Denver Metro Real Estate Market-October 2009

Up and Down We Go, Where We'll Stop Nobody Knows...

Inspired by Jerry Murphy's post on the Phoenix market yesterday, I decided to take a look at Denver.

October was the second month in 2009 where sales were actually higher than in 2008. Although total volume is significantly down compared to last year, we are seeing a lot of activity with properties priced below $200,000. A lot of that activity is due to investors snatching up the REOs And while there is good reason to suspect the tax credit for boosting sales, there is no clear evidence to support that in the Denver Market.

Overall, the outlook doesn’t seem to follow any meaningful pattern. Compared to one year ago, active listings are down, under contract is up, sales volume is down, and average price is up. The yo-yo effect could be due to almost anything in this market. There are so many variables in play it’s hard to predict genuine consumer trend that isn’t influenced by the many subsidies and incentives that have come on in the last year. With the tax credit extended, we’re likely to continue the roller coaster ride for a while.

Most locals agree that we have at least leveled off at the bottom of the market and may even be moving toward recovery. But with the tax credit extended, we may continue the roller coaster ride for a while.

Here are the numbers for October:

Single Family (Res + Cond)*

• Active listing inventory was 8,945 at the end of Oct 09
  • Down 4% versus prior month
  • Compared with Oct 08, this represents an 18% decrease
• Under contract listings were at 4,910 units
  • Down 6% compared with prior month
  • Up 9% compared with same month year ago
• Sales volume (units) totaled 3,958
  • Up 3% compared to last month
  • Down 8% compared to Oct 08
• Year-to-date (YTD) sales are down 15%
  • 41,683 units sold YTD 08 vs 35,512 units sold YTD 09
• Average sales price was $238,807, down 5% compared to prior month
  • 3% increase from Oct 08, $232,284 avg price

Residential*

• Available inventory was at 14,376 active listings, down 4% compared to prior month
  • This represents a 19% decrease from same month year ago
• Under contract listings decreased 6% to 3,800 from Sep 09 figures, and were up 4% compared to Oct 08
• Sales were up 2% from month ago to 3,052 units sold
  • Compared with Oct 08, units sold dropped 10%
• YTD sales (units) were down 15%
  • 33,048 units sold YTD 08 vs 28,035 units sold YTD 09
• Average sales price was $261,771
  • Down 4% compared with Sep 09, $261,771 avg price
  • Up 5% versus Oct 08, $250,172 avg price
• Median sales price was $222,000, down 1% versus prior month, and up 8% from Sep 08

Condo*

• At close of Sep 09, there were 4,569 available units
  • Down 5% compared to prior month and down 13% compared to Oct 08
• There was a 7% drop in under contract units compared with Sep 09
  • Under contract listings were up 30% versus same month year ago
• 906 units sold in Oct 09, up 7% compared to prior month and up 1% from Oct 08
• YTD there were 7,477 units sold, down 13% compared with 8,635 units sold YTD 08
• Average sales price was $161,451, down 4% versus Sep 09 and down 2% compared to Oct 08
• Median price was up even at $135,000 compared with prior month
  • Median price increased 4% from $140,000 in Oct 08

Please feel free to contact me with any comments or questions. I look forward to the day when we can get data like this on 'Green' properties. You can visit my website at E3GreenHOMES.com

John Thomas

*Data obtained from Metrolist Monthly Comparison Reports

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