Are Home Prices in Atlanta Near a Bottom?

Below is a chart I created using the S&P Case Shiller Index data. It shows the 20 metro areas that they cover.

I added the data for inflation(the black squares) which I got from the Bureau of Labor Statistics(BLS).

Over the long term, I would say it's a fair statement to say that housing prices follow the rate of inflation. In the short term, prices are more affected by supply and demand. The Case Shiller Index has an equilibration point at the year 2000 starting at the value of 100. Going by the inflation rate from the BLS calculator, that value adjusted for inflation should be at 123.

Atlanta's number is currently at 109. So another 9% decrease in prices will get us back to the level of 2000 and it will make the housing prices 20% below where they would be if they had kept up with inflation.

Only Detroit and Cleveland are have a lower index value than Atlanta. The Case Shiller Index is about two months delayed so it might be that the index for Atlanta in April might already be at 100 again.

Other markets like Miami, LA, and D.C. need to fall another 30-40% before they reach the levels they had back in 2000. If you extrapolate those lines, it might take another 12-18 months before those markets reach those levels.