Orlando Real Estate, Winter Garden Fl. Real Estate - Housing Bust is here, Honker Down!

Though the national index figures reflect the illusion we most favor -- a steady and virtually guaranteed rise in home prices -- a very different picture emerges when you examine price indexes by state or metropolitan area. Here are some examples.

• In Houston, the first Texas city to fall in the oil bust, the home-price index peaked at 108.5 in 1983. It also bottomed early, hitting 81.5 in 1987. But it was a long bottom: The index didn't recover to its 1983 level until 1997. So recovery from the market top took a full 14 years.

• San Antonio peaked in 1984 at 109.7, didn't bottom out until it hit 82.5 in 1990 and didn't recover to its old high until 1995, a period of 11 years.

• Austin peaked in 1986 at 100.1, falling to 72.7 in 1991 and reaching recovery in 1994, about eight years.

• Dallas also peaked in 1986, at 110.1, bottomed at 94.3 in 1989 and regained its old peak in 1997, a period of 11 years.

The Texas template tells us we could be in for a 14% to 25% decline and an eight-year to 14-year wait for recovery. That's real history. It's not hyperventilation from the Chicken Little chorus.

You should also know that big-time housing comedowns aren't unique to Texas. Comedowns also hit other markets. Los Angeles peaked in 1990, bottomed in 1995 and wasn't fully recovered until 2000. Boston peaked in 1988, bottomed in 1992 and hit its recovery number in 1997.

Bottom line: Love your house for the shelter and peace it provides.