When Cometh the Bottom? April 6, 2009

Isn't THAT the million dollar question...

Well, no one has the crystal ball, but we all have our sources of knowledge and expertise to try to gauge when we'll see the up-swing.

Some are saying that the bottom has already come.

Some are saying that we won't see it for some time.

I say, I don't know for sure, but what I do know for Orange County, CA is this:

The Below $500K Market is already there.

We are seeing good properties under $500K being snatched up within a week in Northeast Orange County (Placentia, Yorba Linda, Brea, Fullerton, Anaheim, Anaheim Hills). There are multiple offers on properties that are in good condition. So, essentially, we are THERE for that price range.

What about the over $500,000 range? When will we see the bottom for THOSE homes?

A great article came out in the Orange County Register (our local newspaper) by Jonathan Lansner. He interviewed a private banker, Ray Dellerba, CEO of Pacific Mercantile Bank in Costa Mesa. Dellerba nailed the downturn by getting OUT of residential lending late 2005. He just started lending on residential properties again. Four decades of banking and that kind of foresight makes you listen when he talks. When asked his prediction of the "bottom," Dellerba replied "November" without a flinch. His reasoning? People are sick of being in the dumps and tight with their money and those with jobs will want a good Christmas for their family.

What is MY prognostication?

Summer of this year, July. Government incentives, especially for first time buyers, still-high FHA loan limits, low interest rates, and considerably less REO / short sale inventory in Northeast O.C. will fuel the best housing market we've seen since 2004.

I welcome your comments.

Nic Petrossi, Prudential CA Realty

(714) 272-3646

npetrossi@yahoo.com

www.NicPetrossi.com