here in South Lake Tahoe)
So, there are anomalies to every average. Here, lets call an anomaly a successful house sale, one that beats the odds. And also here, the anomaly gives us hope, and it also gives us data... that you can use to make sure you get more hits than swats:
The Glass is Half Full :
Now a home seller has two different odds to look at, either one has a 25% chance of selling their house in South Lake Tahoe in a year, or a 35% chance of selling it in 90 days or less. And it’s a rather simple choice really, which odds look better to you? Do you want to Sell? Or just keep your house on the market?
If one prefers to have their house sell in 90 days or less, one can look at the recent home sales that did occur in less than 90 days and study that success. Said success is always based on finding that perfect balance between location, condition and price. One has no control over location, of course, but one does have control over condition and price. And one can absolutely find glass-half-full odds of selling one’s home in 90 days or less, if one is willing.
How Do I Find that Perfect Balance?
Good question, and it is never an exact science, but it’s not rocket science either. Each home is unique, and each successful sale uses information and strategies from other successful sales, which are then altered somewhat to account for what is different about a particular house. The end result is basically a variation on a central theme, one that is consistent with market reality, and customized for your home.
Finding that perfect balance can only come through teamwork... between you and a real estate agent you trust. A very good real estate agent. We are that, and we’d like to be on a winning team with you, plain and simple. But that’s not our sole intent here. For us, our goal is to earn your trust through market knowledge and good old fashioned hard work.
Here’s what you need to have and know : (to either Sell or Buy)
What All of the Numbers Are :
Here’s what we provide in an excel workbook for every client. Each page has a statistics chart that comes with the data. (see actual example we did for a client in 2007 here).
How We Got the Number: (of homeowners that did not successfully sell.)
Click Here (for something cool)
Our Bolero Button? (It's in the sidebar under mybloglog.)
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Search our site for South Lake Tahoe Real Estate and South Lake Tahoe Real Estate Information. Find all current South Lake Tahoe Real Estate Market Conditions at www.laketahoerealestateblog.com.
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How to Gain Market Control as a Buyer in South Lake Tahoe.
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We Made it to the Other Air & Space Museum, finally.
From South Lake Tahoe to the Old Ebbitt Grill
A Great Opportunity for a Great Son.
ActiveRain Corp. is not responsible for the accuracy of the site's content (which is written by members of the ActiveRain Real Estate Network) and does not endorse the views of the real estate agents, mortgage brokers, and others listed here.
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Great information. This will help me out alot.
wow what a great read and great post!
Lots of good information in this post. Thank you and good luck
Rich
Rightfully featured guys, good work!!!
I appreciate the info within this post.
Wow! You are very through. You have great market knowledge. You just raised the bar for me. Thanks.
Great link to glass of water. Clever and creative.
Excellent post Richard. I love easy to understand yet very comprehensive analysis. The consumer needs to be able to understand what we are talking about and you have acheived that beautifully. Good job.
GARY - This is a great example of why it is so important to price your home competitively and to have it in the best possible condition. It takes doing the right things to get your home sold. Unfortunately, too many agents are still willing to tell homeowners what they want to hear in order to
buyget the listing. Until we as a profession stop taking drastically overpriced listings, these statistics are not likely to change much. Congrats on a well-deserved feature.Too bad more agents aren't willing to tell the truth. Any home can sell in any market... it it is priced right... and the right price last year isn't now.
Loved what I read, but I am now enjoying your cool Ipod Shuffle...how did you get that?
WOW! ! You know that I'm a statistical junkie. You do this stuff just to tease me.
You are the masters of real estate stats.
excellent...excellent work. I appreciate the time you took not only to write this article, but also the time you clearly spend preparing to take a listing, which no doubt, makes you very successful in your marketplace
I am so impressed- terrific presentation...Ihope you don't mind but I am going to copy your concept...I think you said that was okay? This is another helpful tool to stress the significance of pricing!!! Now, I have to figure out how to implement the the numbers and make them appear so appealing as you did. Any hints would be greatly appreciated.
Your connection with your buyers/sellers is obvious; who would be foolish enough to work with anyone else? Terrific, as always.
I love this! Thanks, I will be using it tomorrow.
Gary, this coupled with the concept of BIC will go far in convincing home sellers that there is a good way to be in the sold statistics and not the expired. BTW, BIC stands for "Best in Class". I love that concept and helping my sellers to have BIC properties.
I'm with Lenn...I absolutely LOVE this post. I'm bookmarking it as an example of excellence in real estate research. :) So glad this was Featured!!!
Fantastic Work! I don't believe there's enough numbers available here, but I love the way you've made your case. The MLS is not as popular here.
Nice blog, thanks for giving us some very good information
Love your statistical analysis, it is just awesome, thanks for some great ideas to emulate and implement in my business model.
Great information! You really do a detailed sheet for your clients--impressive! Congrats on the little gold star!
Gosh guys...I thought Realtors were supposed to look pretty and drive luxury cars. You make it look like hard work!
Seriously, Lake Tahoe buyers and sellers are lucky to have you. And I'm lucky I just do something simple like home loans. :)
Thank you for sharing this. Highly analytical clients love this kind of information. I appreciate you setting this up for others to use. Having the outline to direct additional research is a monumental help. I will use your format for a client I just started working with.
Awesome post Gary! I have a similar presentation, but your modus operandi is even more in depth. In a market such as this, there is no room for guesswork or emotions. This is "Spartan Real Estate"!
Great job yet again! Thank you!
I bookmarked and will refer to this article again and again.
Holy Cow! You guys are statistical maniacs. Of course, I mean that in a good way.
I was just at a meeting with the founder of Remax..he said that in the US there is 9 months worth of inventory and in FL it's worse..we are at 17.5 months...that means even if not one more over priced listing pops up we have a long way to go. I'm turning down more...Id rather be the second ...third of fourth agent in by the time the real serious sellers decide to realistically price the home...I just had a very good client who we sold her home but I told here although we got a price she liked...the appraisal might be an issue and it was by 19K...she now has a big decision to make.
You keep me coming back for more. LOVE the numbers you provide, and hope to provide some semblance of the information you provide to your customers to my customers. Thank you again....
Team Gary;
I am a believer in numbers. I depend on the analyzing of these numbers to present the facts to a buyer or a seller. I also have them sign or initial this information so that they are fully aware of the direction the market is going in. My one challenge has been that we deal with different types of personality's and some buyers/sellers are very receptive to understanding the ingredients that go into a success offer that is being presented and a seller getting his/her home sold in a difficult market and other that just do not grasp the concept that numbers are important.
Numbers are a intricate part of selling real estate. I applaud your aptitude for details.
Lorraine
Great post. What in the world is a Bolero button. I was scared to click it. It sounds like a contagious disease...lol.
Gary - You really know how to pack a punch! This is really terrific information. Of course the numbers are really important. Adam hit the nail on the head with his comments. In a weaker Real Estate climate pricing is 75% of the marketing. Convincing the seller is another great skill, especially when there are others who exagerate the truth.
I have had clients tell me that my CMA, which includes only about 1/2 of what you guys have was really thorough. I'm gonna have to revise it now. You're making me look bad :)
Great format, easy to understand. I've got you bookmarked, again (I still go back and laugh at your toothpaste blog). Great post. Thank you for sharing!
Thank you! This is a really great idea and one that sets you apart from the other brokers! I am planning on doing neighborhood reports as a marketing tool and this is just priceless. You have quite a style. Keep up the good work.
Thank you for posting this. I keep some of this information saved on my computer and printed out to answer clients' questions, but your version is so much more thorough than mine. Looks like it's time to add more. :)