As I continue to research communities throughout the day while performing area appraisals, I am finding some strength returning to certain communities.
The media would have us believe that the Florida housing market is still crashing - and it is in some areas.
However, there are also some communities which are picking up and are actually considered stable again!
I recently was appraising a home in Greater Pines in Clermont, FL. This is a subdivision situated just south of Highway 50 off of Hancock Rd in Clermont.
You can see a view of the community by clicking HERE.
This is the first time in the last 6 months where I have been able to write some positive comments about a neighborhood in Clermont!
Typically, the decline has continued in the region, and then when looking at the specific "micro market" - the sales were continuing down as well!
As you can see, the "boom" for this neighborhood actually began in 2001 and continued through the end of 2006!
But then the "bust" we have all experienced came in 2007. It would seem from this overview as well, that market prices are still declining.
However, when you look at the specific market data for the last quarter, a different view comes into focus:
Judging the data from 2007 to present, the trend shows "flattening" in the last 60 days, indicating that the decline has halted, and sales are now going to the point of being "stable". Not increasing again, but not losing value each month as well! In all of 2007, there were only 20 closed sales posted in the MLS. However, as of June 2008, there have been 7 closed sales and 10 pending. That is some good news on the horizon for activity in the community again!
If you are a homeowner in Greater Pines, then congratulations on sitting through this decline! Sit still long enough, and you may see values come back up again as well!
If you are a Realtor selling homes in Greater Pines, make sure you challenge the appraiser to look closely at the data! In reviewing appraisers I find some who are saying a market is stable when it is still declining, and some who are riding the declining bandwagon even when the data shows stable! As appraisers, we have to report the ACTUAL trends and data - not just what "everyone else" is reporting. Our job as an appraiser is to decipher the data and come to credible, relevant conclusions to assist our clients in making good decisions for lending, selling, or buying.
Take heart.....it's not ALL bad news!
Make it a productive day!
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AUTHOR: Richard D Ferris - AmcAppraisalsinc.com - Servicing all of Lake, Orange, Osceola, Polk, and Seminole Counties. Also servicing Deltona, Deland, and Orange City in Volusia County. - Phone 877-789-5249 or email me: richard@amcappraisalsinc.com |
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I am a Florida State Certified Appraiser servicing all of Lake, Orange, Osceola, Polk, and Seminole Counties. I also perform appraisals in Deltona, Deland, and Orange City in Volusia County.
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Great to hear some GOOD NEWS! Thank you.
Now if we can just get the media to believe that we are on our way up!
Good to see someone is tracking activity in their area. The media is always 9 to 12 months behind on their information. It's too bad that people list to the talking heads.
I get calls all the time from appraisers asking me if any of the deals we did had sellers concessions. I don't carry my files with me so it's hard for me to give an answer. I do hear appraisers that are now discounting the comps even more based on the neighborhood and how many shorts and foreclosures going on.
Neal, I wouldn't discount a neighborhood MORE just because there are short sales, etc - but I would consider whether they are driving the market, or just a small part of the market segment. I typically will consider short sales as alternative sales, but when there are "normal" sales - I'll take them since they better represent non-distressed sellers. In some newer communities though, I am finding the majority of sales to be brand new homes, never occupied, and sold as short sales. When these are part of the inventory - why would someone buy a brand new home when they can get a heck of a discount on a short sale or bank owned?
Hang in there! Many central Florida markets are showing signs of picking up again!
If you don't contineously analyze the market, you won't know its direction. Closed sales reflect a market that was. Pending sales reflect the market that is. Graphing "segmented data" over various time periods provides perspective. As the market moves, pending sales have greater significance, since they reflect the curret trends, postive or negative.
You won't know if or when the market has shifted unless you are segmenting the sales data and graphing the trends. The media reports Case-Shiller and OFHEO data which lags by 2-3 months. Graphing market data on the local level will keep you ahead of the media and identify trends long before they are reported ... the real estate investor's dream.
Good job ...
Thank you Patrick! It was your class which really lit the fire - then with Anthony's DVD instructions - it has really been a positive investment into my career! Being part of a community of appraisers and Realtors who care about the job - it's priceless! Thanks for the comments!
Richard Ferris
AmcAppraisalsinc.com