Dr. Lawrence Yun NAR's Chief Economists speech in Boise Idaho

It was a pleasure listening to Dr. Yun's perspective again today as he tailored his speech to the Idaho market. I have had the privilege of hearing him speak at several NAR meetings in Chicago and in Washington, DC previously.

Some of the key take away points for me today included:

• Of the $800 million in stimulus money handed out , $10 million of it is doing what it was intended and that is the $8K First Time Homebuyer Tax Credit;
• The market is still not quite self sustaining since many buyers are still on the sidelines concerned about even lower pricing;
• Even though pricing is lower than year ago numbers, the trend is reversing and month over month numbers have been improving for 3-4 months;
• Nationally, we are at 5 months of increases in pending sales activity (seasonally adjusted);
• The removal of the excess bubble has already occurred and we are overshooting the correction now;
• Annual increases in appreciation is about 3-4 percent since 1970 so we are now below that curve;
• New construction inventory now stands at below that of the pre-boom days;
• Population growth and housing formation models indicate we should need about 1.3 - 1.7 million new homes a year and we are building way below that now;
• Even in 2001-2002 sub prime loans averaged 12 percent that were 90+ days delinguent;
• Current price increases annualized in parts of California may equate to 15% increases in property values;
• Major issues have shifted from Short Sales to HVCC and appraisal issues;
• Nevada and Arizona are also coming back well;
• Employment lags production numbers in the economy since companies can absorb additional production prior to having to hire. Employers typically wait to make sure the demand is sustainable first.
• The number of renters that can afford to buy modestly priced homes has increased nearly 50% in recent years from 11 million to 16 million.